World Tour Finals semis preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nishikori

Novak Djokovic and Kei Nishikori will be facing each other at the World Tour Finals for a third consecutive year when they meet again on Saturday night.

Djokovic is dominating the overall head-to-head series 10-2 and has won each of their two previous encounters at the O2 Arena. The 12-time major champion prevailed 6-1, 3-6, 6-0 in the 2014 semis before cruising 6-1, 6-1 during round-robin competition last fall. He has taken nine matches in a row from Nishikori since getting stunned 6-4, 1-6, 7-6(4), 6-3 in the 2014 U.S. Open semifinals.

Losses were few and far between for Djokovic from the fall of 2014 through this spring. But after capturing the French Open title for the first time in his career, the Serb endured a string of surprising defeats–most notably to Sam Querrey at Wimbledon and to Juan Martin Del Potro at the Rio Olympics. A return trip to the World Tour Finals, however, appears just what the doctor ordered. He went 3-0 in Group B with victories over Dominic Thiem, Milos Raonic, and David Goffin, surrendering only his opening set to Thiem.
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“Everything has been going in a positive direction,” Djokovic assured. “I’ve been playing better and better as I [have progressed] in the tournament.”

The four-time defending champion is now an unbelievable 22-1 in his last 23 matches at the year-end championship, with his only setback during this stretch having come to Roger Federer in a 2015 round-robin contest after Djokovic had already qualified for the semifinals.

For Nishikori, on the other hand, his work has only become tougher and tougher with each match. The world No. 5 coasted past Wawrinka 6-2, 6-3, lost to Murray 6-7(9), 6-4, 6-4 in three hours and 20 minutes, and then fell to a previously winless Marin Cilic 3-6, 6-2, 6-3 on Friday night.
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A three-set, one-hour and 53-minute tilt was not what Nishikori needed in his round-robin finale on the heels of his huge struggle against Murray. Now he has to face an opponent who has been almost untouchable at the O2 Arena over the past five seasons.

With the tennis world potentially one day away from a final showdown for the year-end No. 1 ranking between Djokovic and Murray, Djokovic will almost certainly hold up his end of the bargain.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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22 Comments on World Tour Finals semis preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nishikori

  1. Really happy for Marin to get his first win in London. He deserved it and may have deserved even more here at the O2. He was placed in a tough section. He would’ve most likely made the semis from Novak’s section imo. Also he’s gonna be at a career high ranking of 6 to end the season. Meanwhile, if Kei doesn’t upset Novak, Raonic claims a career high for himself of world number 3. Great season for Milos. Has played fantastic tennis at WTF. I think ever since Wimbledon, where McEnroe was helping and encouraging Raonic to be more expressive on court and really get pumped, Milos has become more of an emotional and interesting player to watch. He’s shown lots of fire throughout this week. He was the better player for a lot of the match against Djoker. I thought he was gonna pull out the second and third sets of that match. I think he just had a hiccup when realizing he had a shot to finally beat Novak.

    • I love how Milos improved this year, he became a smarter player and more aware of his strengths and weaknesses. I still think he will be the next ”first time” GS winner.

  2. That’s the problem with these players like Raonic, Kei, Thiem and Goffin. Once they realized that they were in winning positions against the big four guys, they started to go tense and felt the pressure (of winning!).

    It was the same for Cilic, until he won his USO title. Cilic’s recent win over Djoko (he was 0-14 before that) was a big step forward for him, knowing now that if he played great in the zone tennis and sustained that throughout,he could beat the big four guys. Stan is another one; but after pushing Djoko to the limit at AO2013, he finally realized that he actually could stay with the big boys and finally beat them in big matches (he had beaten all the big four guys at the slams, though Rafa was with an injured back that one time Stan beat him at AO).

    Delpo was the only guy who did have the belief right from the start – beating Rafa first, then Fed at USO 2009 as a 20 yo.

    • The victory against Fed was the real barrier for Del Potro, Nadal was well out of form. However, where he should have closed the door on a big victory was the French that year. Would have taken the title if he closed his chance in the second set of the semifinal.

      • May not be, Sod was in excellent form that year and anyone not Fed in the final, I bet that Sod would win his first and only slam there at the FO. Delpo struggled through his match vs Fed, even if he won that one, he might not be in tip top conditions for the final.

    • At the 2009 US Open, Rafa had a right abdominal muscle injury. He got injured in Cincinnati and the tear was getting worse at the US Open.

  3. Djokovic is hungry again. Wants to win the final to regain momentum heading into the new season. Will use Nishikori as a practice session for Murray. Nishikori will be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

    Djokovic in 2.

  4. Novak in two, doubt somehow it will be even close, i assume he will make the final, would be great to see a competitive second semi, so that both players arrive in the final on a more even keel, and Novak has had alot less time on court than Andy ….

    • Hi alison, Nole in 2.
      I’m rooting for Kei – he’s a complete underdog and as much as I like Nole, I don’t like watching Kei get dusted by Nole. Anyway, hope Kei’s got something left to make this a good SF. Tomorrow, will be tough. I really want Andy to have YE #1 and win WTF but Nole ole is looking good – he’s accustomed to winning here. Yes, agree about Nole’s draw and I believe he’s improving as he goes along, but vs Goffin and Monfils, how good Nole is is tough to assess. He wobbled a litte vs Thiem and I wouldn’t think playing Raonic in two tiebreaks is easy or any fun! Nole made it look easy tho.

      Feels like Nole to will win tomorrow. But let’s see how it goes…

  5. alison, this match is very bad from a Kei fan POV! lol…? mostly facepalm, missing overheads, can’t serve, shanking…

    But if you watch Nole’s legs/feet it’s fun to watch him – a very smooth mover and lightning fast with the balance to hit almost anything from any position.

    Whoops, Kei seems to be loosening up a little…

  6. I just got home and turned on the match. I am surprised that it’s been so one-sided looking at the score. But I did pick Novak in 2 sets.

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