The 2020 tennis season is quickly approaching, which means it is time to make predictions for the year’s four Grand Slams. Will the Big 3 continue to dominate, or is a changing of the guard in store?
Australian Open – Rafael Nadal. Outside of the French Open, the Aussie should be Nadal’s best Grand Slam. It’s actually his worst. He has won it only once (2009) and his winning percentage of 82 percent is tied with Wimbledon for his lowest of the four majors. But there is no reason why Nadal cannot complete the double-career Grand Slam. This event comes on the heels of the offseason (albeit a short one), meaning Nadal should be healthy. Moreover, the world No. 1 finally ended in season in outstanding form–going 2-1 at the Nitto ATP Finals and then leading Spain to the Davis Cup title. All signs point to major success Down Under for the 2019 runner-up.
Runner-up (if on opposite side) – Alexander Zverev
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French Open – Rafael Nadal. Well, there’s not much to say about this. The only question is how many more of these will Nadal win. One is probably the smart answer, and even two or three is not out of the question. Dominic Thiem is knocking on the door, but he has not come close in either of his two final appearances. Although both Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka have lifted the trophy within the past five years, Nadal was a shadow of his real self in 2015 and he withdrew prior to the third round in 2016. Unless the Spaniard gets hit with the injury bug, which basically never happens on clay, he should once again roll at Roland Garros.
Runner-up (if on opposite side) – Dominic Thiem
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Wimbledon – Roger Federer. Does Federer have one more left in him? Ummm…. Weren’t we asking this same question back in 2014? Well, the Swiss has won three since then (two Australians and one Wimbledon). Sure, being 38 years old is different from early to mid-30s; but even at 37 he came within one point–twice–of lifting the Wimbledon trophy for the ninth time in his career. It is true that Federer will be inconsistent given his age, as we saw at the Nitto ATP Finals (destroyed Djokovic, lost to both Thiem and Stefanos Tsitsipas). But he doesn’t exactly have to be consistent in order to win Wimbledon. He can sleepwalk through three or four matches before finding his ‘A’ game toward the end of the fortnight. On grass, Federer can still get it done.
Runner-up (if on opposite side) – Stefanos Tsitsipas
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U.S. Open – Novak Djokovic. Djokovic was the best player in the world through three slams in 2019, winning the Aussie Open and Wimbledon while reaching the semis at Roland Garros. The second-ranked Serb wore out down the stretch, perhaps both mentally and physically. If he goes into the 2020 U.S. Open with no slam titles for the season, motivation won’t be an issue. In 2018, Djokovic failed to win the Aussie (and the French, of course) and then triumphed back-to-back at Wimbledon and the U.S. If he starts slow in 2020, which is possible given his arm/shoulder problems toward the end of this past season, Djokovic will likely come on strong in the second half. A fourth title in New York would not be surprising.
Runner-up (if on opposite side) – Denis Shapovalov
The Big 3 splitting the four Grand Slams with four different runner-ups from the younger generation? Who wouldn’t sign up for that? Sooner or later, the torch will be passed. The 2019 Nitto ATP Finals set the stage for that passing and I think the entire 2020 season will do the same…without quite passing it altogether. Zverev concluded this past year in fine form and the offseason exhibition tour with Federer should only inspire him to make a fast start in 2020. Thiem is a no-brainer choice for the French Open final if he can once again avoid Nadal in his half of the draw. Tsitsipas, whose game can work on all surfaces, is due for his first slam final. Shapovalov is coming–and coming fast–and by the time the U.S. Open rolls around I expect him to be in the top 10 and ready for a real breakthrough.
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who ya got?!?!?!?
Ricky, your predictions are interesting for sure. But aren’t they a bit conservative? Do you really think that once again all four slams will go to the three members of the most elitist club in tennis history: the GOAT Club, which has just three members?
I think that the only slam win which is quite predictable, is RG. If Rafa is healthy, he will probably defend his crown.
While all your predictions are definitely very possible, I have a hunch that one of the younger guns will have a big break-through in the upcoming seaon. And the two hardcourt tournaments are the most likely locations where it may happen.
AO – Nadal
FO – Thiem
Wimbledon – Tsitsipas
USO – Nadal
Murray must be getting his favorite runner up trophy in USO may be..
Should the AO be Rafa’s best slam? Maybe historically, as it really was quite slow post-early 2000s – much to the frustration of Lleyton Hewitt. But I tend to think that these days the US is his best chance.
My picks:
AO: Djokovic/Tsitsipas
FO: Rafa/Thiem
WI: Djokovic/Fed
US: Medvedev/Djokovic
Hope I’m wrong and Fed wins a slam, but I think Novak has another couple in him. Not sure the young guns are that good on grass yet, so he still has some chance.
On clay Rafa/Thiem might become the new Rafa/Roger at RG, but I do give Thiem a fair chance. He wasn’t *that* far off last year, just lacked a little bit of guile.
So you think Djoko is good enough to have a chance to win three slams in 2020 whilst Rafa only one? Rafa ended the 2019 season on a high, can’t say that for Fed and Djoko, don’t understand why he’s still only good for the FO when he’s physically fit and healthy.
I’ve outlined my estimations on a prior thread in a bit more detail. In summary, Rafa is in contention for all four slams – he has a ‘realistic shot’ at winning any of them (unlike say Fed, who I think only has a realistic chance at Wimbledon and *maybe* the AO).
The funny thing with Djokovic is that I’d only rate him a ‘realistic chance’ at three of the slams, as I honestly believe both Thiem and Rafa are clearly better than him on clay at this point in time. He’s probably still the #3 favourite on clay, but I think a gap has opened up.
However, yes, if I were giving out odds, I would still have Djokovic as a *slight* favourite over Rafa at all three non-clay slams. His recent record off-clay vs Rafa is part of this, as is the fact that he didn’t have the most impressive overall year in 2019 and yet still won two slams. I definitely considered having Rafa in the USO final. In my opinion there’s not much between separating Nadal/Djoko/Medvedev on that surface. It’s also quite a hard slam to predict because: (1) it’s the furtherest away; and (2) by that point in the season injuries (unpredictable) have often taken a toll. Novak may not even be fit (hello 2019), in which case Rafa could match up reasonably well and beat Medvedev.
So yeah, there is not much splitting the division of slams. It’s quite plausible that Rafa and Djokovic could each win two, for sure. I do feel that ONE of Tsitsipas, Medvedev or Thiem will probably break through (at the AO, US or FO, respectively). In the end I went with Medvedev, mainly because, like I said, injuries may just open the door enough for him against the old guard.
The thing is, Djoko seems more vulnerable vs the young guns or player like Stan even though he may be > Fedal at the slams (except FO vs Rafa) – 2019 FO lost to Thiem (and 2017 too), 2019 USO lost to Stan. So, Rafa for example may not even need to beat Djoko at the slams to win his, whilst Djoko most likely has to beat Rafa or Fed to win his.
I would say the only slam that Rafa is more vulnerable is Wimbledon; look at his results these past three years, except for AO and USO 2018 when he had to retire because of injuries, he had reached finals at AO 2017,2019; won all three FOs from 2017-2019, won USO in 2017, 2019. It took an inspired Fed to beat Rafa in a close match at AO2017, and for Djoko and Fed to play very well to beat Rafa at Wimbledon in the last two years.
Actually, there was suspected gamesmanship in the match by Nadal. He left the court after Thiem had levelled the match , only to have his momentum interrupted and he was never the same after that. I look forward to a rematch next year.
Rafa always takes at least one end of set break and does a full kit change.
The timing of this one was a bit suspect.It wasn’t like the US where they would be drenched in sweat.
Actuaslly, Ive just been watching the 2008 Hamburg final and the issues were that the roof was open for the first time that week , suiting Rafa better. who also took an injury break which changed the whole momentum of the match. Fed leading 5-1 set point but lost it.Then he came back to win the second.Great match, revenge for a year earlier for Rafa .
Anyway, getting way off topic, but worth pointing out that on Tennistv now, all the classic (non-Slam) matches are available between the Big 3,even going back to the Sampras-Agassi era. eg Miami 2004, IW 2001.
Nice to speculate, but I’ll wait and see. Don’t know who will be injured or who will make a run or who will come out of the woodwork. But it’s why I watch!
Stan nowhere here even as runner-up??
certainly not
Tsitsi and Nadal at the AO
Nadal and Thiem at RG
Djoko and Fed at Wimby
Medvedev and Djoko at the US
No crystal ball here,just standard 20 20 vision I’m not looking past the AO
Ricky’s pick was quite outrageous, esp the finalists. Please, Sasha for AO final? Tsitsipas Wimbledon finalist? Also to leave out Djoko at AO and Rafa at USO???
My pick – AO Rafa vs Djoko; FO Rafa vs Tsitsipas or Thiem if they are at the other half of the draw; Wimbledon – Fed or Rafa vs Djoko; USO Rafa vs Djoko or Medvedev.
So I guess you think there still won’t be any new slam winners in 2020?
I think there’s a reasonable chance you’re right (e.g. 2 slams each for Djoko and Rafa) but I predict one of Tsitsipas, Medvedev or Thiem will make the breakthrough.
If there’s a breakthrough at the slams, I think it’ll be Tsitsipas at AO. He looks like he’s playing well at the Abu Dhabi exho, beating Rublev quite comfortably, continuing with his good form. He will play against Djoko next. I like Tsitsipas and his game, he looks the most well balanced in every aspect of his game, just hope that he stays focused on his game and talks less!
Medvedev looks like he’s well rested already, winning a six men exho quite comfortably too and won a million in prize money (beating Foggy in the final). I disagree about players figuring out Medvedev’s game, so what if they figure it out? Could they beat him that’s another issue, because he’s like Djoko – plays like Djoko, fights like Djoko, fit like Djoko, so he’s hard to put away! I feel Medvedev’s best chances is on the slower HCs so the USO is his best chances.
I think Shapo, if he finally finds the right balance in his game, ie aggressive but not overly aggressive, he’ll be a very tough opponent on grass so I think his best chance is at Wimbledon. Rafa spoke very highly about Shapo after playing him at DC final, saying Shapo has something special and it’s either you have it or you don’t; (it’s not something you acquire but rather born with it, I think that’s what Rafa meant).
Thiem is already a strong contender on clay but he’s also gaining ground on the HCs – won IW, Beijing, Vienna and reached final at WTF. He seemed to ran out of steam after the clay season though and that affects his results at Wimbledon and USO.
I’m not sure about Sasha at a slam, he seems only good to great at BO3 events. To me if his game is clicking, he’s like a Delpo, plays with awesome power and depth and so it’s hard to defend against him.
I agree with Tsitsipas in the AO, I think that surface suits him quite well and I don’t think he minds the challenge of Federer or Djokovic. Rafa may remain a problem for him because of the heavy, high bounce on the SHBH.
Agree on Medvedev too. He has a good tank, is mentally tough, and seems to be very comfortable with long rallies on slower hard courts.
I would be quite surprised if Zverev even made a final. Besides his poor mental game, he is just too passive from the back of the court, his FH isn’t even close to the level of Tsitsipas right now.
When Tsitsipas meets Djoko, he’s drawn into a baseline war, I don’t understand why he and most players keep making the mistake of staying at the baseline against Djoko. He should take more risk, S&V a bit more to have a chance to move forward to the net; not willing to take risk, you’re not going to beat Djoko.
Tsitsipas is losing the first set to Djoko at Abu Dhabi, can he turn things around? If not then I think he may not be ready to win a BO5 match against Djoko at the AO.
Yes, it was a baseline war but Tsitsipas managed to get the win in 3 sets having lost the first set.
36 76 64
Good for Tsitsipas that he finally won the match, but he was leading 5-1 in set two and yet had to play a TB to win it.
The problem with Tsitsipas is always the same, ie he tends to spend extra energy unnecessarily during his matches, when he’s leading in a set, he tends to relax a bit and then almost let the set slips away. It’s typical of him, and sometimes he could lose a match from a winning position.
Djoko did play well esp in set one, and did fight hard in set three when he’s trailing. Hopefully Tsitsipas can continue with his good form into 2020.
I agree about Tsitsi and Med.Med wasnt just about his summer hot spell.He did well at the AO last year,for example.Tsitsi also,I’d pick him as most likely to breakthrough next AO.
AO is Nadal’s unluckiest Grand Slam.
Usually he ended up the season with damaged knees, which cut short his preparation (if not coming off an even bigger injury).
When he played really well, he either got injured or Djokovic played even better.
I agree, Nadal never looked better before AO and considering Djokovic’s woes he should be the favorite this January.
Let’s see if bad luck strikes again.
Unfortunately in Rafa’s case the question is “when” not “if” he will get injured. It’s true that he will likely pick up something on hard then recover sufficiently until RG starts – so he should win it again this year.
If healthy, I don’t see who could stop Nadal before Wimbledon SFs. At this point he could as well ‘sleepwalk’ 4 of the first 5 matches. If Djokovic and Federer meet before the final, it’s even simpler. Rafa can definitely win Wimbledon as well.
However, considering that we also have the Olympics this year, it’s quite unlikely that Nadal will be fully fit at USO.
I think that Grand Slams are pretty much between Rafa and Novak next year again, although Federer may still have his say and the younger guns may produce a surprise every now and then.
As usually it will most likely boil down to Nadal’s and Djokovic’s health: who gets injured and when. The Spaniard seems in much better shape now, but things can change drastically during the year.
I think that Nadal or Djokovic are moderate favorites at AO and USO, but those are the slams most likely for a breakthrough. I would rate the breakthrough odds as Thiem – Medvedev – Tsistsipas – Zverev for those slams.
At Roland Garros I think Nadal is heavy favorite and will beat Thiem in final. Djoker, Zverev, Tsitsipas could all have a shot if the draw is friendly to them.
At Wimbledon I think Djokovic is heavy favorite followed by Fedal. This is the slam least likely for a breakthrough, because it seems like the young guys are much more proficient on HC and clay than grass.
Med ,Thiem and Tsitsi are threatening a Slam win,Zverev less so.
Clay and grass are easier to narrow down the potential winners on than hard.
Apart from that,its difficult but looks likely to be a very exciting year .
a lot of people have Med winning the entire Aussie Open. that is far less likely than Zverev reaching the final.
Obviously,but Med is still a better player than Zverev now.He’s more likely to beat the Big Three .
Yes. Strange Ricky has picked Zverev, Thiem, Tsitsi and Shaps but not Med.😕
Med overworked, and people will figure out his game.
I agree with Ricky that people will figure out Med’s game. I think he overplayed in the latter part of this year. It seemed to catch up with him in London.
I am not at all sure that Med will be in contention for slams in 2020.
Very confident about his health next year. He’ll certainly be fit enough to win RG no matter how badly injured he might be everywhere else
Lol only problem is his game isn’t really exploitable because he doesn’t rely on particular formula, he’s just good all round.
Good luck woththat theory.
I think Medvedev is a good chance at winning a slam, same with Tsitsipas.
Surprised by these picks. Why no Nole at the AO? And Zverev has never done anything in a slam. Dunno why no Nole mentioned at wimby either, he has way more chance of getting to the final than Tsitsi. And why no mention of Rafa at the USO when he and Nole have had a virtual lock on it the last decade? Shaps isn’t getting to the final unless the entire draw gets flu.
very unlikely Nadal is healthy for four consecutive US Opens
Well I am concerned about his playing in the Olympics shortly after wimby. Lots of strain on the knee..
Still surprised you don’t have Nole getting to the final in more slams..
Nole is still the man to beat
Definitely!
Are you counting 2018 as a “healthy” USO for Nadal? He did make it to the semi before pulling out with a knee injury.
he went into healthy, yes.
He was healthy for four consecutive Slams this year,that was unlikely
I’ll bet that he’ll be healthy for the four slams next year too. He played only 65 matches in 2019 and finished the year healthy despite some niggles here and there, and despite his knee injury during March.
If he is going to play at IW and Miami, then skipping Acapulco may be ideal; and after playing Olympics skipping Canada and plays at Cincy, ie giving himself two weeks rest in between may also be a good option, imo.
After the USO, who knows, he may skip LC and the Asian swing and then plays the indoor swing plus DC; building in breaks and rest in between tournaments may help him to stay healthy throughout a season. He playing a more offensive game with shorter points and less grinding will help his cause too.
Luckystar AT 1:51 PM,
Rafa has cofirmed his participation in the 2020 Acapulco tournament:
https://twitter.com/AbiertoTelcel/status/1191385162057211909
cofirmed –> confirmed
You’re very confident about his health next year.But Ill say he will certainly be fit enough to win RG no matter how badly injured he might be everywhere else.
Wow…a lot to think about…..I like Thiem at RG, and Joker in Melbourne….don’t know about the rest.
Rafa will plan his schedule to concentrate on winning at the slams, Olympics and DC, so won’t be surprised he may skip Acapulco and some masters, like what he did in 2019; he may stick with playing just six Masters in 2020.
I think Rafa will plan to play Acapulco and IW and skip Miami if he does well at IW. Suspect he prefers a longer time resting and prepping for clay than he used to. I *wish* he’d skip Barcelona if he’s going to insist on playing all three clay Masters but I doubt that’ll happen. I think Rafa will play Rogers Cup again, maybe Cincy if he loses early at Rogers. Suspect Rafa will play Laver Cup again – he has a great time there. Rafa probably should skip the Olympics – he’s got a gold in doubles and singles – doesn’t really need more – but if reasonably healthy he WILL go there, carry the flag and try to win more medals for his country.
Ramara AT 8:34 PM,
Rafa has confirmed his participation in the 2020 Barcelona Open:
https://twitter.com/bcnopenbs/status/1202187337029095425
Ramara AT 8:34 PM,
According to Rafa’s coach Francis Roig, Rafa wants to play at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics.
https://juanmamunoz.com/francis-roig-nadal-favorito-federer/
Interesting interview, thanks.
I think his 2019 schedule looked fine, and I think it will be manageable in 2020 playing the same schedule plus the Olympics if he stays injury free. So, he will be playing 16 events including the Olympics and DC, one more than in 2019 (not counting LC as it’s an exho and at most he plays two matches).
Rafa plays well for his first match in Abu Dhabi, a master class almost. He’s a bit rusty at the beginning but ends up playing very well, continuing from where he stops at the DC. I’m very happy seeing him playing so well on the HCs.
https://twitter.com/puepppy/status/1208109739130814465?s=20
What about a who will win all the Masters 1000 titles thread? More interesting at this point.
Wrong thread .I meant more interesting than the Nitto finals.Obviously.
Ricky, yes, Rafa has so far only won events consecutively on clay (Toronto-Montreal is the lone exception since this year he defended last year’s title). And he also has never finished as year-end No.1 consecutively either. When he had a stellar year, it was always followed by a (small or not-so-small) let-down, mostly because of injuries. That’s what I’m worried about as a fan – especially since he definitely wasn’t injury free in 2019, although he seems to have managed the injuries well. But at his age the potential for injuries increases.
We will see if Rafa can break this pattern of a great year followed by a less great year. But he certainly finished the year on a high note which often hasn’t been the case. We will see if this good form can be preserved and extended until the AO.
I have a very hard time to come up with any sound predictions for 2020. But I do not believe that the Big Three will gobble up again all slam trophies. I feel that this is highly unlikely. However, I have a hard time to pin down where the inevitable break-through of the youngsters will eventually take place. The FO and Wimby are probably the least likely events where it will happen. The FO are not very likely because I believe that Rafa will rule again – unless he is injured. And the younger generation haven’t found their mojo on grass, yet. That leaves the AO and the USO as the most likely places where someone else may be able to make his mark.