World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Federer

Fed 1Either Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer will improve to 2-0 at the World Tour Finals and take control of Group Stan Smith on Tuesday. Djokovic is coming off a straight-set beatdown of Kei Nishikori, while Federer made similarly quick work of Tomas Berdych.

A tie will be broken–at least temporarily–when Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer square off for the 43rd time in their careers during round-robin action at the World Tour Finals on Tuesday.

The head-to-head series stands at 21-21 following Djokovic’s 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-4 triumph in the U.S. Open final this summer. Djokovic has won four of six meetings in 2015, including four of the last five. The world No. 1 also prevailed in the Wimbledon title match via a 7-6(1), 6-7(10), 6-4, 6-3 scoreline. Federer’s two victories this season have come in Dubai (6-3, 7-5) and Cincinnati (7-6(1), 6-3).

This ends a streak of four consecutive encounters between the two players in finals. But they are not entirely strangers to early-tournament meetings, as they also battled in London round-robin competition in 2013. Djokovic took that match 6-4, 6-7(2), 6-2 to improve to 2-1 lifetime against Federer at this event. The Serb also got the job done in the 2012 championship match, while Federer came out on top in the 2010 semifinals. They were scheduled to vie for last year’s title, but the Swiss had to withdraw due to a back injury.

Federer is dealing with no such troubles now and can leave everything on the court without a Davis Cup final to worry about, as was the case in 2014. The 34-year-old, a recent champion in Basel, is a stellar 60-10 for his 2015 campaign after beating Tomas Berdych 6-4, 6-2 on Sunday night. Federer won 12 of the last 16 games following a brief 2-0 first-set deficit.

Djokovic needed only one hour and five minutes–four minutes fewer than Federer–to roll over Kei Nishikori 6-1, 6-1 on Sunday afternoon. The top seed is now 79-5 for the season and 23-0 in his last 23 matches since falling to Federer in Cincinnati.
Djoker 1
“It was quite unusual [in 2013] to play each other so early in a tournament,” Federer said of their previous World Tour Finals round-robin contest. “This doesn’t feel now so crazy early because we’ve had the week of preparation; we’ve both had a match now. I think we both feel like we’re in the tournament.”

And they both will be regardless of Tuesday’s outcome. Djokovic, the three-time defending champion, is looking too good for anyone at the moment–even for Federer–but do not be surprised if this is not the last time these two see each other on opposite sides of the net in London.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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131 Comments on World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Federer

  1. This is going to be very interesting. Djokovic in 3 is the sensible pick. of course .

    I am going with Fed in 3 for this round robin match.

  2. Yes, this is a tough one. I just can’t see Novak beating Fed twice at this event. I am assuming that they will both come out of their group on top.

    As always, the easy pick is Novak in 3 sets. But I will also go with Fed in 3 for this one.

  3. This is a dress rehearsal for the final. The only thing which might play a factor is if Djokovic wants to add spice to the event by easing his foot off the pedal today before bringing down the hammer in the final.
    Federer in 3

    #Will he, wont he.

  4. I’m hoping for Fed in two, probably in 3. Kei made Novak looked very good; Kei was serving poorly, Novak just played everything better than Kei (imo Kei’s like a mini Novak except he comes with a more attacking mindset, both are versions of Davydenko, Novak being the improved version with incredible defensive skills add in; Kei the more aggressive version).

    I fell asleep during the Fed/Berdych match, watched some of it. Fed was playing well enough to beat Berdych in straights when Berdych was playing better than Kei did. If Fed uses all his guile and aggression and cut down on his errors, he can beat Novak.

  5. I still had the family here yesterday so didn’t see any of the matches live. Watched snatches of Federer and Berdy late last night and was surprised he lost so easily. Did he just fade or was it Federer upping his level?

  6. More than Federer’s serve, it will be his FH that will decide the outcome of the match.
    Fed needs his FH to be almost at its best to beat Novak ( esp given how slow the court looked yesterday).
    Djokovic’s ROS has been insane for the whole year. Don’t think Roger will get many free points on his serves. So FH becomes the key for him.
    So yeah, I will be really surprised if Fed manages to beat him tomorrow (even though him along with Stan are the only guys whom I give a shot at beating Nole here at the O2)

  7. I do not think Fed will beat Novak tomorrow…Unfortunately I am inclined to believe that Fed won’t even take a set from Novak…those who think Novak could end up playing lose and focus on the finals instead thus letting this one go are mistaken…Novak earns points and money and he is the fittest on tour…he is so high on confidence and will not want to lose any match here…it’s Fed who could do some calculation and decide not to go for broke as he is expected to play in the semis and needs to be rested for it…he is 34 remember?

    if they happen to meet in the finals then I expect a tougher Fed to show up…

    • Nats: I didn’t say he would ‘fake bad’. It was an idle ‘what if’ conjecture 🙂
      I agree with you. He will want to emphasise his dominance and make hay while the sunshines.

      • I’ll reword that: He’ll WANT to emphasise his dominance IF HE CAN.

        Wanting to and being able to not necessarily being the same thing 😉

    • Nole hasn’t beaten fed in straights on a hard court in three years. On the contrary, Fed beat Nole in straights twice this year alone.

      If Nole plays his best game on these slow courts, Fed doesn’t stand a chance, however I don’t think he will.

      Expect another US Open like classless crowd bias for Fed.

  8. @abhirf
    I meaant to say the other day I remember you mentioning earlier in the year that you had a lot going on so it’s nice to see you crop up again here. Been a topsy turvy season for Rafans this year but everybody is looking forward to the Fedal enounter. These days they are few and far between.

  9. Djokovic hasn’t beaten Fed in straight sets on a hard court in his last nine tries.

    Last time he did it was 2012 and that was 76 75.

    Fed has beaten Nole in straight sets in three of those nine meetings (twice this year).

    This one has Fed written all over it.

  10. Stan suffers from a sense of entitlement to beat Rafa because he is believing the propaganda so when he comes up against the real Rafa he can’t take it then he starts to sulk.

  11. Some great serving from Fed that 2nd game. But Nole applying the tourniquet. Fed’s serve has to be perfect or it comes back a winner for Nole.

  12. Federer’s serve has been saving him. Yep. That dropper went sideways, hawkey.
    Nole hitting a some otherworldly returns. And just solid on serve.

  13. That set point was an apt justification of the fact that Fed’s the best when it comes to attacking tennis. Always willing to take those half chances rather than playing the waiting game like others.

  14. To say Noles groundstrokes are a bit off would be an understatement.
    Nevertheless, good to see great serving and consistency on his groundstrokes by Roger

      • vamosrafa,

        If you are talking to me, then the answer is yes, I did pick Fed to win in 3 sets. But I didn’t know for a fact that he would win. So at that time there was still the possibility that Novak would go 3-0 undefeated. After all, I could have been wrong! 🙂

        I picked Novak to go undefeated earlier. But I just had a feeling that Fed might play well enough to beat him.

  15. GSM Fed …i could not watch..will do so and then comment. I am not suprised at the outcome but yes the second set’s scoreline is. Fed’s brand of tennis is superior in these conditions…

  16. Yes, I am also going to see the replay of this match. I missed the first set and most of the second set. I want to see how Fed did it. But I guess it’s true that Fed really likes these courts.

    I think it’s going to be much tighter now in their group. I thought Novak would come out on top.

  17. It looks like I didn’t give Fed enough credit picking him to win in 3 sets. To win the second set with that score is impressive.

  18. WOW!

    Way to go, Fed! Great win! Novak’s level dropping…he certainly is not invisible…I expected Novak to start losing but not this soon…Bravo Fed!

    @ hawkeye,

    great prediction!

    I do hope you are wrong about Rafa tomorrow… 🙂

  19. I think it’s disgusting that they seem to make excuses for the loser if they predicted him to win and he lost. Why can’t they just congratulate Federer instead of saying maybe Djokovic didn’t prepare well or something wasn’t right or he wasn’t fired up because he could still win the title even if he loses a match, blah, blah, blah!

  20. Djokovic is beatable! Congrats to Fed! I pick him to win, and he has to do it in straight sets, Novak would win when it goes three. So far, Fed won/wins against Novak in straight sets, those four wins from Shanghai last year to WTF this year.

  21. This is serious. Nole needs to beat Berdych and Fed needs to beat Kei for Nole to make the semis. Is that right? What if Federer loses to Kei? #confused.

    • I said Fed would win if he serves well. Sorry for you hawkeye #nolefam
      Djoko defeated by 34 year old Fed in straight sets! Proves Rafa is the greatest. Only he could beat Fed in his prime. As luckystar rightly said, djoko is #3 . He is another king of the weak era who started looking invincible after Fed started aging and Rafa’s body started declining.

      • Proves nothing except I know a lot about tennis.

        I predicted Fed to win as did the rest of the club. It was NID IMO.

        Rafa has a much worse record than Nole vs Fed indoors. Rafa’s sole win against Fed indoors was when Fed was getting over a bad back and getting used to a new racquet in one of Rafa’s very best year.

        Rafa lost indoors to a 34 year old fed last month because of mental anxiety just like I predicted.

        Same for Nole. He choked just like I predicted.

        Hope this helps!

        #YoureWelcome

  22. “You have those days when you’re not feeling your best,” Djokovic said. “I made a lot of unforced errors.”

    … as I predicted.

    Getting Tiggy with it….

    “How significant is this win? Unlike a normal victory, this one doesn’t knock the loser out of the tournament. Djokovic has some work to do when he faces Tomas Berdych two days from now, but would you really bet that he and Federer won’t be meeting again in the final on Sunday?”

    http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2015/11/express-delivery/56840/#.VkuwaoRqrZZ

  23. Now that I have watched the match, I can say that I thought they both played very well in that first set. One would have thought it would go to a TB. Novak made a few errors, but still had game point to hold serve and take it to a TB. But Fed was able to capitalize with a great volley that landed on Novak’s side of the court on the line. Fed was just that much better.

    The second was strange. Novak was broken by Fed in his first service game, but then came right back and broke Fed. It was even at 2-2 and one would have thought that this was going to be another tight set. But Novak seemed to lose his cool and composure. Fed kept it together and stayed sharp while Novak started making some unusual errors.

    Things fell apart quickly for Novak in the second set. The stats showed that it was close. But the one that stood out to me was Novak winning 50% of second serve points, while Fed won something like 68%. Novak is usually the won who wins more second serve points. Winner and UE’s weren’t that different. Fed did have more winners to UE’s in the match, while Novak had a few more UE’s than winners. But looking at the stats overall, there wasn’t much between them.

    Fed got it done when it counted and took advantage of his opportunities. I thought he did well going DTL with his forehand and taking that shot early. He played aggressive and smart. For Novak I just don’t think there are a lot of excuses for this loss. He played very well in the first set and somehow dissembled in that second set. A well deserved win for Fed!

  24. It’s Djokovic’s physical strength and mental strength which have propelled him to the top and are responsible for his impressive record this year. But mental strength does not preclude mental fatigue and there is no quick fix if this is what is happening. There have been signs the stress of maintaining his current level is taking its toll. As Nats has already pointed out, when the armour is pierced the mojo starts to evaporate – sometimes amazingly quickly.

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