World Tour Finals preview and pick: Nadal vs. Berdych

Rafael Nadal has locked up the year-end world No. 1 ranking and a berth in the London semifinals. He still has one more round-robin match on his plate, though, on Friday against Tomas Berdych.

Rafael Nadal has already accomplished what he initially set out to do at the World Tour Finals: clinch the year-end world No. 1 ranking and book a spot in the semifinals. Now he can set his sights on an 11th title in 2013.

After beating David Ferrer 6-3, 6-2 on Tuesday, Nadal took a pair of tiebreakers from Stanislas Wawrinka one day later. The win over Wawrinka assured Nadal of a year-end top spot for the third time in his career while also sending him through to the last four in London. Only the Spaniard’s group seeding and semifinal matchup can be impacted by Friday’s showdown against Tomas Berdych.

This will be the 20th career meeting between Nadal and Berdych, including the fifth this season. Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 6-3, including 9-3 on hard courts. The world No. 1 has defeated Berdych 15 times in a row and nine consecutive times on the hard stuff. Nadal has won 12 straight sets against the Czech dating back to the 2012 Australian Open.

Berdych is 1-1 this week with a loss to Wawrinka on Monday and a 6-4, 6-4 elimination of David Ferrer on Wednesday. The world No. 6 is an outstanding 53-23 for his 2013 campaign, although he is still in search of his first title.

“I probably cannot have any tougher opponent than I have,” Berdych said of Nadal. “But he’s already through (to the semis). He’s secure for No. 1. You never know. I know Rafa is a big fighter and he will never give a single point for free. So I’m not expecting any gifts.”

There is a decent chance that Berdych, too, will have already secured a spot in the semis by the time this match takes place. That will happen if Ferrer defeats Wawrinka–regardless of the score–in the afternoon match.

All things being equal, with both players giving 100 percent, it’s hard to expect success for Berdych. The court is playing unusually slow and it’s clear that Berdych needs a lightning-fast surface in order to have a realistic chance of upsetting Nadal.

Pick: Nadal in 2 with at least one tiebreaker

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72 Comments on World Tour Finals preview and pick: Nadal vs. Berdych

    • normally on an indoor hard court against Berdych with very little at stake for Nadal, I would say yes.

      BUT…the courts is playing very slow and Berdych’s recent head-to-head vs. Nadal is worse than dismal.

      I do not see Berdych having a chance.

      thoughts from others?

  1. I realize that he has taken the last 15 straight from Berdych including 9 on hard court with 12 straight sets. I really don’t see him having a chance here either. I do know that Rafa cut his finger yesterday but, I don’t think that it’s anything serious and he’s really been playing “lights out” on hard court lately. Thanks for input Ricky!. Anyone disagree with us?.

    • well Nadal hasn’t been “lights out” since the US Open, but he has been solid. And he hasn’t lost to anyone ranked lower than Berdych since Wimbledon.

      i almost forgot about the finger thing…. LOL.

  2. It’s true that Rafa hasn’t been at his best in the fall hard court season. But I do think he is very motivated to get his first win here. I would expect him to get even better in the semis. This is the last tournament and this is the time to give it everything he’s got.

    I don’t see Rafa letting up. He will want to keep winning. I do think he will have to play better if he wants to beat Djoker.

    • as for the Berdych match, keep in mind that Berdych’s fate may also be determined by the time this one starts.

      so it could be meaningless for both (aside from semifinal seeding)

  3. I agree.Solid is definitely better analyzed. The only thing that scares me here is like you said “Very little at stake for Nadal”!. Hopefully the bread is already sliced today too! LOL

    • the thing about Nadal (like Ferrer) is that it doesn’t matter what–if anything–is at stake.

      the guy fights for every point like his life depends on it.

  4. I do so hope he doesn’t have to fight too hard. Berdych is particularly adept at pulling his opponents from side to side. Rafa could do without too much extra mileage on those tyres of his.

  5. Rafa wants to avoid playing Nole in the semis…he also wants more points so that the difference between him and Nole becomes bigger…Rafa will go for the win here no matter what…

    Vamos Rafa!

  6. Frankly, I don’t care if Berdy gets his first win over Rafa today in a long while, as long as Rafa wins a set, he finishes top of the Group and avoids Djoker at the semi stage. In fact, it is not in Rafa’s interest to wear himself out in this match. He just needs a set to ensure finishing top and the “bonus” of playing either Fed or Delpo and not Novak. He needs to aim to play Novak in his last match of the season, the WTF final!

    Vamos!!!

    • Agreed! A set will be fine, though, if he gets the first one, he might take the second as well and avoid a three setter.
      At the ATP site, they played through all the permutations of qualifying and came up with the statement, that, even if Berdych wins only in three, he will be first. I believe, this is wrong, since Rafa still would have the better ratio of won/lost sets, but does anyone know, if there is a rule that, if there are two players with the same number of won and lost matches, the direct show down counts more than won/lost sets?

      • And Wawa would be out there, too, with two wins and one loss, and he won the direct show down against Berdych… On second thought, I want Rafa to win or they might need ages to figure out the final ranking in Group A.
        #damnrulebook

      • The ATP permutations can’t be right……If Berdy wins in 3 it means he will have dropped a set, plus the 2 sets he dropped against Stan = 3 sets lost. Rafa, otoh, would have dropped 2 sets in the Group total, so Rafa would have a better win-loss ratio in terms of sets and would go top.

        Anyhoo, we know the ATP can’t count, so it’s better for Rafa to just win……………

      • Yeah, Rafa, just win and Wawa will be your best friend again. And let him deal with the Djoker in the semis. Keep it simple!

  7. I absolutely want Rafa to beat Berdy. I don’t like the idea of giving up a win to any player. Berdy doesn’t have much belief when he plays Rafa. I don’t want Rafa to lose that edge.

    I still say that Rafa will go out there to win.

  8. Great applause as Rafa enters the arena…and he does have extra bandaging on his left index finger, the one he cut slicing bread.

    • But the commies, esp. my compatriot B. Becker go on my nerves already, droning on about time and coaching violations and the need of a shot clock. Sometimes I wish, they’d introduce one, because it would show, that Rafa is only one of many slow players. And we still don’t even know, if Toni was coaching or just vamossing too loud. Bernardes didn’t think, he should intervene….

  9. RT @SteveTignor: “Thought Berd had a shot today, but Nadal wins 1st set 6-4. Wins his group and will play either Federer or Delpo in semis. #atp”

  10. Maybe, Rafa hasn’t made up his mind, yet, who could trouble the Djoker more in the semis: Wawa or Berdych.
    Is it, btw certain, that Djoker will finish first in his group?

    • ^^me too, @nadline. I will be rooting for Fed tomorrow, just for the pleasure of seeing Rafa strip him of whatever dignity he’s got left………….

  11. Now, Wawa needs to repay Rafa by playing Novak into the ground in the semis……not beat him, mind, just soften him up for Rafa to apply the coup de grace…..

  12. I watched the match on ESPN2 but I also had it going on my laptop on Skysports. Rafa said in the post match interview that Stan came to his locker room before the match and asked him to win. hahahah

  13. RT @stanwawrinka: “#Nadal on Wawrinka: “He’s a good friend. Before the match he came to my locker and wished me good luck. Said I would try my best”

  14. I think Delpo and Fed will leave it all out on the court tomorrow. It could go either way. Rafa is going to have to play well no matter who wins.

    I hope that Stan can take it to Djoker.

  15. Rafa improved his season match record to 74-6, including 35-3 on hard courts. He is the first active player to win at least 35 matches on clay (39) and hard courts in the same season. He also advanced to the semi-finals for the 16th time in 17 tournaments. He is an ATP World Tour-best 23-4 vs. Top 10 opponents this year. [Source: rafaelnadalfans]

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