2014 French Open draw analysis

May 23, 2014 Ricky Tournament previews 66

Last year, Rafael Nadal was left at the mercy of the French Open draw as the No. 3 seed. Or, more accurately, the draw was at the mercy of Nadal and Novak Djokovic. They did, in fact, land on the same side and–as expected–their titanic semifinal showdown proved to be the real title match just a few days too early.

This year, there is no such skewing of the bracket. Nadal and Djokovic are in opposite halves as the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, respectively, and even beyond that it is a balanced draw. Nadal has 2013 runner-up David Ferrer in his section, Djokovic’s quarter is loaded with talent in the form of Milos Raonic and Kei Nishikori, Stanislas Wawrinka is with Andy Murray, and Roger Federer could see Tomas Berdych, John Isner, and/or Ernests Gulbis prior to the semifinals.

Nadal’s quarter

Two of the three players to whom Nadal has lost on clay this season join him in the top quarter of the draw. Ferrer took down his heavily-favored countryman in Monte-Carlo, while another Spaniard–Nicolas Almagro–pulled off the upset in Barcelona. Nadal could face Almagro in the Roland Garros fourth round and Ferrer in the quarterfinals.

What the top seed will like about his path is a routine first-rounder against American wild card Robby Ginepri and that his nearest seed is an ice-cold Vasek Pospisil. A second-round date with Dominic Thiem will provide the 20-year-old Austrian with a big stage for a potential coming out party, but Nadal will be able to withstand the flashes of brilliance. The in-form and super-talented Grigor Dimitrov could usurp Ferrer as Nadal’s quarterfinal adversary, but we saw the different between Dimitrov vs. Nadal on hard courts (Australian Open) and Dimitrov vs. Nadal on clay (Rome). Hint: bad news for the Bulgarian.

Best first-round matchup — (32) Andreas Seppi vs. Santiago Giraldo

Talk about ironic. Giraldo was one spot away from being seeded at Roland Garros. It turns out not to have mattered at all, as he is going up against the man who snagged the 32nd and final seed by 32 ranking points. Interestingly, Seppi and Giraldo have never faced each other. This should be an ideal setting for their first-ever meeting, with Giraldo in great form at the moment and Seppi an accomplished competitor in Grand Slams. Additionally, both players are solid on clay.

Best potential second-round matchup – (1) Rafael Nadal vs. Dominic Thiem
Best potential third-round matchup – (16) Tommy Haas vs. (21) Nicolas Almagro

Possible surprises – Nadal vs. Thiem obviously won’t be the most competitive match of the second round, but–if it happens–should be wildly entertaining. Anyone who has not yet caught a glimpse of Thiem this season could be surprised, and he actually has the kind of game (similar to that of his good friend Gulbis) that can trouble the world No. 1. Meanwhile, an Almagro vs. Tommy Haas third-round showdown would be enticing but is far from a lock. Both veterans are question marks right now, so don’t be shocked if someone like Federico Delbonis or Steve Johnson steals the spot in the round of 16.

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Wawrinka’s quarter

Will Wawrinka channel his inner California Chrome and win the first two legs of the whole shebang (in Wawrinka’s case, of course, he would need four compared to Chrome’s three)? The chances are obviously not good. His shot at another Grand Slam semifinal, however, is by no means a long one. The section section is loaded with talent, but also riddled with even more question marks. The jury is still out on Murray on clay, Frenchmen Richard Gasquet and Gael Monfils do not appear to be 100 percent, and Fabio Fognini has cooled off.

As long as Wawrinka gets through an opener with Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, who is skilled on clay and prone to the random upset from out of left field, the Swiss should be home free to the second week. Things could get tricky at that point if either Monfils or Fognini has woken up prior to the fourth round. Meanwhile, an interesting four-man section features Gasquet, Bernard Tomic, Lleyton Hewitt, and Carlos Berlocq. If Gasquet’s back is still an issue, the door will be open.

Best first-round matchup — (24) Fernando Verdasco vs. (WC) Michael Llodra

This could end up being a rout, but it also has some potential if Llodra comes to play. The 34-year-old Frenchman is mostly focusing on doubles right now. On the singles circuit, he has won just a single match since Marseille back in February (and that came against a hopeless Jerzy Janowicz in Monte-Carlo). On the bright side, Llodra is a respectable 2-3 lifetime against Verdasco and even though clay is far from his best surface, he has been to the fourth round of Roland Garros on two different occasions.

Best potential second-round matchup – (12) Richard Gasquet vs. Lleyton Hewitt
Best potential third-round matchup – (14) Fabio Fognini vs. (23) Gael Monfils

Possible surprises — Monfils and Fognini are the two biggest figurative wild cards in the entire draw and they just so happen to have landed as close as seeds can get to each other–on course for a third-round encounter. Monfils is once again struggling with physical problems and Fognini’s flames have been doused since a fast start to 2014. None of the unseeded floaters in their 16th of the bracket are particularly dangerous, so if Monfils or Fognini somehow stumble in the first week, there will be a serious underdog in the last 16. In the Murray-Wawrinka quarter, however, both the Frenchman and the Italian have semifinal potential…if they are right physically and mentally.

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Federer’s quarter

In general, Federer heats up as majors progress toward the latter stages. He will be well-served over the next fortnight if that trend continues. The 2009 French Open champion should be able to sleepwalk through his first three matches, but that’s when it could get difficult. Gulbis, a current Nice finalist and possible fourth-round adversary for Federer, is playing the most consistent tennis of his career. Potential quarterfinal opponents include Berdych and Isner. Berdych often gives the Swiss problems and who wants to play Isner?

Watch out, though, for Roberto Bautista Agut. One of 2014’s breakout players has a dream draw through two rounds and will likely face Berdych in the last 32. They squared off earlier this spring on the Czech’s preferred hard-court surface in Indian Wells and Bautista Agut won in three sets. Gulbis, too, cannot overlook the early rounds. He is historically poor at slams and he recently blew a match point in a Miami loss to likely second-round opponent Julien Benneteau.

Best first-round matchup — (15) Mikhail Youzhny vs. Pablo Carreno Busta

Carreno Busta, a dominant force on the Challenger circuit in 2013, has struggled to make the transition to the ATP level. The 22-year-old Spaniard, however, at least managed to reach the Casablanca quarterfinals and the third round of Monte-Carlo as a qualifier earlier this spring. Will his clay-court prowess help make this one interesting, or will Youzhny have way too much Grand Slam experience? Youzhny has also been inconsistent at best this season, but he should take heart from having pushed Nadal to three sets last week in Rome.

Best potential second-round matchup – (17) Tommy Robredo vs. Albert Montanes
Best potential third-round matchup – (6) Tomas Berdych vs. (27) Roberto Bautista Agut

Possible surprises — The Wawrinka and Federer quarters were always going to be the most wide open of the four. Friday’s draw ceremony only exacerbated that fact. While talents like Monfils and Fognini are with Wawrinka, Gulbis and Isner loom large near Federer. Berdych is also vulnerable on clay, making the top two seeds in this section less than scary (at least less than, say, Federer in his prime). Gulbis and Isner generally underwhelm at slams, but if their serves are working, one of the two could reach a first-ever major semifinal. Also watch out for Bautista Agut against Berdych in the third round. If RBA beats him (again), there is no telling how far the Spaniard could go.

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Djokovic’s quarter

No part of the draw is more intriguing than the top half of Djokovic’s quarter. Who will earn the right to play–and lose–to the Serb in the last eight? Who knows. Contenders include Raonic, Nishikori, and Alexandr Dolgopolov. Raonic extended Djokovic to three sets in Rome, Nishikori is the hottest player on tour outside of the world No. 2, and Dolgopolov stunned Nadal in Indian Wells. Even Gilles Simon, the other seed in this eighth, showed signs of his 2008 self in a Rome three-setter against Nadal.

As for the other part of the section, anyone who has been following tennis in 2014 will not overreact to a potential fourth-round clash between Djokovic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The Frenchman, a 2013 Roland Garros semifinalist, is woefully out of form. Jeremy Chardy in the second round and Marin Cilic in the third round will make Djokovic work, but neither one is particularly dangerous in a best-of-match on red dirt.

Best first-round matchup — (13) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Edouard Roger-Vasselin

Tsonga is 6-0 lifetime in the head-to-head series between the two Frenchman. But all is not lost for Roger-Vasselin. Three of their four matches since the start of the 2013 season have gone to three sets, including earlier this year in Marseille and on the clay courts of Madrid. Tsonga survived, but he is still slumping down at No. 14 in the world. He is just 17-10 in 2014 and did not win more than two matches in any one of his three preceding clay-court events. Roger-Vasselin has been dealt a ton of tough draws of late, so he has plenty of experience against the best players in the world.

Best potential second-round matchup – (29) Gilles Simon vs. Alejandro Gonzalez
Best potential third-round matchup – (9) Kei Nishikori vs. (20) Alexandr Dolgopolov

Possible surprises — Djokovic will almost certainly take care of business in this section, even though it is not an easy one. What will be most interesting to watch is the battle to face him in the quarterfinals; a battle like to feature Raonic, Nishikori, and Dolgopolov. While those men slug it out, the surprise could come among Djokovic’s potential fourth-round opponents. Tsonga and Janowicz are two of the most vulnerable seeds in the entire field, so their 16th of the bracket is beyond wide open. Look for one of two lefties–either Jarkko Nieminen or Jurgen Melzer–to convert the opportunity and reach the second week.

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66 Comments on 2014 French Open draw analysis

  2. Ricky,

    Thanks for another great draw analysis. I think Rafa has a good draw here. The one that could be interesting is a possible second round meeting with young Thiem. I would like to see how Thiem handles it. He’s not going to be able to hang with Rafa, but it would make for an interesting early round match.

    Just when I think Ferrer won’t get through, he ends up doing just that. But I think that Dimitrov could have a chance. I am not sure that Almagro will get through to meet Rafa. He’s been struggling with a foot injury lately. I think one of the players you mentioned just might get through to face Rafa in the fourth round. The only thing I don’t like about Rafa playing Ferrer, is that it’s always a physical contest.

    I am curious to see if Stan can take advantage of a decent draw. After getting knocked out early in both Madrid and Rome and him talking about a back injury, I am curious to see how he looks. I also want to see if Murray can build on his good result in Rome.

    I do think that things could get interesting with Fed’s part of the draw. Gulbis is playing well now, but never seems to bring it at the slams. Berdy vs. RBA should be a good one. I just don’t know if Berdy can keep it together and get through to the quarterfinals. He hasn’t looked that great recently.

    As for Novak, I do not see Nishi, Dolgo or Raonic being able to beat him. I am curious to see if Fed will get to meet him in the semis this time.

    Reply

  3. Great analysis Ricky. The BIG 4 could just as well have been the top 4 seeds the way the draw has panned out with Nadal and Djoko not likely to meet Murray and Fed until the SF.

    I don’t think any of the Big 4 have a particularly tough draw and I feel that Murray is the most likely semi finalist between him and Stan. The other half of the draw is more open with Fed being my pick to make the final.

    Reply

    • I think, Rafa wouldn’t want to play tomorrow morning. He will be watching (on TV) late tonight Champions League final between Real Madrid and AtlĂ©tico Madrid.

      Reply

  7. chevelle, it’s not wishful thinking, I just think Fed will beat Nole if they meet. Djokovic struggles in best f 5 against the Big 4. That’s the true, no?

    Djokovic can get a quick win in a best of 3 where he can cut and run but when he has to do it over 5 sets he is found wanting.

    Reply

  9. A real shame to see Raonic, Nishikori and Dolgopolov all in the same section. I can’t see many upsets in this draw and I think the top eight will be pretty secure in best of five set matches. Raonic has a tough draw and if Nishikori is back to full fitness, he will probably come through and RBA will be a big test for Berdych if they meet in R3. I’m going for Djokovic over Nadal in the final. I think this is Novak’s year.

    Reply

  11. Sounds ominous…………

    RT @staffsky: “Roger Federer brought all of his four kids to Paris. Not sure yet when or if he will publish pictures of Leo and Lenny”

    Reply

  14. I am kind of disappointed that most of the ESPN experts picked Novak for the win. But not that surprised. This bandwagon thing is contagious. Whoever wins the most recent meeting, gets picked to win. But they are ignoring Rafa’s incomparable record at RG. I don’t see how you pick against the player who has lost only ONE match in all the years he has played there and now has a record eight titles won.

    Reply

    • Hey, Native, dont be disappointed……….u know they have picked Nole for the last three years…….no?! Raf is never the fav for ANY GS until he wins!! Let us just sit back and enjoy the ride. In the video above, you see Rafa look worried? I am so used to those pundits……used to their bs, that is!!

      And by the way, wath out for the upsets! We know theyre coming!

      Vamos, Rafa!!

      Reply

      • Mona,

        Thanks for the encouragement! After all, it’s only predictions, right? Let them all pick Novak. We know better!

        You mentioned watching out for the upsets. Well there is one brewing right now with GGL on the verge of beating Stan! You were right! 🙂

        Reply

  15. https://www.winafy.com/french-open-conditions/

    The Ball:
    Now it’s a slower, heavier ball than the Dunlop Fort, but still with a slightly harder rubber composition. Thus, while it plays slow with spinning defensive shots, it “pops” with big flat shots. More importantly in cooler wet weather it will stay lower, while still popping. Great for the big power hitters and effectively a more offensive hard court type of ball.

    Weather:
    This year is expected to be damp for not only the first week, but well into the second week with one possible hot day the last day of the tournament. If it rains off and on throughout the 2 weeks as predicted, the base may stay damp enough to keep this one of the lowest bouncing French Open’s ever – thanks to the Babolat ball. We will see…

    Surface:
    Contributing to this odd offensive tennis seen in damp weather on a clay court is the possible addition of a grittier crushed brick top dressing in recent years. I’ve been able to compare very close up HD pics of the surface over the last couple of years and the top dressing did seem grittier. A grittier top dressing on a hard base (which Roland Garros has with it’s compacted limestone) will lend to a more slippery fast type of clay court in wet weather. On certain courts which had higher compaction we saw a lot of slippage of both the ball and player. Suzanne Lenglen and Court 2 come to mind first and foremost. My Map of Roland Garros lists all the Courts and the differences in how they played last year. The outer non-TV courts usually play slower. The Bull Ring (Court 1) is usually the fastest. Subtle differences, but sometimes the tipping point. Youzny, for example, had a horrible time on SL last year against Haas as he was overwhelmed by the slippery quick conditions versus Tommy Haas, who then had a great match in the speedy Bull Ring versus John Isner.

    Conclusions
    This could be one of the damper French Opens, but ironically, one of the most offensive due to the ball and type of changes in the surface. Also, the incredible racquet technology doesn’t hurt. Look for an edge for all the big power hitters and possibly those players incorporating Power Spread variety into their games. Changing pace, bounce, tempo, etc could work wonders with a ball that can be very slow, but also pop and play low or high in damp weather on a hard clay court.

    Advantage: Novak

    Reply

  16. Predictions don’t bother me. It’s just a bit of fun. No one has any idea what will happen. It doesn’t surprise me that hardly anyone is picking Rafa because Rafa is not forgiven for having a bad patch. He is not allowed to lose his serve, a set or a match. Anything but a clean sheet means the end for him..

    On the other hand, Djokovic’s bad patches are glossed over. He is allowed. He lost to Stan in AO, but that is never mentioned. Even though he has not won a slam outside AO since 2011, he is the perennial favourite for everything.

    So much could happen in 7 rounds in a best of 5. Rafa has had some strange losses this year which is in the back of my mind, inevitably. I just hope the real Rafa shows up and shut all the doubters up by dominating this FO again.

    Reply

    • Nadline, yeah! Rafa is never the fave for any tourney, esp a GS! That is how they want so much for Novak to win FO just so to stop Rafa from passing Roger’s tallly!! It is a consipracy…….it alwys has, and always will! But it is a good thing that NO ONE can control what goes on the court, except the players themselves!

      Novak has not won a GS in so long, im not even sure if he remembers how to, but yet he is the favourite here…….sheesh!!!!

      Reply

  17. I bet Djokovic is wishing he hadn’t won at Rome after all. He is well and truly in the glare of the spotlight now.

    If ever Nole was favoured to topple Rafa at Roland Garros it was in 2011. He had beaten Rafa in Indian Wells and Miami followed by two consecutive losses on clay in Madrid and Rome. He had progressed to R4 at RG with the loss of only one set (to del Potro) followed by a w/o in the QF only to fall to Federer for only the 2nd time in their H2H on clay.

    In 2012 he was again in a good position to challenge Rafa having already won three consecutive GS. A win at RG would have given him the coveted prize of a true calendar Slam. But the prize was to elude him when he double-faulted on match point. What he didn’t know at the time was Rafa’s knees were so bad he would have to withdraw from the Olympics and did not play on the tour for seven months. Djokovic then failed to defend his Wimbledon title, closely followed by two defeats at the Olympics both in straight sets: lost to Murray in the SF and to Delpo in the bronze medal play-off.

    The loss in 2013, when the majority of tennis experts and many knowledgeable fans believed Nole would finally hoist the RG crown, was another bitter blow. To rub salt in the wound Rafa went on to beat Nole on his favourite surface by also biting the USO trophy.

    All this points to what I see as a fatal flaw which he shares with Federer. i.e. the greater the prize the greater the chance he will fluff his strokes at the crucial moment.

    Reply

      • There’s quite possibly an element of that. It’s not so much what he said but that he came out and said it. There been a history between them going back a long way.

        Reply

      • Fed doesn’t like Novak. I do believe that Fed at least respects Rafa and has a better relationship with him. He and Rafa have been rivals and the two big names in this sport for a while now. Novak keeps wanting to crash the party, but he’s not in their league.

        Reply

      • I see the ‘quote’ from Federer and several accompanying comments have been deleted.

        I should know better than to use an unattributed quote.

        Reply

      • Augusta: There was a post (maybe even by yourself) quoting a comment, purporting to be by Federer, in which he had a dig at Djokovic’s over the wrist/arm injury. That and the follow up are what have disappeared.

        Reply

      • ed251137 (at 8:37 am)
        Look into the treads:
        ¤ 2014 French Open picks: Nadal over Djokovic
        ¤ French Open R1 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Ginepri, Thiem vs. Mathieu

        (I haven’t commented on Fed’s comments)

        Reply

      • What I found interesting in the Fed article was his opinion on RG opening proceedings on Sundays. Fed said when RG started play on Sundays he objected to it because it lengthened RG compared to the other Slams.Fed said when they put him on the schedule on Sunday when they first started this scheduling, he refused, but they made him play anyway.

        So it appears RG has made it so Fed plays on opening day, even if Fed doesn’t like it.

        Reply

  18. Anybody from India – which channel is FO being shown on? I checked Star Sports, Ten Sports – HD & normal..did not see anything today

    Reply

  19. What? Nadal on Suzanne? Are these guys nuts

    Monday Schedule, Court Suzanne Lenglen 11am: #Cibulkova-Razzano, Pavic-#Simon, #Nadal-Ginepri and #Kvitova-Diyas #RG14

    Reply

    • ^^It’s done @Sanju, the hurt has been meted. I just hope Rafa channels any feelings of injustice he must feel towards his game, that this helps him focus more. This is not the first time, no? It’s always one thing or another at RG against Rafa. Everytime he rises above it all………….

      Reply

      • I hope this is the last match on SL..and all his next matches are on PC..maybe get the SL out of the way

        Its not the graveyard court no? Which court in which slam is called the graveyard court?

        Reply

  21. Djokovic gets to play in PC tomm over Rafa? Wawrinka too. On what basis? Has any of them won RG? Are they No 1

    Monday schedule, Court Philippe Chatrier 11 am: #Sharapova-Pervak, #Djokovic-Sousa, #Cornet-Barty and #Wawrinka-Garcia Lopez #RG14

    Reply

  23. You wanted to know where the Graveyard Court is. The answer is it was the old No.2 court at Wimbledon which was notorious for the number of famous players who exited early when they played on it. It has since been renamed No.3 and a new No.2 has been built.

    Reply

  24. ed: “A win at RG would have given him the coveted prize of a true calendar Slam. But the prize was to elude him when he double-faulted on match point.”

    You make it sound as if Djerk had match point. He was serving to stay in the match.

    Reply

    • Augusta@today 8:49am
      Thanks for putting me right. I’m beginning to lose the plot trying to keep track of conversations on several different threads at once. I’m also beyond confused: I thought Ricky originally had Djokovic over Nadal in the RG preview picks and then changed course when the draw came out. On checking back I see this is not so:
      I can only think I was looking at the Rome prediction by mistake.

      #EdHasGoneGaGa

      Reply

  26. This is priceless. Kinda makes me glad I do not have to listen to this Inverdale fellow. Maybe our British posters could confirm if he is indeed as bad as this article makes him out to be:

    “John Inverdale is still the WORST.

    The British tv presenter is back, on ITV4, now alongside the very Wimbledon Champion he insulted last year, and he’s up to his old tricks. Here’s a selection of quotes outlining the dangers of hiring people to present tennis programmes who know nothing about tennis, and don’t bother to do their homework:

    “Kvitova – she’s very much in form at the moment.” – Um, no John, she’s not. There are holes in backboards scattered across Europe.

    “Novak Djokovic will begin his defence of the title tomorrow.” – Yeah, Novak has never won the French Open, John. We’re all kind of talking about that. It’s sort of the major story of this whole damn event this year.”

    http://www.changeovertennis.com/things-learned-day-one-2014-french-open/

    Reply

  27. Inverdale must have been reading an auto cue written by some idiot. Still he should spot the mistake and not just read it out like a parrot. Anyone playing any part in the ITV tennis broadcast should know that there has only been one winner and just one other in the last 10 years at RG and neither of them is Djokovic.

    Reply

  28. Please tell me this ain’t so…………surely RG organization can do better? Rafa and Novak are your 2 best show-ponies (in terms of odds for the title at least), surely you would want to maximize your viewing by making sure their playing times do not clash, unless they are playing each other of course? Just me…….

    RT @jon_wertheim : “Possible that nadal and Djokovic will be playing simultaneously today. One suspects they’ll be playing at the same time in 13 days as well”

    Reply

    • rafaisthebest (at 10:33 am)
      — One suspects they’ll be playing at the same time in 13 days as well—

      I think that they both will play one match on Court Suzanne Lenglen.

      Reply

      • @augusta08, Jon Wertheim was alluding to the possibility of Rafa and Djoker playing at the same time today, Rafa on Lenglen and Djoker on Chatrier, not their court assignments. Thankfully, this has not happened. Looks like Djoker will finish his match before Rafa even starts his.

        Reply

  30. Is putting Djok on the main stage and Rafa on the side stage sending a signal, purposely or somewhat unconsciously, that the organizers believe what many seem to: that THIS it the year Djok will lift the RG cup? If previous such expectations had come to fruition he would be looking at his third or fourth crown here.

    Reply

    • @chloro, I don’t think you need to be a paranoid Rafan to see that so many subliminal messages have been sent at this RG regarding who the pundits, the journos, the RG establishment want to win RG 2014. It’s got to the point where, if Rafa keeps winning, I half expect someone to directly tell him to let others win!

      Fortunately the fans are pretty smart all round, they just want to see good matches.

      Reply

  31. One silver lining in Rafa playing 3rd on the SL saga, ITV will be showing the Robredo/Ward match unless in the unlikely even of Djerk is being taken down by Sousa. I guess B. Euosport will do the same.

    Reply

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