World Tour Finals preview and pick: Nadal vs. Wawrinka

November 5, 2013 Ricky Match previews 123

Rafael Nadal is one win away from clinching the year-end world No. 1 ranking. Standing in his way on Wednesday in London is Stanislas Wawrinka.

Rafael Nadal and Stanislas Wawrinka will be going head-to-head for the 12th time in their careers when they collide on the second day of Group A competition at the World Tour Finals on Wednesday night.

Nadal has won all 11 of their previous encounters, including six on hard courts. In fact, the Spaniard is 24-0 in total sets against Wawrinka and only four have progressed to tiebreakers. They have faced each other three times this season, with Nadal cruising in Madrid (6-2, 6-4), at Roland Garros (6-2, 6-3, 6-1), and most recently in Shanghai (7-6(10), 6-1).

Wawrinka’s struggles in this matchup have continued even though this has been by far the best and most consistent year of his professional life. The Swiss is 50-21 and up to a career-high ranking of No. 8 in the world. His first appearance at the year-end championship got off to a strong start on Monday, when he held off Tomas Berdych 6-3, 6-7(0), 6-3 in two hours and 25 minutes.

Nadal kicked off his London campaign on Tuesday by avenging a Paris loss to David Ferrer. The world No. 1 had lost to his countryman 6-3, 7-5 last week, but he hammered Ferrer 6-3, 6-2 this time around. Nadal owns an incredible 10 titles in 2013, including four on hard courts, but he is still in search of his first since the U.S. Open. He lost in the Beijing final and in the semis of both Shanghai and Paris. However, Nadal has not lost to anyone outside the top five since Wimbledon.

An indoor setting, where Wawrinka has not faced Nadal since 2007, should help the underdog. Nonetheless, this particular court is likely playing too slow and ball are bouncing too high for Wawrinka to pull off what would be a borderline stunner. Nadal should be able to dictate baseline rallies and neutralize his opponent’s best shot by once again pounding heavy topspin at the Wawrinka one-handed backhand.

With a win, Nadal would clinch the year-end world No. 1 ranking. To say he will be determined would be an understatement.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 8 games or fewer

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123 Comments on World Tour Finals preview and pick: Nadal vs. Wawrinka

  3. Got the Champers on ice………..

    Got the Vamos Rafa pom-poms ready………….

    C’mon Rafa! Let’s do this………………

    Reply

  14. Rafa keeps hitting his FDTL long, so he’s playing it safe going cross court, but that’s making him vulnerable to Stan’s backhand.

    Reply

  15. Against Ferru, Rafa was broken serving for the match, here he’s broken serving for the set. Uncle T needs to do something about this…………..

    Reply

    • ^^heard complaint was about Nadal team encouragement, not coaching……..i.e. they were shouting “Vamos” too loudly each time Stan was about to receive….

      Reply

  28. RITB: The few times Rafa has tried a FDTL it’s been long, so I think he’s not feeling it today and is playing conservatively instead.

    Reply

  53. RT @NeilHarmanTimes: “One man’s year. Undoubtedly @RafaelNadal world No.1. Today’s match today fit for a coronation. He beats @stanwawrinka 76 76. Sublime tennis”

    RT @christophclarey: “Absent from Australian Open, 1st round loser at Wimbledon, #Nadal will be No. 1 when it matters most: at season’s end Beats Stan 7-6, 7-6”

    RT @ESPN Tennis: “Rafael Nadal, who did not play from July 2012 until Feb. 2013, has clinched the year-end No. 1 with today’s win over Wawrinka. #ESPNTennis”

    RT @Ringham7: “No one would have put more than a couple of pesos on Rafa ending up No 1 after starting in SAmerica after 7 months out. Phenomenal”

    RT @darren_cahill: “Vamos Rafa. Say hello to the 2013 Year End #1… Rafael Nadal. A superb performance.”

    Reply

  55. Vamos Rafa, no matter what! A good phrase for this entire year.

    I hope that he can win his semi and make it once more to the WTF final.

    Reply

  56. Rafa clinched the year end No.1 spot !!!!!!!!!!!!!

    VAMOS Rafa for all you’ve done
    to be hailed once again as the year-end world number one!

    Vamooooooooooooos the 2013 champion !!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Reply

  57. Vamos!!! Now we Rafans do deserve a two-day rest…

    Thank you Rafa for wining this in straights!

    Congrats to our Rafa and to all Rafans on the secured YE #1!!!

    Reply

  60. And major congrats to Wawrinka, who has increased his tie-breakers against Rafa from 4 in the first 11 encounters to 6 with this 12th encounter. May sound like a back-handed compliment, van Zwitserland, but I don’t mean it like that: Rafa is a very bad match-up for Stan and Stan is improving. Still true even if you take into considerations Rafa’s nerves today.

    Reply

    • You’re right. Stan deserves praise for keeping it so close. At times dangerously close.
      He has made huge strides this year and more than justified his place at the O2.

      Reply

    • Ed, I was thinking the same thing!! Im like who is still voting for Roger for these things, I mean……..are even the tennis players for real?!!!!

      Reply

  62. Do you remember two years ago, three years ago, when we said that Rafa had already accomplished so much that anything more would just be icing on the cake. And dreamed of maybe one more US Open (check), maybe one more AO (give it time), maybe some more RGs (check), maybe one more Wimbie (give it time), maybe get back to number 1 (check), were not dreaming of another YE#1 (check), increase the 1000s counts (check), have a positive H2H to all top-30 or whatever players with more than 2 matches played (check)…. I’m losing track, what else can we dream of? Playing healthy and doing alright in Rio?

    Reply

    • chloro..immediate target is the double career slam..win the AO and atleast 2 more FO and yeah hopefully touch No 17 :-)..Why not..let us hope for it. If he is healthy, def possible

      My wish list

      1 more AO
      2 more FO
      1 more Wimby

      Reply

      • Hahaha, you forgive Rafa now for putting you through the wringer, @Sanju? You see now why it was a good “strategy” to lose to Ferru in the semis in Paris? Now, when he meets and plays Djokovic he will be calmer and go for his shots. And if he meets him in the WTF finals and beats him, it sets the stage nicely for AO2014.

        It would have been terrible to come to WTF with another loss to Djokovic under his belt…………

        Reply

  63. Phew..God what a match..nail biting..tension filled

    Rafa was really tight and it could be seen.whatever he says No 1 does not matter..it did a big deal and he just hit the right shots at the crunch points. The surrender of breaks in 1st and 2nd, the surrender of leads in both tiebreaks shows he was super tight.

    Finally the YE No 1 in the bag for which wewere discussing like since past 5-6 weeks with all scenarios. It all seems worth it now 🙂

    Congrats Rafa and congrats all Rafans. Now I hope Rafa can really play freely as no tension..go for the title Rafa..it will be perfect finish to the glorious year 🙂

    Reply

  64. Rafa is happy.
    —Rafael Nadal on BBC Two: ”A lot of emotions today, it’s the perfect scenario to finally be the year-end number one. The match was really hard, Stan played really great.
    “He had chances at the end, I was a bit lucky but I’m happy to be through to the semi-finals in the last tournament of the year. After missing this tournament last year, it’s been an unbelievable comeback year.
    “Being number one at end of the season is something really difficult as there are some unbelievable competitors out there. But without my team behind me, it would be hard to think about achieving this, especially after what happened last year.
    “Stan is a player who is having the best season of his career, he’s playing great. To win against him is a big challenge, so I’m happy with the result.” —

    http://rafaelnadalfans.com/2013/11/06/rafael-nadal-its-the-perfect-scenario-to-finally-be-the-year-end-number-one/

    Reply

  65. VAMOS!!! VAMOS!!! VAMOS!!! VAMOS!!! VAMOS!!! VAMOS!!! VAMOS!!! VAMOS!!! VAMOS!!! VAMOS!!! VAMOS!!! VAMOS!!! VAMOS!!! VAMOS!!! VAMOS!!! VAMOS!!!

    RAFAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    #goat

    Reply

  66. This is the opinion of those who can SEE the obvious:

    RT @Ringham7: “The best aspect is that @RafaelNadal is a better all round player now – so dangerous on all surfaces, playing further up, going for more”

    Roger is the GOAT of the Stefan Edberg Congeniality Award. Rafa is the tennis GOAT.

    #FederraziInDenial

    Reply

      • Chloro, I agree, bcos I doubt these tennis players and fans in total are voting overwhelmingly for Roger year after year after year! I doubt it very much……………….its BS!!!

        Reply

  67. Nadal on Sky Sports: “I was defending too much in the 2nd set so I tried to hit harder to change things at the end”

    From mid 2nd set onwards he’s realized he had to stop being dominated by Stan and hence he’s started to use his FH more efficiently.

    Reply

  68. RT @TennisReporters: “Nadal says securing year end No. 1 ranking today was most important thing in match. Its been on his mind since winning US Open”

    We have been frazzling like there was no tomorrow about this YE#1. Noe Rafa admits he has been thinking about it since USO2013. Now that the goal is accomplished, I sure hope Rafa plays freely and enjoys himself out there.

    Vamos!!

    Reply

    • I knew all along, that it WAS important to him, no matter, what he may have said. Big congrats, Rafa!!! And congrats too all rafafans, who can fnally put the calculators away!
      The match itself was not great, but he achieved his goal at the end of his least favorite part of the season, with Nole rolling along. That is quite something.
      He should be light as a feather now for the rest of his matches.

      Reply

    • Sanju: Sorry, I had to leave and go do errands right after the match so I’m late getting back to you. I enjoyed listening to Paul’s critiques of both Stan’s and Rafa’s performance as the match unfolded. He was analyzing it as a coach would, stating what each player needed to do to beat the other. More of his critiques were aimed at Stan and what he needed to do to beat Rafa. Many times, he repeated that Stan needed to serve shorter and out wide to Rafa’s backhand in the deuce court to draw Rafa off the court, then come in for a volley into the open court…or if the return was deep, hit a forehand dtl to the open court. Obviously, that’s what everyone should do….executing the short, wide serve is another thing. I thought he was very accurate with all of his comments about Rafa and Stan during the match and very fair with his analysis.

      Reply

    • Sanju,

      So far I have only watched the first set of my recording of the match. Annacone said that you have to do a lot to beat one of the greatest players of all time. He had a lot of technical info about shots and style of play and serving, etc. But he talked with a great deal of respect about Rafa. Being Fed’s coach would not mean that he might think less of Rafa. In fact, I believe watching Rafa get the better of Fed would instill a great deal of respect for Rafa.

      Annacone showed his respect for Rafa with his commentary.

      Reply

  70. A few point of interests: Will Novak fight for the title, now, that his chance for No1 is gone for good, or will he hold back for DC? For that matter, will Rafa fight for that elusive first WTF championship, or is he emotionally spent after his fairy tale year? Will Berdych save himself for DC as well? We might be able to answer that one tonight. Rafa will be first of his group, but in group B nothing is decided, yet. There’s the real possibility, that Rafa’s and Novak’s paths cross as early as in the semis.
    So, the tourney will continue to interest, but I’m very much laid back right now. I will watch without frazzling. I wanted that NO1 spot for Rafa as icing of his seasonal cake, and, because it would have looked downright silly, if Nole had overtaken him right before the finish line.

    Reply

    • I expect Rafa to go for it full throttle now..The pressure is off his shoulders..he will fight to win his 1st without presssure..He has already faced the maximum pressure any of the Top 8 would have felt as Rafa had a huge milestone to accomplish today, so he will do fine now.

      Novak I believe will continue to fight as he wants the point difference between him and Rafa to be as less as possible.

      Rafa will retain No 1 atleast till Feb end..that is good 15 weeks added taking him to 120 weeks plus;-)

      Reply

    • @littlefoot:
      1. I think Novak will do anything to take the spotlight from Rafa so yes, he will fight for the WTF title to upstage Rafa and also send a message to Rafa…….
      2. Rafa will fight for the WTF title. As I said before, it has been his second goal after USO2013. Rafa’s off to Stamford Bridge tonight for Chelsea’s CL clash, our boy’s already loosening up…..
      3. Berdy already has a DC title, he does not have a WTF title yet, he will go for it.

      RT @NeliHarmanTimes: “To Stamford Bridge, says @RafaelNadal as he beats his retreat from the O2”

      Reply

  74. Lots of ongoing pressure on Novak as he has many points to defend in Jan and the first half of Feb while Rafa has none. If Rafa does well at the AO (knee permitting as always) then he will be quite far ahead in ATP points. Playing claycourt again in South America should allow him to defend quite a few points from the second half of February / early March. If Rafa’s knee does not hold him back he might not defend all his points through RG but probably very many. Then there are virtually no points to defend on grass, only points to gain. So the pressure is on Novak to do whatever he can to bridge the gap now, in the winter and the spring and the summer.

    Reply

  75. I thought that this match would be a very tough two sets. I voted for two sets with Rafa losing more than eight game. I didn’t want to say anything here, so I kept my thoughts to myself. But I wasn’t surprised to see the score line today. Stan’s game is well suited to his court and I believe he let Djoker get the easy win in Paris because he was looking ahead to London.

    It was disconcerting to see Rafa fail to serve out the first set. Then the very tight tb. I still have to go back and watch the second set. But I did wake up early this morning just in time to see the second set tb. When Stan had set point, I couldn’t even breathe! He almost did it this time. But Rafa came up with the great shots when it mattered.

    I am not surprised to hear Rafa talk about what it means to be year end #1. I think he was definitely tight in this match. The pressure must have been enormous. Now that he has done it, I hope he can play more freely to have a chance to win here.

    The difference is Rafa’s will to win. Even when he’s not playing his best he somehow finds a way. I can see Stan possibly finishing second if he can beat Ferrer. After seeing how they look, I think he’s got a shot. Ferrer will have to play much better than he did against Rafa.

    I am late to the celebration, but it’s great to be here now that Rafa has finally done it! YAY! No more math, no more calculations! Rafa did it! 🙂

    I am so happy for him!

    I still think Djoker will go all out to win. That’s all he has left since the year end #1 is gone. He will want to stay close to Rafa.

    Reply

  77. No way Djokovic will not strain every nerve and sinew to defend his title at O2. Even though YE No.1 and World No.1 spots have been taken by Rafa, his pride alone will drive him to perform at his best not to mention the desire to keep the gap in points as small as possible. As far as DC goes, without Troicki the weight will rest on his shoulders, particularly as Tipsy’s form is questionable, but don’t forget the lynch pins of the Czeck team are also at the WTF so both teams will start with an even handicap.

    Reply

    • Meant to add there is no question in my mind Nole might be contemplating saving himself for DC by compromising his chances at the O2.

      Reply

  78. Vamos Rafa!!!

    I’ve been busy at work and didn’t have time to check scores. I watched the 2nd tie-breaker on Tennis Channel after I got home. I agree Rafa looked tight. I was so nervous after Wawrinkle got the set point and just elated when Rafa won. That boy has the heart of steel. Now, Rafa, go out there and play free!

    Reply

    • JCKNY,

      I wanted to ask what you thought of the tennis channel commentators. They had Jimmy Arias and Brett Haber, I think and then Paul Annacone joined them today. They were talking all the time, constantly, every single minute. It drove me crazy! There is a such thing as over analyzing a match. Every tiny little thing they had to blather on about.

      But when Wawa started complaining about something to Rafa and the umpire, these three guys were so busy with their own discussion that they didn’t even know what was going on. Apparently, Wawa was complaining about Rafa’s camp cheering so loudly or hearing Uncle Toni. The camera pulled back and you could see that Rafa’s camp was on Wawa’s side of the court. So something was going on that made him very upset. Then Rafa paused before serving and must have heard what Wawa was saying, because he then held up his hand in some kind of apology.

      The commentators were in the tennis channel’s new L.A. headquarters. I think there is a disadvantage when they are not on site. If they were there, then they would have heard what was going on that upset Wawa so much.

      Reply

  79. NNY7: I commented on Arias and Haber during Rafa and David’s match. They just never stop talking. I’m wondering if being removed from the action and sitting in a studio 5,500 miles away contributes to that. I was also annoyed that they didn’t know what was going on with the complaint issue. You’d think that the Tennis Channel could at least have someone on site to relay first hand observations unless there’s some contractual thing going on with SkySports having exclusive rights or something. Although I watched it on the Tennis Channel, I also had the match going on my laptop at the end so that I could see the interviews. Tennis Channel showed nothing post-match, as you know.

    As for Stan’s complaint, I read on another website from someone who was there that during the changeover, Rafa actually went over to his box and had a few “stern words” and then again apologized to Stan. Starting on Thursday, ESPN2 will be carrying the evening match (noon for you and me here on the west coast USA) and hopefully they’ll actually be there.

    Reply

    • Jpacnw,

      Thanks for your response. Yes, they were chatting it up during Rafa’s match with Ferrer, too. Usually the tennis channel has decent commentators.

      Sometimes people get on Robbie Koenig, but at least he knows when to shut up. The British commentators that I hear often on the tennis channel are so much better. There is something with the American commentators in that they just cannot shut up for a minute!

      One would think that they could send their people to the actual venue. But as you said, maybe there is some issue with exclusive rights. They have done this before, with the Davis Cup matches and some other tournaments.

      With the addition of Paul Annacone, then it was the three of them critiquing every single shot and saying what each player did wrong or whatever and blah, blah, blah. I wanted to tell them – why don’t you go out on the court and see if you can do any better!

      Thanks for the info about Rafa going over to his box to give them some words and then apologizing to Stan. After Rafa won and everyone in his box was standing up and applauding happily, I saw Uncle Toni not smiling at all. Maybe Rafa hurt his feelings with his little scolding? 🙂

      Reply

      • Oh, I just caught that the matches will be carried on ESPN2. Thanks for the heads up! Yes, we will be able to see it a decent hour.

        I really want to see Djoker and Delpo!

        Reply

      • The trouble is when Koenig shuts up there is still his stooge Mr.Knowitall to fill the silence describing the feet position, the grip, the angle of the racquet head and why the ball landed in or out. 🙁

        Reply

  80. Sounds like your Tennis Channel guys belong to the school of commentators who think more than 10 secs of silence from them will get them fired! Inane banter, feeble attempts at jokes, forced laughter, pseudo mateyness, reminiscences about the time they once played (insert name of a top player) and lost etc. etc. all the while treating us to the minutiae of their coaching advice and over analysing what we can see with our own eyes. One is forced to hit the mute button at times which of course kills the atmosphere as well.

    #EdOnHerSoapBox

    Reply

    • ed,

      I love you on your soapbox! You are also spot on in your observations! It’s as though you were listening to it with me on the tennis channel today. You have it down!

      I did actually hit the mute button at times because I just wanted to scream! But that really doesn’t enhance the enjoyment of watching. Just really dreadful stuff from those guys.

      Reply

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