World Tour Finals preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Federer

Djokovic warming up for his match

Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer will kick off their London campaigns on Tuesday. Djokovic beat Federer in last year’s title match.

Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer will be squaring off for the 31st time in their careers and for the second time in the last four days when they meet during Group B competition at the World Tour Finals on Tuesday night.

Federer leads the head-to-head series 16-14, including 12-11 on hard courts. Djokovic, though, has won five of their last seven encounters dating back to the 2011 U.S. Open and eight of their last 11 dating back to the start of that season. This is a rematch of last year’s World Tour Finals championship, which Djokovic won 7-6(6), 7-5. They also faced each other just last Saturday in the Paris semifinals, with the Serb recovering from a set deficit for a 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 victory.

Djokovic went on to capture the Paris title, his third triumph in as many events since the U.S. Open. The world No. 2’s record during this fall swing is a perfect 17-0, having also lifted trophies in Beijing and Shanghai.

While his 2013 campaign has been much different from that of Djokovic, Federer is also playing his best tennis of the season this fall. The 32-year-old Swiss lost a tough three-setter to Gael Monfils in the Shanghai third round, but he finished runner-up to an on-fire Juan Martin Del Potro in Basel before reaching the semis in Paris.

“I have had a good couple of weeks now,” Federer assured after his loss on Saturday. “Maybe the extra day I will get over Novak (for losing in the Paris semis instead of reaching final) could be an advantage. But I doubt it. He didn’t play Basel.

Federer’s extra day certainly won’t hurt, but he’s also correct in assuming that a long week in Paris won’t affect Djokovic. The defending London champion has played only three of the last seven weeks. By comparison, David Ferrer–also one of the fittest players on tour–had already played five in a row before reaching the Paris title match. If anything, in this kind of form Djokovic will be eager to play more and more matches to stay on top of his game and maintain the hot streak.

Even though Federer has improved greatly since this summer, Djokovic’s defense will once again force the 17-time Grand Slam champion to hit too many balls. Federer’s necessary net-charging tactics worked for a while in Paris, but Djokovic quickly figured out how to solve the puzzle. The No. 2 seed should be able to do it again.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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48 Comments on World Tour Finals preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Federer

  1. – “Maybe the extra day I will get over Novak could be an advantage. But I doubt it.
    He didn’t play Basel.“

    Ah, huh. The built in caveat just in case he loses.

  2. If Nole is mentally strong, Fed cannot win this match. He also cannot win in three sets.

    Pro-Fed crowd will get to Nole and Fed will use the extra day of rest to beat him and seal No. 1 for RafaGOAT.

    Rog in two close sets is the pick. 7-5, 6-4.

    • So you think, goats should stick together and help each other? Fed might try alright, but I doubt he’ll make it. But the other Swiss might help the Spanish goat tomorrow to seal the No 1 deal. And we can finally retire the calculators.

  3. Roger is between a rock and a hard place. He won’t want Rafa to clinch the #1, on the other hand he won’t want Nole to still be in the running either so I think he’ll just back himself to get as many points as possible.

  4. The start of the match suggests Roger may not cause the upset tody. He had to get to a quickfire start and hasn’t. Novak looks ready to play. If Roger does not win the 1st set, there is no chance.

    • I had to laugh when Federer asked Cedric whether Hawkeye was working yet.
      He who hated it and complained bitterly about its use.

  5. I want Djokovic to win this so that he wins his Group and Fed comes second. This way Rafa can avoid Djoko at the semis stage if he wins his Group………….

  6. rib, that would be a good scenario. It would give Rafa a well-deserved break on the last indoor tournament after a long year, a break that might help to maybe win this thing this time. How would you rate his chances if he meets Novak in the final?

    • Watching Novak now, he still is playing sublime HC tennis. However, he is looking a little jaded, making some uncharacteristic errors. I just get the feeling Rafa wants to finish the season with a flourish. Not only does he want YE#1, he also wants to snag his first WTF. If he gets to the final, I rate his chances very, very highly indeed…………

  7. If Novak wins the decider, probably will, he should still be in good shape to end up top of his group, no? Also depends on how well Roger plays the other RRs, again assuming Novak wins this. If Roger wins the old lion will rear his head more.

  8. This has been some ugly stuff from Fed. So many blown opportunities. But Djoker had a ragged patch in the middle of the second set. His serve went off, had a few double faults and just seemed out of sorts.

    I don’t think Djoker is unbeatable by any means. It’s just that Fed is simply not up to it anymore.

  9. I think both of them together may have piled up 80 plus errors..43 were in 2nd set itself

    That very narrowly missed forehand in 1st set at BP cost Fed very dear

    Djoko is also leaking errors..he is showing signs of fatigue

  10. Things going according to plan so far:
    – Rafa is on course to winning his Group;
    – Novak is on course to winning his Group, thus avoiding Rafa in the semis;
    – Fed can still finish off #2 in his Group, playing Rafa in the semis, extending that humiliating H2H.

  11. That H2H does not count because Rafa is using high spin balls to Roger’s left shoulder, like ALWAYS, and they meet on the non-traditional ugly surface of clay, like, ALWAYS.

  12. I have a feeling this is going to be another of those years when the WTF turns into the March of the Walking Wounded – the winner being The Last Man Standing. I’m not complaining as long as that’s Rafa.

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