Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Federer

Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer will not be the championship matchup at the Nitto ATP Finals, but aside from that the stakes could hardly be higher on Thursday night.

Djokovic and Federer will collide in what is virtually a quarterfinal, with the winner advancing to the semis and the loser bowing out of the tournament. Both all-time greats have been put on thin ice in London by Dominic Thiem, who upset Federer in the opening match of the week and then stunned Djokovic in a three-set thriller on Tuesday.

This marks the 49th career meeting between Djokovic and Federer, with the Serb leading the head-to-head series 26-22. What matters more than the overall score is that Djokovic has won five in a row and nine of their last 11 meetings. Federer has not picked up a win since the 2015 year-end championship, where he prevailed 7-5, 6-2 during round-robin action only to see Djokovic get him back with a 6-3, 6-4 triumph in the title match. They have square off just once in 2019 and it needs no reminder: a five-set epic in the Wimbledon final that went the 32-year-old’s way from double-championship point down.

“Maybe it took me a few days, couple weeks at most, to get over the Wimbledon loss,” Federer said following his 7-6(2), 6-3 defeat of Matteo Berrettini on Tuesday and before Djokovic lost to Thiem. “At the end of the day, I still thought I played a great final and a great tournament, beating [Rafael Nadal] there along the way. I’m excited playing against him. I’m excited to see how he’s going to play tonight, as well. It’s definitely going to give me some more information about what to expect.

“But other than that, I think I need to focus on my game, what I do best. And regardless of what I need to do, I just hope I play well.”

Perhaps the information Federer received from Djokovic vs. Thiem is that the world No. 2 is beatable, but also that Thiem played probably the best match of his career–in the Austrian’s own words–and still required a third-set tiebreaker to get across the finish line.

“I knew that I had to play like this to beat him,” Thiem explained. “Probably Novak is the best player in the world right now, so I had to do something outstanding, something unusual, and that’s what I did.”

Despite the setback, Djokovic–who must beat Federer and go on to win the event if he wants to finish the season No. 1–is still 13-2 this fall with titles in Tokyo and Paris. The 16-time Grand Slam champion is 27-4 in his last 31 matches inside the O2 Arena with titles 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015 plus another trophy from Shanghai in 2008. He has been stellar again this week, getting victimized only by Thiem’s onslaught two days after erasing Berrettini 6-2, 6-1.

Based on current form and recent head-to-head history, Djokovic is clearly the favorite on Thursday. But these two almost always deliver the goods against each other and dramatic matches have suddenly become the norm in London.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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71 Comments on Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Federer

  1. Federer in 3. He will avenge his Wimbledon defeat by taking the year-end #1 out of Djokovic’s hands. He would also ensure that the Serb doesn’t improve his ATP finals titles record.

    The surface is ridiculously fast this year, this should play in Roger’s hands. Then Novak is under much more pressure.

    It is easy to appear “stellar” when you play someone which is not in your league. Poor Berrettini was by far the weakest of the top 8 and he was also overwhelmed to play his first ever ATP finals game against the main favourite.

    Like I said before the previous round, Djokovic lost to any worthy opponent he met after Wimbledon and the same will happen tomorrow.

    • Reinvented himself? He’s used to serving so well, the court seems quick here and low bouncing, suits his game to the T, unlike in the past WTFs where the surface was slow and higher bouncing.

      What I like about this Fed is his very quick footwork, and his blocking back returns of serves. Also, he looks so alert, and great with his reflexes. I do think indoor courts really suits his style, no outdoor elements to hinder the precision of his serve and his shots.

  2. Thankyoy Roger for the wedding gift to Rafa…very well played

    I think Rafa has sent a kiss emoji to roger on WhatsApp saying thanks honey:-)

    Btw djoker played really really bad..the pressure totally got to him…he was just a pale version of himself

  3. Woooo hoo rafans!!! Rafa is numero uno 😃😃😃😃

    Roger gives rafa a wedding present. Now rafa can withdraw and go fishing for alll i care🤣🤣

  4. Beautiful match from Roger! Incredible performance, indeed!
    Congrats Fedfans! This is just amazing that at his age Fed looks this flawless! Pure class!

  5. Yes, Fed wins, in straight sets! Thank you Fed for helping Rafa secures his fifth YE no.1!

    Very well played by Fed, from start to finish. Fed in this mood, he’s almost unbeatable by anyone! What a way to end this decade beating Djoko the best player of this decade!

    Fed may win his 7th YEC here, and what a way to end the decade if he wins it. He should be physically fresh with such a short match and a day’s rest before the SF. Congrats to Fed, he’s the king of quick courts, indoors or outdoors.

  6. Thanks Roger baby!
    Actually very pleased he got this win after the horrible loss at wimby!
    Congrats Fed fans!!
    Rafa is numero uno!😀😀💜💜👑👑🎆🎆🎇🎇

    • HI Amy. Good to see you. Congratulations on Rafa YE. Kinda makes it up for last years wimbledon. Doesnt it?. Or have we almost forgotten it now that he is YE #1 :). To be tied with Fed and Djok and kinda increase his weeks over 200 and possibly getting closer to those two. Not too difficult to think he could have a decent start to the year and gain points during Clay.

      Wish you well Amy. Keep the politics aside enough to not bother you too much. Enjoy the rest of the year and have a wonderful new one and to All.

  7. amy,

    You’re here! Where have you been? I watched the match and Fed was flawless. He turned back the clock for this one.

    Rafa is year end #1!!
    😍👆

  8. Whilst we are all thanking roger for the help, let’s not forget Rafa is no 1 due to the excellent play all year and not just this match..he has won 2 slams n 2 masters n reached semis of all tourneys played till Paris masters ..I’m sure they will ask fed this question in presser n he will say the same thing

    • Hello nny!! Missed you too darling! Am horribly tired with politics and so on..
      I will be here tomorrow afternoon for Rafa tsitsi so hope we can catch up?!!
      Xxx

        • amy dear,

          I did see the match. Fed was a man on a mission in this match. He had a game plan and executed it to perfection. He crowded the baseline, played very aggressive and served amazing!

          Congratulations to Fed and his fans! This one must have felt good after that tough loss at Wimbledon.

          I should say commiserations to dearest Elizabeth. I am sure this was not fun to watch. I know it probably was hard for her to see the one sided support of the fans for Fed. We are celebrating, but should not forget those who may be feeling down right now.

          Hang in there, Elizabeth! 😘

          • amy,

            Those stats you quoted are accurate! Fed was that good! I am just happy to see you here! I told Elizabeth that this site is a better place when she is here. The same goes for you!

            We are at ground zero here in Florida for the 2020 election! You, me and Elizabeth have to get on the non-tennis forum for some political brainstorming.
            😀

  9. Very poor from Novak- he spends so much effort bothering about the crowd and their reactions- staggering to think how this man has won 16 slams considering how mentally weak he appears to more ‘fan favoured’ players. Very poor performance and very disappointed in him,

    • Please no. Djoko isn’t weak minded, when he could come back from the brink of defeat to beat great players like Fed and Rafa. It’s just not his day, and there’s not much he could do, when your opponent was this great and hardly made any errors.

  10. I particularly like Fed’s quick reflexes (at his age!) and the way he moves his legs, so quick around the court (and at his age!).

    I like the way he blocks back returns esp on quick courts against big serves. I hope Rafa can do that too!

  11. Fed you absolute LEGEND! How can you play like this at 38?!

    Novak was nervous and you could see he was not totally comfortable out there but man, this RF would have been too much for anyone I guess.

    So, Rafa gets his 5th year-end no.1 ! Sampras’s record is intact !

    Rafa can now relax and play aggressively tomorrow.

    • LMAO!! Exactly atul, well said. Congrats to rafa for the year end no.1. With all the numerous horrific injuries and some self doubts (as he said), he wins 2 slams, 2 masters both in hard and clay courts and is year end world no 1.

      Take a bow Rafael Nadal!

  12. Who would have thought after the disastrous 15 and 16, Rafa with moya on board would finish the year ranked no 1 twice more and get 5 slams ..congrats Rafa…

    Let’s see how far he goes here in this tourney…it’s strange as it’s based on calculations n the fact that you can lose n still win is wierd 🙂

  13. Wooohoooo! So happy for Rafa’s well-deserved YE #1!!!! Congrats to Fed for making the semis! Condolences to RC – she seems to have seen this one coming, although few others did.

    Still hope Rafa makes the semis but not stressing over it. Good luck to the semi-finalists and please, please, no injuries, seen too many of those this year already.

  14. First off, congrats to Rafa for his 5th year-end #1! He really deserves it! As for Fed, I am impressed that he came out very confident and prepared to compete for the win. I guess it shouldn’t be too surprising as he did have 40-15 championship point on serve the last time they played.

    What I am honestly most impressed about with Fed in this match was that he was playing to keep Novak from from potentially having more year-end #1’s than he and Rafa. Of course this is likely only temporary, as he’s on the verge of retirement, while Novak and Rafa are 5-6 years younger. But you never know what can happen, and I give props to Fed for winning this match with history on the line. In terms of his legacy, there was infinitely more on the line when he had championship points against Novak at Wimbledon, but maybe this win will give him some sort of consolation? However you slice it, this was a great win for 38 year old Fed, and should give him confidence going into the SF. Personally, I would love to see Fed win his 7th WTF, as he has surely really wanted to win this title again for a while. As Lucky suggested above, Fed is surely the greatest fast court player I’ve ever had the pleasure of watching. Sampras and Novak obviously have solid arguments for this, but my eyes tell me that Fed takes the cake in that regard.

  15. Rafa can keep no.1 for a while now.. for a change he can gain points during the next clay season.. especially if he has a decent australian open..glad rafa will be crossing the 200 week mark and set a new record for being the oldest no.1

    It seems barring 2008 fed has qualified for the semis evrytime he has played. That is mind boggling consistency

    • Yes he was very upset is a fact. I don’t know though on cheering of df. Can’t make it out on TV.

      But I fail to understand why so much disregard or disrespect ? Has it got to do with the country he comes from or coz he dared to break the duopoly of fedal ?

      • It is nowhere as bad when he faces Rafa.. it is only when he faces Fed.. maybe the crowd roots for Fed in what they deem to be his swansong years.. but absolutely unwarranted to cheer dfs.. It is bad enough to deal with the inner demons when one is playing lousily without the crowd riling you up. In fact i think nole does not do his roars/ gesticulations towards his team while facing roger since he does not want to give the crowd more joy than they are getting already. The guy threw a tantrum when he made a mistake being 4-0 up against berretini but was so detached today. Also some perspective is that nole had been playing after a brutal match against thiem nearly three hours with the added pressure of it being a must win, not to forget he is not a young turk either though he is a younger turk than fed.
        Anyway second time i rooted for fed against djoko today. First was rg2011 when the mere thought of djokovic facing rafa was unsettling

        • I think the way Federer’s fans behave towards all his opponents, maybe except Rafa when they are a lot quieter, is way over the top. I sat next to the Swiss fans at the O2 once. They are so loud. They wave their flags and banners in your face all the time, behaving like his opponent has no right to beat him.

          Djokovic has earned his place at the top. He should be treated with more respect.

      • My take on the reason for the hostility towards Novak.

        When Rafa came on the scene, Roger had already cornered the fan base and Rafa didn’t go down very well with them hence all the negative accusations about his biceps etc. A handful of those Fedfans may have switched over to Rafa in time but I think Rafa developed his own fanbase of people who, either didn’t watch much tennis before and liked him and his game or weren’t fans of Federer anyway but liked Rafa. By the time Novak came on the scene, the fanbase was split down the middle and Novak doesn’t seem to have developed his own fan base. The more he wins the more hostile the Fedal fanbases become.

        • @Nadline,

          I think you’re right about the fanbases. In addition there’s a lot of people who perceive Djokovic’s current personality as “fake”. I’ve seen messages from them – and I have the same reaction myself. There’s just something about him that pushes a button. Maybe he just comes across as trying too hard to be liked. I don’t think it has anything to do with being Serbian. Look how popular Ana Ivanovich was! But it’s really tough to lose and have everyone so happy about it.

          • Basically, people are not going to switch sides just because you are a winner when you are beating their favourite player. You need to appeal to a new group of people.

            Djokovic believes that Rafa and Roger are popular because they were the top 2 players for a while so when he started winning he assumed his popularity would go sky high but I don’t think that was the only reason for the Fedal popularity.

  16. I am so happy for Rafa for a wonderful 5th YE end. He has many times deserved to get there and ran out of luck with injuries.

    But now that Fed beat Djokovic it does feel a bit anti climactic. I would love Rafa to do something magical and go on to perhaps win the title ( unless Zverev has something to say about it tonite).

    My commiserations to Elizabeth. but two slams two masters and a close YE race is something to be cheered as a fan. Every so often it seems like one has to give way for the other to achieve more. Much like Nadal paved the way on a tight wimbledon epic last year and opened for Djokovic to have a sensational comeback and an other year of dominance and possibly inching towards all time.

    I cant come to love Novak but cant deny the fact that in many ways he has been the best. I cant speak for other Rafans but I fear him and I fear he will outdo the other two and as a Rafan I am not comfortable with that.

  17. Next ao will be key .don’t count out roger to win it all.. laver has already said roger can win it. It means courts will be super fast 🙂

  18. Novak Djokovic should give himself more credit. He had his issues in his younger days and there was no way he was going to create a fanbase as big as his rivals’.

    He has EARNED his way to the top and I have massive, massive respect for what he has done. In 2010, the guy considered quitting the game because he just couldn’t beat Fedal at slams. It is beyond belief how he turned the situation around and became the mental, physical and shot-making giant we all know him to be.

    The things he can do on a tennis court are unique- just like it is the case with Fedal.

    I hope the crowds around the world can at least have more ‘respect’ for him if not passionate following/admiration.

    Rafa is the king in my book but I can’t help but say it is JAW-DROPPING what Federer and Djokovic have done. We can all have our preferences but denying the utter greatness of the other two is delusion of the highest order.

  19. And come on, let’s not judge someone so harshly. We have no idea how much effort these guys put in and how many sacrifices he makes. I’ve never ‘liked’ Djokovic but I see him as the most gracious loser amongst the top players! There is always warmth in his embraces at the net even when he loses and no way you can fake this when you are facing such difficult defeats.

    I think the guy genuinely matured and got over his antics. If that weren’t the case, this era wouldn’t have seen such dominance from this man. From being called ‘Chokovic’ to holding the Nole slam, clinching 5 year-end no.1’s, taking it to Fedal in the head to head and winning 29 masters 100( in this decade)!

    I can totally see why his fanbase is not as big and why Fedal are more likable. But, at least as far as I am concerned, I have utmost respect for his game and his achievements.

  20. Well my rationale is..fed has more fans in the bracket who are 35 plus today and who are his fans from early 20s whereas rafas fans are younger. He is more popular amongst kids, youth and youngsters in general because of his gladiator intense fighting spirit and ofcourse with ladies( maybe the smile works there alongside the game and machismo ).

    So you have 2 sections split between the two. Who is left then for Djokovic to win over except some neutrals or plain tennis lovers who just admire the game.

  21. Djokovic does get a lack of respect or appreciation from crowds generally, and I do feel sorry for him for that. I don’t think there’s any one reason for it, it’s more a combination of factors.

    If you look at Fed’s early years, he wasn’t really that popular and he had a bratty temperament. Then he turned into a machine that dominated the competition (bar clay) before Nadal’s level grew. Once that happened you had a perfect rivalry of contrasting styles, a 2nd marketing of ‘fire vs ice’, and that really helped the public’s interest and imagination with tennis. The rivalry took the game to new heights, and both players seemed to have a great love and respect for the game which also helped to endear them to many.

    Personally I was glad when Djokovic came along and changed the picture. But it seems a lot of people saw him as this interlocutor getting in the way of the rivalry, some fans saw him as an interruption. Some of his behaviour wouldn’t have helped either – mainly the number of smashed racquets, but also stuff with injury timeouts. Still, I thought he was a reasonably likeable guy, his impressions showed he definitely had a sense of humour at least.

    I agree with the comment above that Djokovic probably expected his appreciation to grow more than it has, which has led to some feelings of inferiority. His reaction probably compounded the problem, as it’s obvious he wants to be liked (similar to a schoolkid who will try anything to be popular), but he is then perceived as insincere. He has dealt with these issues well, but they still obviously remain.

    I think the Serb/Eastern Europe factor probably exists to some extent as well, a certain snobbishness in parts of the world, but I don’t think it’s the driving factor.

    Another issue is just the way Novak’s game doesn’t seem to capture the casual fans so much as Nadal’s or Federer’s. It’s not nearly as distinctive as the other two guys, and to the less familiar tennis followers, probably doesn’t look so impressive. If you go through something like Youtube comments (god help you) you’ll see trolling from all sides, but the comments complaining about ‘boring’ tennis are largely still reserved for Djokovic. Even though I don’t personally like his style like I do Fed’s, I think this is unfair, there is plenty of excitement in a Djokovic/Murray match, it’s just a different kind of match-up.

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