Season in review: Really the only thing wrong with Federer’s 2015 campaign has been the existence of Novak Djokovic. If not for the world No. 1, Federer may have triumphed at both Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. Instead, the Swiss went without a major title for a third consecutive year (he last triumphed at Wimbledon in 2012). Still, it is impossible to be unimpressed by what Federer has done at 33 and 34 years old. In addition to his runner-up showings at the All-England Club and in New York, the world No. 3 captured six titles (two 250s, three 500s, and the Masters 1000 event in Cincinnati). Unlike in 2013, for example, Federer has been incredibly consistent–as evidenced by his 59-10 record for the season and by the fact that he has lost only once to anyone outside the current top 11 since May.
2015 record: 59-10
Fall record (post-U.S. Open): 8-2
Best tournament: Cincinnati title
d. Roberto Bautista Agut 6-4, 6-4
d. Kevin Anderson 6-1, 6-1
d. Feliciano Lopez 6-3, 6-4
d. Andy Murray 6-4, 7-6(6)
d. Novak Djokovic 7-6(1), 6-3
Biggest win at different tournament: d. Novak Djokovic 6-3, 7-5 in Dubai final
World Tour Finals appearances: 13
World Tour Finals record: 48-11
Best World Tour Finals result: Champion (2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011)
Record against other World Tour Finals qualifiers: 96-66
vs. Novak Djokovic: 21-21
vs. Andy Murray: 14-11
vs. Stan Wawrinka: 17-3
vs. Rafael Nadal: 11-23
vs. Tomas Berdych: 14-6
vs. David Ferrer: 16-0
vs. Kei Nishikori: 3-2
Quotable: “It’s a great feeling (to qualify). I can’t believe it has been 14 years in a row and I look forward to returning to London. The atmosphere there is truly amazing. This is the (one) major event that we still have to play (in 2015). It’s one of the tournaments that I (have) enjoyed most and that I (have) had a lot of pleasure winning. I’m in good shape. I’m healthy. So I want the tournament to start.”
Outlook: Federer is an awesome 48-11 lifetime at the year-end championship with six titles. His percentages in London, specifically, are similar: 21-6 with two titles in six appearances (previous finales took place in Shanghai and Houston). Twice he has been an undefeated champion at the 02 (2010, 2011) and he was a perfect 4-0 last year before being forced to withdraw from the final against Djokovic because of a back injury. Federer is no longer as on fire as he was this summer in Cincinnati and most of the way at the U.S. Open, but his recent indoor triumph in Basel (d. Nadal in the title match) should restore plenty of confidence.
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probably runner-up, but may depend on the draw
Fed won’t do less than runner up. He will make the semis and won’t meet Nole in the semis regardless of the draw.