Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Federer vs. Berrettini

There is some good news for Matteo Berrettini: he’s here.

And that “just happy to be here” mentality may be the correct way of looking at things, because Berrettini has basically no chance of qualifying for the semifinals unless he wins his next two round-robin matches at the Nitto ATP Finals. Day one of the 23-year-old Italian’s London debut was an unmitigated disaster, as he not only won just three games against Novak Djokovic–crippling his chances of advancing due to the small number of games won–but also found himself matched up with Roger Federer on Tuesday.

Berrettini probably expected to face Dominic Thiem in his second appearance of the week, but those ideas changed when Thiem upset Federer 7-5, 7-5 on Sunday night to book a spot alongside Djokovic in Tuesday’s winners’ showdown. Thus it will be Berrettini vs. Federer on Tuesday afternoon for the second time in their careers–and also second time in this city. They previously met in the Wimbledon fourth round this summer, when Federer dominated 6-1, 6-1, 6-2.

It’s not saying a lot, but Berrettini should feel more comfortable now that he has one match inside the O2 Arena under his belt and having already played against Federer once before.

“For sure I was nervous,” the world No. 8 said following his loss to Djokovic. “First time in the (ATP) Finals after a great year, so yeah I was nervous; but not in a bad way. Normally when I step in the court and I don’t feel nervous, something is wrong. I have to feel nervous to play my best tennis. I think I started the match pretty [well], but he was just better than me today. So (I’m) just accepting the loss, and for sure I’m looking forward to play the next matches.”

Federer surely can’t wait to get back out there and make amends for his opening loss to Thiem, who now leads their head-to-head series 5-2. The 38-year-old Swiss looked a bit rusty after skipping the Paris Masters, but he should improve dramatically in match number two. In 16 previous trips to the year-end championship, Federer has never lost back-to-back round-robin matches.

Nothing Berrettini did in their Wimbledon encounter or against Djokovic on Sunday suggests Federer is in danger of suddenly losing two straight.

Pick: Federer in 2

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4 Comments on Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Federer vs. Berrettini

  1. Fed should be able to win this in straight sets, Berrittini just doesn’t have the tennis skills and acumen to match Fed’s even when Fed is not playing his usual good level.

    Fed has to win this one to stay alive in the group. Three of the top four have lost their first RR matches. Djoko clearly the best player so far.

    Rafa and Medvedev, one of them may have to go home early, together with Berrittini most likely.

  2. Federer in 3 (Fed can win but it’s going to be close, I think) There were surprises in Group A. Could be an surprise or two in this group on this day. 🤔

    • AHh well, anyway. The first set was close. Sorry for Berrettini.
      An improvement over his first RR match.

      Fed wins. Good match, classic Fed post match interview. 😀

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