2014 Australian Open picks: Nadal vs. Djokovic in rematch of 2012

First round
Nadal over Tomic in 3, Kokkinakis over Sijsling in 4
Kamke over Sock in 5, Monfils over Harrison in 4
Hewitt over Seppi in 4, Haase over Young in 5
Lajovic over Pouille in 5, Nishikori over Matosevic in 5
Raonic over Gimeno-Traver in 3, Gojowczyk over Hanescu in 4
Lu over Wang in 4, Dimitrov over Klahn in 4
Dancevic over Paire in 4, Kyrgios over Becker in 4
Smyczek over Bautista Agut in 5, Del Potro over Williams in 3

Murray over Soeda in 3, Odesnik over Millot in 5
Llodra over Berrer in 5, Lopez over Devvarman in 4
Kohlschreiber over Bedene in 3, Przysiezny over Zeballos in 4
Rola over Delbonis in 4, Isner over Klizan in 3
Tsonga over Volandri in 3, Bellucci over Reister in 5
Cilic over Granollers in 4, Brands over Simon in 3
Verdasco over Zhang in 3, Stakhovsky over Gabashvili in 4
Stepanek over Kavcic in 4, Federer over Duckworth in 3

Berdych over Nedovyesov in 3, De Schepper over Wu in 5
Dzumhur over Hajek in 5, Karlovic over Dodig in 4
Anderson over Vesely in 4, Sousa over Thiem in 5
Roger-Vasselin over Berlocq in 3, Haas over Garcia-Lopez in 4
Youzhny over Struff in 4, F. Mayer over Kudla in 5
Ramos over Andujar in 5, Janowicz over Thompson in 4
Chardy over Huta Galung in 3, Dolgopolov over Berankis in 5
Johnson over Mannarino in 5, Ferrer over Gonzalez in 3

Wawrinka over Golubev in 3, Falla over Kukushkin in 5
Mahut over Ebden in 4, Pospisil over Groth in 4
Rosol over Robredo in 4, Benneteau over Carreno Busta in 5
Kubot over Davydenko in 4, Gasquet over Guez in 3
Bogomolov over Fognini in 4, Nieminen over Sela in 4
Querrey over Giraldo in 5, Gulbis over Monaco in 4
Tursunov over Russell in 3, Istomin over Baghdatis in 4
L. Mayer over Montanes in 4, Djokovic over Lacko in 3

Second round
Nadal over Kokkinakis in 3
Monfils over Kamke in 4
Hewitt over Haase in 3
Nishikori over Lajovic in 3
Raonic over Gojowczyk in 3
Dimitrov over Lu in 5
Dancevic over Kyrgios in 5
Del Potro over Smyczek in 3

Murray over Odesnik in 3
Lopez over Llodra in 4
Kohlschreiber over Przysiezny in 4
Isner over Rola in 4
Tsonga over Bellucci in 3
Cilic over Brands in 5
Verdasco over Stakhovsky in 4
Federer over Stepanek in 4

Berdych over De Schepper in 3
Karlovic over Dzumhur in 4
Sousa over Anderson in 4
Haas over Roger-Vasselin in 4
Youzhny over F. Mayer in 4
Ramos over Janowicz in 5
Chardy over Dolgopolov in 5
Ferrer over Johnson in 4

Wawrinka over Falla in 3
Mahut over Pospisil in 4
Benneteau over Rosol in 3
Gasquet over Kubot in 3
Nieminen over Bogomolov in 4
Gulbis over Querrey in 4
Tursunov over Istomin in 4
Djokovic over L. Mayer in 3

Third round
Nadal over Monfils in 3
Hewitt over Nishikori in 5
Raonic over Dimitrov in 5
Del Potro over Dancevic in 3

Murray over Lopez in 3
Kohlschreiber over Isner in 5
Tsonga over Cilic in 4
Federer over Verdasco in 4

Berdych over Karlovic in 3
Haas over Sousa in 4
Youzhny over Ramos in 4
Ferrer over Chardy in 5

Wawrinka over Mahut in 3
Gasquet over Benneteau in 3
Nieminen over Gulbis in 4
Djokovic over Tursunov in 3

Fourth round
Nadal over Hewitt in 4
Del Potro over Raonic in 4
Kohlschreiber over Murray in 5
Tsonga over Federer in 5

Haas over Berdych in 5
Youzhny over Ferrer in 4
Wawrinka over Gasquet in 4
Djokovic over Nieminen in 3

Quarterfinals
Nadal over Del Potro in 4
Tsonga over Kohlschreiber in 4

Haas over Youzhny in 5
Djokovic over Wawrinka in 4

Semifinals
Nadal over Tsonga in 4
Djokovic over Haas in 3

Final
Djokovic over Nadal in 5

Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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48 Comments on 2014 Australian Open picks: Nadal vs. Djokovic in rematch of 2012

  1. I didn’t have the guts to make Murray lose that early. I also have Tsonga beating Federer, but I was scared to put him in the semifinals, since I’m not even sure he will get past Cilic. So I have Murray in the semifinals. I like your Dancevic over Paire pick. I hope that happens. I have Berdych as the other semifinalist, and have the same final. I also think Nishikori will be able to handle Hewitt.

      • I got Ferrer. I think his loss to Lu was a fluke, and I don’t think Youzhny is capable of beating him over five sets. Also, I got burned by picking Haas to reach the Auckland final last week, so I was hesistant to even put him in the round of 16.

        • I’m banking on Haas simply being disinterested in Auckland. I don’t love him right now in his current form, but he’s in the dream section of the draw.

          Ferrer was not bad. Lu was incredible the entire tournament.

      • @Ricky, sooooo………..Djoker botches an overhead smash, as is his wont, his opponent (who invariably is Saint Rafael Nadal Parera of Mallorca) wins the point as dictated by the rules of tennis, and you are saying this would be unfair and unsquare? C’mon…..

        A win is a win. It is not lack of confidence in my guy, it’s respect for Djokovic’s heart and game that he can take the GOAT to a deciding set but like all before him, he can’t help it when he comes up short in the presence of greatness…………

        Let’s see what sponge bob square pants (hint: he doesn’t fit in broom cupboards anymore!) can do about those smashes………….who knows, a pig just flew past my window!

  2. Rafa has been burying the ghosts of 2011-12 since his comeback. Miami 11 in Toronto 13, USO 11 in USO 13, AO 12 in RG 13. Now its whether Rafa can win on Djoko turf before Djoko can win on Rafa’s. A Rafa victory over the Djok can help Rafa get the Djoker slam by beating him at all 4 slams.

  3. I am wondering who are the blind ones. They surely aren’t on this site, where there is so much support for Rafa. I made my prediction already that if Rafa gets to the final against Djoker he is not losing. Not after 2012. He wont let it get away from him again.

    But I thought that Ricky would pick Djoker. Most of the tennis analysts are going with him. That’s fine. It’s his opinion and I respect it.

    However, I don’t agree with all the picks. I don’t know that I see Tsonga getting to the semis. It’s certainly possible, but I am concerned about his inconsistency. Tignor mentioned Fed bumping up against Tsonga. He could lose to him. It is also possible that Murray won’t get to the semis. Kohls could take him out if he is on his game. Youzhny over Ferrer Not sure about that one. I honestly don’t know about Ferrer. This could be the time when it all catches up to him and he doesn’t make it to week two. Youzhny is another one who can be all over the place.

    I honestly don’t see Haas getting to the semis. I don’t think he will beat Berdy. I can see Berdy getting to the semis in place of Ferrer.

    Those are just my thoughts for now.

  4. Tsonga will beat Fed in straights in 4th rd.
    My Qf picks:
    Rafa over Delpo in 4 tight sets
    Muzz over Tsonga in 4
    Ferru over Berdych in 5
    Wawa over Nole in 4

    Sf picks
    Wawa over Ferru in 4
    Rafa over Muzz in 5

    Final
    Rafa over Wawa in 4

  5. Tsonga will beat Fed in straights in 4th rd.
    My Qf picks:
    Rafa over Delpo in 4 tight sets
    Muzz over Tsonga in 4
    Ferru over Berdych in 5
    Wawa over Nole in 4

    Sf picks
    Wawa over Ferru in 4
    Rafa over Muzz in 5

    Final
    Rafa over Wawa in 4

    • Wow, @abhirf! Those are BOLD picks my man. I am tempted to declare you a Rafan right now on the basis of those preds alone because this would be music to this Rafan’s ears if they came to pass.

      While I would love for Novak to lose early, it ain’t happening, not with his soft draw. While Stan has improved in leaps and bounds, and respect to him and his team for that, he is not going to trouble Djoker this year at AO. I just do not see it.

      Like you, I do not see Fed making it to the second week. Muzza has a good draw and I can see him getting to the semis but not beyond.

    • abhirf,

      So you as a Fed fan don’t see him getting past Tsonga. Interesting. I actually think that I could get behind your picks more than Ricky’s. It is possible for Murray to beat Tsonga. I am not sure about Ferrer and Berdy.. I just am not sure about Ferrer right now. Of course, with Berdy you also never know. That one could go either way. One or the other should get to the semis.

      Wawa over Djoker is a bold one. If the match comes to pass, I do think it will be another tough one. But I would find it hard to go against Djoker. However, I like the fact that you are willing to take a risk with that pick.

      I think it’s Berdy or Ferrer to meet Djoker in the final. For now. It is possible that we could see Rafa meet Murray in the semis. These two haven’t played in two years. I would like to see that match.

      I still think it’s going to be Rafa vs. Djoker again the final. But I appreciated reading your picks. Nice to see you back posting. I hope that you will continue to join in the conversation now that the matches are about to begin.

    • abhi..its the boldest pick :-)..Are you serious or joking?

      Stan over Djoko in a GS..Djoko really has to have a very bad day..but we never know..he has had 2 very close losses to Djoko..he maybe due to get 1 back..its justice 🙂

    • Also Tsonga beating Fed in straights I think wont happen. He surely can beat him but it may take 4 or 5. This court is fast this year, so there wont be too many baseline rallies and that will help Fed

      • @Sanju, the way Fed is playing at the moment, it doesnt matter whether it’s a fast court or slow court. He will shank all over the place to lose it as quickly as possible just like last years FO! Tsonga just needs to put the ball back in the court, Jo will also be favoured by a fast conditions (if the conditions have really become fast). I would definitely like Fed to surprise me,but as of now, this result looks much more realistic.

      • @deucy,
        Nah, I do think Wawa will take a set off Rafa. Also, I believe that Wawa will finally register his 1st win over Rafa this season. He’s due.

  6. I am loving the AO 2014 already, and it hasn’t even started yet! They already have the Day 2 OOP up, hope the other Slams see and copy:

    http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/scores/schedule/schedule7.html

    Fed is scheduled to stew in the mid-day heat while Rafa is first up in the night session (19h00). Maybe not such a respite for Rafa because from what I hear, temperatures don’t begin dropping until after 20h00 in Melbourne.

  7. Well, if Djoker carries forward his last years mentality, he wont be able to do anything even if he makes it to the final against Rafa. He just didnt looked like he wanted to work hard for those titles. Only after he lost the no.1 ranking, he showed that hunger and will to win. Even I’m surprised by my pick coz Nole seems unbeatable to me at Oz Open. Also, I think Wawa has made great strides and has the ability to catch him on an off day (maybe the law of averages will catch him)

    There are only 3 players who can challenge Rafa : Delpo, Muzz n Nole. Delpo n Muzz’s health status make me too circumspect to even make up a case for them. This has been Delpo’s worst GS. And Muzz will definitely make it to the SF’s but I dont think he is ready to face Rafa.

    Either way, there’s quite a lot of unpredictability this time due to the draws and form of the players.

    • well done to abhirf for being ‘objective’ in his picks…this is not easy to do…despite being being an avid fed fan, he has picked fed to lose in straight sets.. I appreciate this objectivity,which is often lacking in so many die hard fed fans, rafa fans, nole fans ..

  8. @abhirf,

    I appreciate you explaining a bit more of the reasoning for your picks. I give you credit for being willing to take the risk of picking Wawa. I wonder if he can find that extra something that can put him over the top. He certainly is capable of giving Djoker a fight. He may be the only one who can in his part of the draw.

    I am debating whether Murray can make it to the semis. I know that Tignor did predict that he would get there. I do think that his early round matches are doable and that could give him time to get into some decent form. I am not ruling it out at all at this point. I think Rafa would be too tough for him at this stage.

    I am really anxious to see how everyone looks in their early round matches.

      • I do feel Muzz can do it. This has arguably been his best slam. He can have decent match practice in his battle till Qf’s. I do believe in him to give it a tough fight.

  9. Here’s Tignor articulating very well the apparent discrepancies in the players’ take on the speed of the courts:

    http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2014/01/surface-matter/50217/

    Rafa is right when he says the courts have been quickened because he did not play last year when the incremental change was made. Muzza and Djokovic are right when they say they are playing the same as last year and Fed is …….well, Fed.

    “First, Nadal didn’t play in Melbourne in 2013. Last year Federer said basically the same thing about the courts here, that they were a little bit faster than they had been in 2012, especially Laver. Put two years of incremental increase together and the speed may have been a surprise to Rafa.”

    I also like Tiggy’s opinion, which meshes with Rafa, that Oz Open courts should not be sped up:

    “Speeding up the courts isn’t going to turn any current pro into a serve-and-volleyer overnight, but tennis should still do it at some of its tournaments. There’s no question that the sport, both men’s and women’s versions, could use more stylistic variety; the next Murray-like talent should feel that he needs to use all of his all-court skills to win. But the Aussie Open isn’t the place to do it. It has established itself as a home to medium-slow hard courts, and naysayers to the contrary, those courts have been producing brilliant tennis for years. The time to speed things up is at the end of the year, during the U.S. hard-court and indoor seasons. Faster-paced tennis is the tradition there, one that should be brought back.”

    Totally agree with you, Tiggy.

  10. I love how Kevin Mitchell begins by saying Rafa has the toughest draw and concludes by saying he will win:

    ” Rafael Nadal given toughest of draws for Melbourne Park
    After a fortnight’s struggle, I expect Nadal will be the one picking up the winner’s cheque for $2,650,000, and Djokovic settling for half that amount after another memorable final.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/jan/11/australian-open-rafael-nadal-bernard-tomic

    #Contrarian
    #Vamos

  11. RT @SI_BTBaseline: “We’ve seen ice towels, but #AusOpen staff are prepping a good number of ice vests for players to wear on changeovers to stay cool.”

    • Creating those vests also leads me to believe the organizers will do everything possible to not have to close the roof. An article I read said that many factors are taken into account before deciding to close it, not just temperature. Humidity, wind, cloud cover, and a host of other factors are considered. It could be 108 degrees, but if there’s cloud cover protecting players from the direct glare of the sun, they would still leave it open. So, my hope is that conditions will be as miserable as possible, but not miserable enough to close the roof. No one “enjoys the suffering” more than Rafa.

  12. RT @SI_BTBaseline: “Gilles Simon was on crutches yesterday but he’s still in the draw. @lequipe reports he’ll test the ankle Monday. #ausopen”

    Fool he…………

  13. On vb they were discussing the fact that Rafa did not play at the AO last year and that was why he thought that the courts were do fast, whereas other players who were there last year didn’t really see a difference. I brought it up somewhere here on another topic thread.

    They were also discussing the balls and how they bounce on this surface. We know that high bouncing balls help Rafa’s game. I am not sure if anyone there knew how the balls were bouncing. That should be part of the conversation, since it also has some significance.

    I also hope that they make an effort not to close the roof, as Jpacnw said. The idea of ice vests seems like a good one.

    I can’t wait to see Rafa’s first match. I hope the time difference won’t make it too crazy. I know that ESPN’s coverage today will start at 4:00 pm through to midnight.

  14. NNY7: Rafa’s first match is 7pm local time Tuesday in Rod Laver arena. It’s a 17 hour difference between Melbourne and west coast USA. So that means it’ll be midnight Mon Nite/Tues a.m. for you and me. Novak’s match is at midnight tonite.

    • Jpacnw,

      Thanks so much for the time conversion. I usually go to vb to get it because they will have it at the top of their forum page. That’s definitely doable for me. I thought it was a 20 hour difference between Melbourne and west coast USA. So it’s a bit less than I thought.

      I would like to check out Djoker’s match, too.

      So we are in the same time zone! We can struggle to get through this together!

      Thanks again for the update! Now I get to see Rafa play Tomic. I hope that they don’t go jumping all over the place to cover other matches.

  15. ESPN2 will be also be live at midnight with those matches. The tennis channel is also showing some matches, but mostly it’ll be ESPN2.

    • So I should go first to ESPN? I didn’t see anything scheduled on the tennis channel for today. Somehow the two channels seem to manage to cover the matches. I assume that ESPN has priority because they are the main channel provider.

      Again, I appreciate all the info! 🙂

      • Yes, ESPN2 first. They’re the primary carrier for the tournament, unless of course the Tennis Channel is showing a match you’d rather see instead or they’re showing the same match, but you like TC’s commentators better. TC’s coverage will be more of a hodgepodge of live matches, replays, highlights, interviews, and so on.

  16. No one should waste time watching Djokovic’s matches till the Quarters. Unless you want to see some overmatched player being thrashed with bagels and breadsticks.
    Stan is overhyped.. he may challenge Djoker unlike the sacrificial victims of earlier rounds but beat Djoker? No chance. Unless Djoker is ill or injured.

  17. I just happened to have the Tennis Channel on in the background and they’re showing last year’s AO final between Novak and Andy. Martina Navratilova, one of the commentators, was just mentioning in that broadcast that “this year these courts are playing faster than previous years.” So, perhaps they did speed it up last year and Rafa, of course, wasn’t there to notice.

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