World Tour Finals race likely coming down to one spot

Until the U.S. Open, this year’s World Tour Finals race was a snoozer. The top eight spots in the race were in a stranglehold, owned by Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, Tomas Berdych, Kei Nishikori, Rafael Nadal, and David Ferrer.

In the tenuous eighth place, however, Ferrer lost in the third round of this season’s final Grand Slam. Thus the Spaniard was outperformed by Richard Gasquet (quarterfinals), Kevin Anderson (quarterfinals) and John Isner (fourth round). Gasquet, Anderson, and Isner are all within 825 points of Ferrer heading into the fall swing.

Ninth in the race with 2355 points (Ferrer, by comparison, has 3005), Gasquet surged up the charts with a stellar summer that featured a semifinal showing at Wimbledon and quarterfinal performances at the Cincinnati Masters and U.S. Open. The 11th-ranked Frenchman pulled out of next week’s event in Kuala Lumpur, so his fall swing will begin in October. He compiled a modest 3-4 record in tournament play last fall, but Davis Cup commitment–semis and final–surely did not help. Gasquet has no such distraction this time around and can focus on a push for London.

Anderson is 800 points south of Ferrer and 150 points behind Gasquet after reaching a major quarterfinal for the first time in his career. The 6’8” South African, who also advanced to the Wimbledon fourth round before succumbing to Djokovic in five sets, is 9-1 in his last 10 matches having triumphed in Winston-Salem prior to the U.S. Open. Anderson’s 2014 fall campaign included quarterfinal finishes in Valencia and Paris–where he lost 6-4 in the third to both Murray and Berdych, respectively.

Isner plays his best tennis either in the United States or–if he is abroad–for the United States (unless he has to face James Ward, of course). The 13th-ranked American has never made any secret about having a disdain for being away from home, where he can watch the Carolina Panthers, Georgia football, and Monday Night Raw wrestling. Just 20 points behind Anderson at 11th in the race, though, Isner is well within striking distance of an alternate spot if not a place in the top eight altogether. He will have to fare extremely well in at least one Masters 1000 tournament and 500-point event this fall. And he always has a chance to do so on a fast hard court–even in Europe.

A wrench would be thrown into the equation if Murray carries out his threat to withdraw from London, choosing instead to prepare for the Davis Cup final that will take place the following week on clay in Belgium. After leading Great Britain into the championship tie by beating Australia last weekend, Murray said he would consider skipping the World Tour Finals (held on an indoor hard court) if the Belgians chose clay (they confirmed clay as the surface of choice earlier this week).

A similar situation presented itself to Roger Federer in 2014, when Switzerland hosted the Davis Cup final on clay. Federer never considered bypassing the year-end championship, but he jeopardized his Davis Cup status by incurring a back injury in London that forced him to retire from the final against Djokovic. The 17-time major champion lost his first rubber in Switzerland to France’s Gael Monfils but bounced back two days later to clinch the title at Gasquet’s expense.

Lurking behind Isner in the current 2015 standings, Marin Cilic, Milos Raonic, and Gilles Simon would likely need to win either Shanghai or Paris in addition to getting a withdrawal from Murray.

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