Wimbledon best bets: Federer vs. Nadal and Djokovic vs. Bautista Agut

The Wimbledon men’s singles draw meandered its inevitable way from 128 to four–or, more specifically, to the “Big 3” plus Roberto Bautista Agut. If there has been a relative lack of intrigue (other than Nadal vs. Nick Kyrgios) up to this point, semifinal Friday has a chance to make up for it.

Here are some of the best bets going into the final four:

(2) Roger Federer vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Federer and Nadal will be facing each other for the 40th time in their careers. Nadal leads the head-to-head series 24-15 after most recently cruising past Federer in predictable 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 fashion in the French Open semifinals one month ago. There is, however, some good news for Federer. Fourteen of the 37-year-old’s 24 losses have come on clay and he boasts a 13-10 advantage over Nadal in their 23 meetings on other surfaces.

Now the question is: will a transition from Nadal’s personal playground to Federer’s stomping grounds completely turn the tide from a straight-set beatdown issued by the Spaniard to a win for the Swiss? That, would be quite a turnaround, of course. It is true that grass makes a big difference in Federer’s favor, but year after year the All-England Club grass seems to be playing slower and slower. Even 11 years ago, the last time they faced each other here, Nadal triumphed 6-4, 6-4, 6-7(5), 6-7(8), 9-7 in the final—what many consider to be the greatest match ever played. This should be another good one, but Nadal (just turned 33) remains closer to his prime than his longtime rival and he has been in scorching form this fortnight.

Pick: Nadal to win (-130)

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (23) Roberto Bautista Agut

Don’t sleep on the other semifinal. Sure, it’s not Federer vs. Nadal; and most matchups between a Big 3 player and an opponent outside the Big 3 result in lopsided snoozers. But RBA always comes to play—especially against Djokovic. In fact, the underdog Spaniard is 2-0 against Djokovic this year (he came back from a set down to win on hard courts in Doha and Miami). RBA is also on fire in London, where he was the only man to win every single set he played en route to the quarterfinals. The world No. 22 seed finally dropped one to Guido Pella in thee quarters but still got the job done with little trouble.

Djokovic has enjoyed a similar trek, having surrendered only one set to Hubert Hurkacz last Friday. The top-seeded Serb is a four-time title winner at Wimbledon, including the defending champion, so it is almost impossible to bet against him when anyone other than Federer or Nadal is on the other side of the net. He also still leads the head-to-head series with RBA 7-3 despite his two recent losses. Don’t go crazy and pick an upset, but this one should be competitive.

Pick: Both players to win a set +120

Futures: Odds to win the title

Novak Djokovic: -165
Rafael Nadal: +315
Roger Federer: +350
Roberto Bautista Agut: +3300

Of the Big 3, Nadal is the most battle-tested navigated the toughest path to the QFs. He beat extremely dangerous big hitters in Kyrgios and Sam Querrey, winning the best match of the tournament against Kyrgios (second) before rolling over Querrey 7-5, 6-2, 6-2 (quarters). Both Spaniards have good value now; in fact, they’ve always had good value.

Best value: Nadal +315

Worth a small bet: Bautista Agut +3300

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