World Tour Finals preview and pick: Nadal vs. Ferrer

Rafael Nadal will get a shot at revenge on David Ferrer when the two Spaniards clash on Tuesday in London. Both players are looking to get off to a 1-0 start at the year-end championship.

Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer will be doing battle for the 26th time in their careers and for the second time in four days when they collide in round-robin action at the World Tour Finals on Tuesday afternoon.

Ferrer will hardly concern himself with the fact that he still trails the head-to-head series 20-5 and has lost nine of the last 10 and 16 of the last 18. He is 4-3 against his higher-ranked countryman on hard courts and he just prevailed 6-3, 7-5 in the Paris semifinals on Saturday.

“We know each other very well,” Nadal said after his surprising loss. “I know what things he is doing well. When he’s playing well, he’s very dangerous on all the surfaces, but especially on this one because it’s probably the worst surface for me.”

The world No. 1 has actually enjoyed his best-ever season on hard courts, but his form during the fall-swing has dropped off. After capturing hard-court titles in Indian Wells, Montreal, Cincinnati, and at the U.S. Open, Nadal failed to win Beijing, Shanghai, and Paris. Of course, none of Nadal’s setbacks in these past two months has come against anyone outside the top five.

Just when it looked like Ferrer may be showing signs of dropping out of the sport’s elite group, he defended almost all of his 2012 Paris title points to keep himself in the top  three of the world. A post-Wimbledon slump is clearly a thing of the past now that the 31-year-old Spaniard has reached finals in each of his last three tournaments (runner-up in Stockholm, Valencia, and Paris). Ferrer is 60-21 for the season, which includes nine finals (Roland Garros among them) and two titles (Auckland and Buenos Aires).

Playing tournament after tournament never seems to faze Ferrer, who is one of the fittest players on tour. At the same time, though, competing for six consecutive weeks and advancing at least two rounds in all of them is not ideal heading into London, where he has advanced out of group play once in three appearances (lost in the 2011 semifinals). Everyone–Nadal included–must be feeling some wear and tear at this point on the calendar, but the top seed may benefit from having exited Paris on Saturday rather than Sunday.

It’s more than obvious that Ferrer can be competitive in this matchup on this surface, but beating Nadal twice in the last four days after previously beating him twice in the last five year is simply too much to ask.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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150 Comments on World Tour Finals preview and pick: Nadal vs. Ferrer

  1. Definitely a bridge too far for Ferru to win this but if Rafa is slow out of the blocks it might go to three sets.

    I read the O2 is not particularly fast this year. If this is the case it’s good news for Rafa.

    • Agree. In straights is what he needs. I was just erring on the side of caution after the shock of Paris. If truth be told I expect him to smother Ferru today.

  2. RT @AndrewCastle63: “#Nadal v #Ferrer from the #O2 at 2pm on @bbc2 Can anyone tell me of a more charismatic or iconic sportsman than #Rafa?”

    Ehh, no……….not me at least.

  3. Thanks for the tip-off. I didn’t realise it was going out on BBC2. I was watching the ATP lifestream yesterday with you know who commentating.

    What a welcome change to listen to Andrew Castle and Tim Henman.

    • It looks as though the BBC are only transmitting the afternoon session. Sky have the evening match. I dont have SKY so back to the deadly duo.

  4. Rafa needs to flatten his shots, looping them too much right now…..and get a first serve in…..drat, Ferru breaks back….

  5. Rafa is losing this if he keeps playing this badly. Level hasn’t improved since paris, returns are ridiculously short. Looks devoid of confidence

  6. RT @juanjo_sports: “If there is a sure thing in this world, it’s that Rafael Nadal is collecting his 2 wins to clinch YE #1. #BookIt”

    I wish I had your confidence, Juan Jose, I am so nervous now the finish line is in sight……………

    • Juan Jose concurs with you, @natashao2013….

      RT @juanjo_sports: “The other reality of today is that it wouldn’t be wise for Ferrer to invest so much energy here, when there are 2 winnable matches ahead.”

  7. in persian we say “bah bah” it means good good 😀
    rafa’s on fire and I am enjoying, I was at at university and have just arrived home 🙂

  8. Vamos..yuppieeeeee

    Clinical victory

    The fact that he won so easily with very few games lost too bodes well to reach semis

    The FH DTL banana in 1st set to set up set point and the massive FH DTL again in 2nd in last game were monstrous

  9. Vamos Rafa! GSM…..1 match away.

    Rafa hardly got out of 4th gear, only got 54% of first serves in……….plenty of room for improvement. Rafa hardly expended any energy……..

    #ParisLossWasStrategic
    #chr18wouldbeproud

  10. Rafa is one win away from clinching the year end No.1 spot!

    Rafa will remain No.1 after the WTF. He is 1620 points ahead of Djoko, who can’t win at the WTF more than 1500 points.
    But, Rafa needs additional points to cover 225 points Djoko can earn in the Davis Cup final next week.

  11. 110 points is all what is needed 🙂

    Rafa hit just 9 winners? and made 20 UE? Looked like he made lot more winners and hit far less UE

  12. RT @NeilHarmanTimes: “GSM Nadal 63 62. One more win and he guarantees the @ATPWorldTour No.1 end-of-year ranking. I thought he didn’e like indoor tennis.”

    Hahaha!

  13. This win of Rafa will put Djoko in pressure today no doubt about it. Time for Fed to pounce on him. Cmon Fed beat Djoo and let Rafa seal the No 1 today itself

  14. Oh I feel so much better! I did not see the match but seems like he came out to play!!! Vamos, Rafa!!! YE#1 is in your grasp!!!

  15. Frankly, I doubt if anyone can tell a slow court from a fast court. They are always contradicting themselves. Ask any 10 tennis pros about the speed of the courts and you get very different answers. I do believe Rafa on this, though.

    • Agreed. When has Rafa ever exaggerated anything to make himself look better or others worse. Never. I only hear him exaggerate things a little in the spirit of humility and respect for the public, the organizers and the other players past and present.

    • I’m always surprised, that players can never agree on court speed. BTW, Rafa likes fast courts just fine. It’s the low bounces, which don’t agree with him.

      • I think the baall bounces were high.

        Rafa used good strategy to serve to Ferrers body and hitting that loooping FH exploiting Ferrers height to avoid him from crushing his FH

      • Sanju, I was making a general remark about Raf’s preferences. The ball bounce is indeed not that low in London.
        So, is the court really any different from the last few years? I thought, they make it pretty much the same each year.

    • nadline..did Rafa say it is slow?

      It did look to me when watching similar to USO speed to be honest..not super fast like Montreal this year ..not very slow like IW

      Ferrer was slow..hope you are not comparing Ferers speed today with court speed tday Ricky? 🙂

    • monalysa, it’s a law of physics, thayt every court, Rafa wins on, is slow as molasses. Nothing, you can do about it. Which means, that all hard courts have slowed down again this year, lol! So much so, that you don’t even need slo mo for instant replay any more…

  16. Adeline Auger ‏@adel1609 41m #Nadal on Ferrer: “He played with less intensity than in Paris. I had fewer mistakes”. Said the slower court also helps.

  17. Rafa in SKYSports is acknowledging that David today must have been tired as he could see he was playing with less intensity.
    Rafa in the Spanish TV says that his plan was to play more aggressive, but after the 1st few games he’s noticed that David wasn’t feeling…comfortable and he’s decided to change his tactics: minimize his errors & wait for David’s errors. If the match had been more demanding, he was willing to play more aggressive, but he didn’t want to turn this match into a ping-pong match with low balls as in Paris.

  18. Day match is OK by me as I am in Dubai atm and the night match is at midnight Dubai time. I am going to stay up tonight to watch Fed/Nole, though.

  19. About the speed of the courts in Paris and London.

    ¤ According to Guy Forget (the Paris Masters director), the playing conditions – the surface and the balls – in Paris and London are IDENTICAL.
    ¤ According to Rafa, the surface in Paris was NOT very slow, NOT very fast’.

    Read more below in Reply & Reply

  20. Guy Forget: —Identical playing conditions.
    As was already the case last year, the playing conditions – namely the balls and the surface – will be identical to those at the ATP World Tour Finals de London and should therefore suit all players. With the end-of-season “Masters” being so close, there was no way that we could make conditions any quicker, though it’s something that we will be thinking about in the future since there will be a week’s break between the BNP Paribas Masters and London in 2014.—
    http://www.fft.fr/en/bnp-paribas-masters-official-website/news/guy-forget-were-going-be-treated-some-top-quality-matches

  21. augusta, that’s interesting stuff, but I guess, the players notice subtle differences, which just might the result of having to lay out and prepare the courts newly each year. Even, if they use the same material, the handiwork might produce slightly different results.

  22. I am so happy to see that Rafa got back on track and won easily against Ferrer. I happened to wake up early and turned on the tv to see what was going on. At that point, Rafa had won the first set 6-3, so I went back to sleep with good feelings.

    I think that Rafa’s comments about Ferrer being tired and then changing his strategy in the match, were quite interesting. Maybe Ferrer is hitting a wall after playing so much.

    I will be able to see the replay of Rafa’s match later on. His next match is going to be on at 6:00 am my time, so I probably won’t see that one either.

    I am hoping that he can close it out against Wawa and clinch the year end #1!

    • Watching the match I got the feeling Ferrer was a bit jaded rather than physically tired – after all he doesn’t do tired does he ? Both he and Delpo both had to scramble to get to London so had no down time at all before playing their first matches. Tough call.

  23. If I am able to sell this ticket, then yes ! might go to rafa-wawa if I get this one sold in the morning haha…otherwise, I will go to ferrer berdych 🙁

  24. vamosrafa,

    I really hope that you can see your ticket, so that you can get another one and see Rafa.

    This scheduling is really mind boggling.

  25. It may as well be that Rafa asked to be in the afternoon…I know that yesterday he preferred afternoon since Real Madrid was playing the Champions League at 9pm. Tonight I think Barcelona is on, so maybe he just prefers watching some football…. 🙂

    I am really sorry for vamosrafa…the same thing happened to me with Miami in 2009 I think…I bought tickets for finals hoping to see Rafa play and ended up watching Nole vs. Andy…

    I know it a bummer but if you don’t sell the tickets just sit back and enjoy Ferrer -Berdych match…it must be an interesting one as well, since they both will fight for the spot in the semis…

  26. Sour grapes much, Stan?

    RT @TennisReporters: “Wawrinka ‘before every point Toni was trying to coach Rafa. Nothing against Rafa or Toni, that’s rules, umpire should have done something’

    Pity your coach does not coach you about the racquet abuse rules, Stan. Now STFU and prepare for Ferru…………

  27. I watched this match on the Tennis Channel and the commentators were actually sitting in the studio in Los Angeles, so when Rafa apologized across the court to Stan, none of them even knew what it was for. Did any of the commentators who were actually there see obvious coaching from Toni and did they comment on it?

    • During the match, Stan did have a conversation with Bernades about “too much noise from Team Rafa”. I actually heard Stan say, “Vamos all the time, is that normal?” And the commies said Stan was complaining Uncle T was encouraging Rafa on every point when Stan was receiving. Now, in the presser, he is saying Toni was coaching, so, which is which? Was Toni encouraging Rafa with Vamos or was he coaching, this is what I want to know from Stan.

      • Well, if it turns out that all Toni was saying was “Vamos,” unless he was adding some sort of silent secret spy Mallorcan code to the word, then I don’t see the problem unless Toni was saying it during the point. But then that wouldn’t be coaching, that would be interference. Hard to know what to think since I couldn’t detect it from what I was seeing and the announcers were also in the dark since they were watching it on monitors/TV’s just like I was.

  28. I think by coaching, Stan included cheering which, to be fair, encouragement is an important element.

    But so what. Coaches should be allowed to yell Vamos. Swiss are a touchy lot.

  29. I just read an account of the incident by someone who was actually there and she said it did appear that Toni was yelling more than just Vamos, but that she was too far away to make out what he was saying. After Stan complained and then at the changeover, she said that Rafa went over to his box and “had some stern words” to say and then went over to Stan and apologized (this was after the initial apology from across the net). I myself noticed that after that, the camera would occasionally show Toni and he was silent and unanimated. So whatever Rafa said to him did the trick.

  30. @pseudodofed: I need to file a complaint. Yesterday, when I I played Novak, I think I heard someone from his box cheering for him #seriousoffence

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