Rome SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Opelka

It will be quite a contrast in just about every way when the first semifinal at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia takes place on Saturday afternoon.

Rafael Nadal is the King of Clay, a nine-time champion of the Rome Masters in addition to having won the French Open 13 times. He is dogged competitor from the back of the court whose game is tailor made for the terre battue. Reilly Opelka had never been to the semis of any Masters 1000 tournament prior to this week. He is one of the biggest servers on tour and also one of the flattest ball-strikers; nothing suggests the 6’11” American would be a force on clay. In fact, he had won only two ATP main-draw matches on clay in his entire career prior to arriving in Rome.

The result is a first-ever meeting between these two wildly different players.

Altho Nadal’s presence in the last four was expected, he was twice one point away from going out in the quarterfinals against Denis Shapovalov. The world No. 2 fought off two match points before prevailing 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(3) after three hours and 27 minutes and then he avenged a Madrid loss to Alexander Zverev with a more straightforward 6-3, 6-4 victory on Friday. Nadal had previously battled past Jannik Sinner 7-5, 6-4 during a second-round action.

On paper, this is Nadal’s easiest matchup of the week. Of course, Opelka’s massive serve and first-strike tennis make him a serious threat any time he takes the court. He is especially dangerous when playing confidently, and that is exactly what he is doing in Rome. Opelka did not drop a single set while punching his semifinal ticket with wins over Richard Gasquet, Lorenzo Musetti, Aslan Karatsev, and Federico Delbonis. Improbably, in four matches he has been pushed to only two tiebreakers.

“It is probably just a fluke,” Opelka said of his Rome run.

Nadal, though, won’t be looking ahead to another final appearance.

“[I will face] a big chance against a player who has almost an unreturnable serve,” the Spaniard assessed. “[Reilly] is playing well. I need to be very focussed with my serve and then try to be ready to accept [the situation] and be [engaged] on the return. That is what I am looking for.”

As well as Opelka is playing, Rome probably isn’t the setting where would have decent chance of upsetting–or even being competitive with–Nadal. The high altitude in Madrid would be far more conducive to Opelka’s game, just as it was for Zverev when he defeated Nadal a week ago. Rome conditions should give the second seed time to get a fair amount of returns in play, and his confidence from wins over Sinner, Shapovalov, and Zverev is just additional bad news for Opelka.

Pick: Nadal in 2 with no tiebreakers