2017 Wimbledon draw analysis

Roger Federer is the oddsmakers’ choice to win Wimbledon, but it is not because of any favorable draw. Rather, Federer is already a seven-time champion at the All-England Club and he is 24-2 this season with a quartet of titles that include the Australian Open, Indian Wells, and Miami. But Federer may have to face either Grigor Dimitrov or John Isner in the fourth round before a potential quarterfinal date with Milos Raonic.

The 35-year-old is on a collision course for the semis with Novak Djokovic, who could run into Juan Martin Del Potro in round three. Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray, meanwhile, headline the top half of the bracket.

Murray’s quarter

There is one lucky loser in the main draw right now, and Murray is playing him. But a matchup against Alexander Bublik is just about where the good news ends for the world No. 1. Dustin Brown looms as an intriguing second-round opponent, while Murray could also meet Nick Kyrgios in the last 16 and either Stan Wawrinka or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarterfinals. That’s a tough road even at 100 percent—which is a physical status from which the top seed appears to be falling short.

A motley crew of characters can be found in this quarter, led by the crowd favorite Murray, Kyrgios, Tsonga, Brown, Fabio Fognini, Benoit Paire, Jerzy Janowicz, and the soon-to-be-retired Tommy Haas. Sam Querrey, the man who conquered Djokovic last year in London, is closer to Tsonga in the draw this time around. Kyrgios vs. Paire is a possible second-rounder and what could be the final tournament of Haas’ career may see him spar with Wawrinka in round two.

Best first-round matchup — (31) Fernando Verdasco vs. Kevin Anderson

Verdasco is no stranger to marquee first-round showdowns at slams. So far this season he has drawn Djokovic (Australian Open), Alexander Zverev (French Open), and now one of the most dangerous unseeded floaters in the Wimbledon draw in Anderson. The Spaniard was also dealt 2016 openers against Nadal (Aussie), competent grass-court player Bernard Tomic at Wimbledon, and eventual champion Wawrinka the U.S. Open. Verdasco leads this head-to-head series 3-2, but Anderson took their only previous grass-court encounter last summer in Nottingham.

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Best potential second-round matchup – (5) Stan Wawrinka vs. Tommy Haas
Best potential third-round matchup – (12) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. (24) Sam Querrey

Possible surprises – If any section of the bracket goes haywire, it will likely be this one. Murray may be injured, Tsonga has been unable to stay healthy, Kyrgios the same, and Wawrinka is better on clay and hard courts. Lucas Pouille made a quarterfinal run last summer and has a friendly draw through two rounds; by that point who knows what kind of shape Kyrgios and Murray will be in? On the other side of this quarter, the Verdasco-Anderson winner could go deep.

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Nadal’s quarter

On paper at least, Nadal’s section is not a tough one. There are three potential opponents who could trouble the two-time champion, and he can only run into two of them at most—and none prior to the fourth round. That list includes ‘s-Hertogenbosch winner Gilles Muller, ‘s-Hertogenbosch runner-up Ivo Karlovic, and 2014 U.S. Open champion Marin Cilic. Muller and Karlovic will likely go head-to-head again in the third round, with the winner possibly to battle Nadal on the second Monday. Cilic, who lost a heartbreaker in the Queen’s Club final to Feliciano Lopez, should not have too much trouble making a return trip to the Wimbledon quarters.

There is simply not much else to speak of in this section. An in-form Karen Khachanov is Nadal’s probable third-round adversary, but Khachanov is unproven on grass and likely prefers a slower, higher-bouncing surface that gives him time to set up his forehand and hit it in his strike zone. Kei Nishikori, in line to meet Cilic in the fourth round, saw his injury woes continue when he retired against Khachanov two weeks ago in Halle because of a hip issue.

Best first-round matchup — (7) Marin Cilic vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber

Cilic is a massive favorite based on current form, with a title in Istanbul, Masters 1000 quarterfinals in Monte-Carlo and Rome, a quarterfinal run at the French Open, a semifinal showing in ‘s-Hertogenbosch, and a runner-up performance at Queen’s Club. Both of his grass-court losses have come in final-set tiebreakers (to Karlovic and Lopez). But there is some hope for Kohlschreiber, who has slumped to 57^th in the rankings. His return of serve is outstanding (just ask Isner) and he is an impressive 6-3 lifetime against Cilic.

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Best potential second-round matchup – (9) Kei Nishikori vs. (Q) Sergiy Stakhovsky
Best potential third-round matchup – (16) Gilles Muller vs. (21) Ivo Karlovic

Possible surprises — At 34 years old, Muller is playing the best tennis of his life. The left-handed Luxembourgian has captured his first two ATP titles this season (including one on grass) and is up to a career-high ranking of No. 26 in the world. Nadal, who did not play an official match on grass in between the French Open and Wimbledon, would have his hands full with either Muller or Karlovic on manic Monday. On the other side of this quarter, the Sergiy Stakhovsky vs. Julien Benneteau first-round winner has to like his chances on grass against an ailing Nishikori.

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Federer’s quarter

It really should not matter against whom Federer plays throughout this fortnight; he will be a considerable head-to-head favorite against anyone with the misfortune of facing him. That being said, the Swiss may have to dodge bullets Keanu Reeves Matrix style as he dances his way through the draw. Opening opponent Alexandr Dolgopolov is one of the most talented unseeded players in the field, possible third-round foes Tomic and Mischa Zverev are adept on grass, either Dimitrov or Isner would present some second-week danger, and Raonic toppled Federer at the All-England Club last summer.

But this, of course, is a much different Federer. Although the 18-time Grand Slam champ lost his 2017 grass-court debut to Haas after skipping the entire clay-court season, he erased any concerns by capturing the Halle title—complete with a straight-set demolition of Alexander Zverev in the championship match. No one else in this quarter (not Raonic, not Dimitrov, not Isner, and neither Zverev brother) is in the kind of form that suggests an upset of Federer is in their future.

Best first-round matchup — (23) John Isner vs. (Q) Taylor Fritz

Aside from a third-round performance at the Indian Wells Masters, Fritz has mostly disappeared from the main tour this season following his breakout 2016 campaign. Welcoming a son to his family in January almost certainly contributed to the 19-year-old’s decision to cut back on his schedule and skip the entire clay-court swing. He has finally resurfaced, qualifying for the Wimbledon main draw with victories over Marco Chiudinelli, Alejandro Gonzalez, and Vincent Millot. Isner’s serve does not work as well on grass due to the lack of bounce and he struggles in the return department to an even greater extent than he does on other surfaces. Thus Fritz has a real chance in this all-American battle.

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Best potential second-round matchup – (13) Grigor Dimitrov vs. Marcos Baghdatis
Best potential third-round matchup – (10) Alexander Zverev vs. (17) Jack Sock

Possible surprises — Nicolas Mahut is quite simply a grass-court legend. All four of his titles have come on the surface (three in ‘s-Hertogenbosch) and he played one of the most famous matches in tennis history at Wimbledon seven years ago against Isner, for which there is a plaque on the wall surrounding Court 18 (a plaque that actually disappeared this weekend; the club says it is being “refurbished” but speculation is that it was stolen). Mahut also reached the fourth round last year before losing to Querrey. If the Frenchman can upset Raonic, who is coming off a dreadful Queen’s Club setback against Thanasi Kokkinakis, a quarterfinal appearance is not out of the question.

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Djokovic’s quarter

A recent title winner in Eastbourne, Djokovic seemingly has two roadblocks standing in his way of the Wimbledon semifinals. A big one—literally—will likely come in round three, just as it did in 2016 when Querrey sent the then-world No. 1 and tournament favorite packing. This time it would be Del Potro, who should coast through two matches against Kokkinakis and then either veteran clay-courter Victor Estrella Burgos or disappearing act Ernests Gulbis. If Djokovic gets past Del Potro, the test two days later could come in the form of Lopez. The 35-year-old’s Queen’s Club triumph marked the third grass-court title of his career and he is an outstanding 32-15 lifetime at Wimbledon with three quarterfinal appearances.

Djokovic once again finds himself in the same quarter of a slam draw as Thiem, but the scenario is a much different one from what the French Open offered. Another Thiem over Djokovic upset is simply not happening on grass, and it would be shocking if the Austrian even makes it to the quarters. Instead, Djokovic should anticipate a quarterfinal contest against either Tomas Berdych, Richard Gasquet, or Vasek Pospisil.

Best first-round matchup — (8) Dominic Thiem vs. Vasek Pospisil

Thiem is dangerously close to deserving “clay-court specialist” status (of course, there is certainly nothing wrong with being a two-time French Open semifinalist at 23 years old). Six of his eight titles have come on the slow stuff. The eighth seed actually has one grass-court triumph to his credit (Stuttgart last summer), but he lost in the Wimbledon second round to Jiri Vesely and is a disappointing 1-2 on grass this season with setbacks at the hands of Robin Haase and Ramkumar Ramanathan. Pospisil, on the other hand, thrives on grass and reached the quarterfinals in SW19 two years ago. The resurgent Canadian is back up to 75th in the world thanks to decent Challenger success and a whole host of ATP-level qualifications. His only previous date with Thiem was a third-set tiebreaker loss (Munich 2015)—and that was on clay. Sound the upset alert.

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Best potential second-round matchup – (15) Gael Monfils vs. Kyle Edmund
Best potential third-round matchup – (2) Novak Djokovic vs. (29) Juan Martin Del Potro

Possible surprises — Pospisil beating Thiem would be no surprise of any kind. Pospisil in the quarterfinals (again) would be a much different story. But it could happen. His draw in rounds two and three opens up considerably if he takes down Thiem, and even Berdych or Gaquet would be far from invincible as second-week opponents. With Djokovic still a question mark at best despite his Eastbourne success, a Pospisil vs. Del Potro or Pospisil vs. Lopez quarterfinal is very much in play.

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