Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz, the top 2 players in the world, have taken turns missing tournaments. Alcaraz was sidelined from the 2022 Nitto ATP Finals and this year’s Australian Open; Djokovic won both. Djokovic couldn’t play in either Indian Wells or Miami; Alcaraz won the former and reached the semis of the latter.
Now it’s Alcaraz who is out again, this time skipping the Rolex Monte-Carlos Masters. Djokovic, who returned to the No. 1 ranking after the 19-year-old Spaniard failed to defend his 2022 Miami title, is back for the European clay-court swing. With neither Alcaraz nor Rafael Nadal playing this coming week, the 35-year-old Serb is a huge favorite to lift the trophy in Monte-Carlo. No. 2 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas has struggled with a shoulder injury, No. 3 Daniil Medvedev has never been at his best on clay, and No. 4 Casper Ruud has been in a slump this season.
Who—if anyone—can challenge Djokovic?
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters
Where: Monte-Carlo, Monaco
Surface: Clay
Points: 1000
Prize money: 5,779,335 Euros
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Stefanos Tsitsipas
Draw analysis: Djokovic’s half of the draw certainly isn’t where you want to be—and not just because of Djokovic. Sinner, arguably the hottest player on tour right now outside of Alcaraz and Medvedev, is also in the top quarter of the bracket. A Djokovic-Sinner quarterfinal should probably be the final. However, the Italian won’t get caught looking ahead; he may have to beat either Hubert Hurkacz or Sebastian Baez before even getting to Djokovic.
Elsewhere in the top half, Medvedev is in a section with Holger Rune, Cameron Norrie, Alexander Zverev, Matteo Berrettini, and Alexander Zverev. Norrie is in the best form among that list of challengers, but Alexander Zverev is showing signs of heating up and is plenty capable on clay. Medvedev won’t have an easy time advancing deep in this tournament.
The other side of the bracket is clearly the place to be. Tsitsipas is the two-time defending champion in Monte-Carlo but is a shadow of his real self right now. Ruud will have to do a lot more than play well at a small ATP 250 in Estoril to prove that he is back on track. Taylor Fritz is the only guy in the bottom half playing consistently stellar and clay is his worst surface. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, the surprise runner-up last spring, could make another run as an unseeded player along with Jiri Lehecka, Nicolas Jarry, and perhaps even Andy Murray or Stan Wawrinka.
First-round upset alert: Miomir Kecmanovic over (16) Lorenzo Musetti. Kecmanovic currently finds himself in the Estoril final. His second ATP title would also be his second on clay. Musetti really doesn’t have much of a surface advantage and the Italian isn’t playing well in general right now.
Second-round upset alert: Richard Gasquet over (6) Holger Rune. Based on what we have seen out of Thiem this season, you have to figure that Gasquet has a good chance of winning that first-round match. If he does, the Frenchman just might parlay it into an upset of Rune. The Dane has struggled since suffering a wild loss to Rublev in round four of the Australian Open.
Hot: Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz, Jannik Sinner, Cameron Norrie, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Bernabe Zapata Miralles, Ben Shelton, Miomir Kecmanovic
Cold: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alex de Minaur, Borna Coric, Matteo Berrettini, Dominic Thiem, Alexander Bublik, Roberto Bautista Agut, David Goffin, Diego Schwartzman
Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev over Cameron Norrie, Casper Ruud over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Taylor Fritz over Nicolas Jarry
Semifinals: Djokovic over Zverev and Ruud over Fritz
Final: Djokovic over Ruud
I would be shocked if Novak doesn’t win this
Well he hasn’t done too well here since 2015.
Who else is going to win? Tsitsi has won it twice but he has some injury issue. I can’t see anyone on Novak’s side of the draw who will beat him. Ruud has found some form in Estoril but no way would he beat Novak.
It probably has lost meaning to him. Once he won and earned a certain amount, the prestige of Monte Carlo lost its significance.
Now he doesn’t know what he’s playing for and with a long clay season ahead, a loss at MC has little bearing on his prospects at RG. The older he got the more he had to conserve his energy, as well.
However, being out since Doha and in a tight contest for the number one spot, he may be more motivated than he has been in recent years.
For once I didn’t pick Djoko .or Tsitsi.
Sinner has a good chance with Italian support just like Fognini in 2019.
Plus he due a master’s title.
Like your picks for MC Big Al. Very bold……..;)
Yeah they could fly like an eagle, or crash and burn…
Watch Novak sail to the title now…
MC is, for whatever reason, Nole’s worst CC masters, even he won it twice, he tends to bomb out in the early rounds.
I wouldn’t bet on him winning it, Tsitsipussy is ready, shoulder injury is past, Rune and Sinner are up there too, one of them will be a winner.
Nevertheless, go Nole, get ready for RG👍
Another thing, Nole is committed to Banja Luka open next week, which is basically Serbia Open just moved to Banja Luka this year since Djokovic family is updating courts and stands in Belgrade in order to upgrade Serbia Open to 500 category.
I sincerely hope that he is going to skip Madrid after that, since playing 4 CC tournaments before RG is way too much, that’s what Alcaraz realised when he pulled out of MC due to “injury”. He’ll rather try to defend Barcelona and Madrid an play Rome.
Though Nole can always bomb out in early rounds😉
Just looked at the “Who will win Monte-Carlo?” list, why Rune is not on the list?
Well, You can try checking other; and write Rune in. But the last time I tried it, Ricky’s poll would not accept it.
Therefore, I ask Ricky, have you fixed the “other” option?
The point is, he deserves to be on the list, way before few on the list, and not to be “other”, he earned it with his results and his game, even I am no fan of his.
It was just my observation, I don’t vote.
Agree with Nole’s opinion that Sinner, Alcaraz and Rune are likely to become next big 3 in tennis (big 4 never existed, it was made ip by media, of course British one).
It will be joy watching them, different personalities and different styles…..go Sinner.
Agree with Big Al….Sinner!!
There will never be another big 3 because the unique attributes that those 3 players possessed in combination is/was as rare as hen’s teeth
I doubt Rune will ever be like the big 3 because he keeps l lacks the mental fortitude. The guy can’t seem to relax and lacks self awareness.
Alcarez’s game is based on a bit too much trickery and lacks the foundation that the big 3 had, hence his inconsistency.
And Sinner has his own issues.
I don’t disagree, you can’t replicate the real big 3, but we can have a mini version of the big 3 if they manage to separate themselves from the rest of the pack, once Nole and Rafa are gone.
I believe that what Nole meant in his interview day ago.