2024 men’s singles Grand Slam (and Olympics) predictions

The 2024 tennis season is on the immediate horizon, which means it’s time to make predictions for the year’s four Grand Slams. Can Novak Djokovic add to his haul? Will Rafael Nadal be back in contention? Is Jannik Sinner due for his first slam title? Those are just some of the burning questions.

Australian Open: Novak Djokovic

Djokovic has not lost at the Australian Open since the 2018 fourth round against Hyeon Chung. Until he loses again, it’s pretty much impossible to pick against him Down Under. Obviously the list for formidable contenders is growing, with Carlos Alcaraz now a two-time major champion, Jannik Sinner surging toward the top of the rankings, Alexander Zverev back to his pre-injury self, and even Rafael Nadal on the comeback trail. But Djokovic is the undisputed king of Melbourne Park and if 2023 was any indication the 36-year-old is not slowing down any time soon–not in Melbourne and not anywhere else.

Runner-up (if on opposite side of the draw): Jannik Sinner

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French Open: Carlos Alcaraz

At just 20 years old, Alcaraz is already halfway to the career Grand Slam. He may be three-fourths of the way there if not for being physically unable to compete with Djokovic in the semis of the 2023 French Open. The Spaniard had a real shot to win that tournament and has also proven his worth on clay with two Madrid Masters titles plus multiple triumphs at the ATP 500 in Barcelona. Although Djokovic is amazing on all surfaces, it’s arguably easier to take him down on clay than on hard courts or grass.

Runner-up (if on opposite side): Novak Djokovic

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2024 Paris Olympics: Rafael Nadal

This is definitely a longshot pick, but if Nadal has a chance to win anything big in 2024 his best bet is probably at the Olympics. Beating him in three-out-of-five on clay used to be the toughest task in tennis, but given Nadal’s age (37) and physical state it’s probably easier to beat him over five sets as opposed to just three. That’s why I think he has a better chance on the red clay of Roland Garros at the Olympics as opposed to the French Open. Nadal will be extremely motivated for what could be his last appearance at RG and perhaps even the final tournament of his career. If he is healthy going into it, he might have a shot.

Runner-up (if on opposite side): Alexander Zverev

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Wimbledon: Jannik Sinner

Surprisingly, Djokovic’s lone Grand Slam blemish in 2023 came at Wimbledon. Now that he is no longer invincible at the All-England Club, challengers will believe that they have a chance. Nobody other than Djokovic (and Alcaraz, the defending champion) will have more confidence than Sinner. The Italian lost to Djokovic in straight sets during 2023 semifinal action, but he pushed the Serb to five sets in the 2022 quarterfinals–in a year when Djokovic was pretty much dominant against every other Wimbledon opponent. Sinner’s time is coming; it may come in SW19.

Runner-up (if on opposite side): Hubert Hurkacz

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U.S. Open: Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev is quite simply amazing at the U.S. Open. It is the scene of his lone major title (2021) and he also reached the final in 2019 (lost to Nadal) and 2023 (lost to Djokovic). Medvedev’s run this past summer included an impressive semifinal beatdown of Alcaraz. He flew under the radar just a bit throughout 2023 due to the excellence of Djokovic, Alcaraz, and Sinner, but the 27-year-old Russian was quietly very, very good–as usual. Medvedev is a self-proclaimed hard-court specialist, so a second triumph in New York would hardly be surprising.

Runner-up (if on opposite side): Carlos Alcaraz

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2014 was the last time we had four different men’s singles Grand Slam champions (three different players won the three slams in 2020, but Wimbledon was cancelled). Djokovic has a good chance to win win multiple majors in 2024, but he is 36 years old and his biggest challengers (Nadal no longer being included on that list) are only getting better and better. We may see more parity than we have in recent seasons on the ATP Tour.

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