Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Murray vs. Berdych

Tomas Berdych enjoyed a favorable draw in Stan Wawrinka’s section of the Wimbledon bracket, but Friday may mark the ending of such good fortune. Standing in Berdych’s way of the title match is 2013 champion Andy Murray.

Andy Murray and Tomas Berdych will be squaring off for the 15th time in their careers when they meet again the Wimbledon semifinals on Friday afternoon.

Murray is leading the head-to-head series 8-6, but it has been far less competitive of late. The Scot has reeled off four victories in a row and he is a perfect 9-0 in sets without requiring a single tiebreaker since Berdych took a contentious opening set of their 2015 Australian Open semifinal encounter. They most recently faced each other earlier this season on the clay courts of Madrid, where Murray cruised 6-3, 6-2.

Until a relatively surprising quarterfinal appearance at the French Open, the clay-court swing was a disastrous one for Berdych. The ninth-ranked Czech got double-bageled by David Goffin in Rome, but his resurgence at Roland Garros apparently restored confidence in his game. Berdych is through to a sixth Grand Slam semifinal (second at the All-England Club) with wins over Ivan Dodig, Benjamin Becker, Alexander Zverev, Jiri Vesely, and Lucas Pouille.

“Definitely the way I’m playing (I can give him trouble),” Berdych said. “You know, try to push him as hard as I can, being aggressive, not giving him the time to create the game.”

“Obviously he’s a big guy who serves well,” Murray noted. “When he’s dictating the points, he hits a big, big ball.  He’s a powerful guy. Ideally, I don’t want to have him dictating all of the points because then I’ll be doing a lot of running.”

All four semifinalists have survived five-setters during this fortnight. While Berdych’s scare came against Vesely in the fourth round, Murray ran into trouble from completely out of nowhere on Wednesday. The world No. 2 won his first 14 sets of the tournament, making mincemeat out of Liam Broady, Yen-Hsun Lu, John Millman, and Nick Kyrgios before surging to a big lead over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarterfinals. Tsonga mounted a charge, but Murray held on for a 7-6(10), 6-1, 3-6, 4-6, 6-1 victory. Since finishing runner-up to Novak Djokovic at the French Open, Murray is a perfect 10-0 on grass with a title at Queen’s Club to his credit.
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Berdych also has some momentum behind him, but not to the same extent as Murray. Although the 10th seed has recovered nicely from his humiliation by Goffin, his best wins since the start of April have come at the expense of a slumping David Ferrer. Berdych has not done enough recently to suggest Murray’s recent domination in the head-to-head series will suddenly come to an end.

Pick: Murray in 3

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22 Comments on Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Murray vs. Berdych

  1. Berdych could take a set but I’m going with Murray in three. Won’t be surprised if Tomas does actually make it competitive but at the same time I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a quick one. I just don’t think Berdy will have enough mental strength or belief to really test Andy much.

  2. Berdych did play very well this Wimbledon. At the slams, he only fear Djokovic and Rafa; with both of them not there, Berdych will be liking his chances now.

    He doesn’t fear Fed or Murray, I feel, and he should know he has to take full advantage of the situation now. I think Murray will have his hands full against Berdych.

  3. I am going with Murray in 3 sets. I think the match with Tsonga was good preparation for the semifinal. He was tested and came through in the end. I think Andy is really focused, playing well and handling himself well.

    Berdy has played well at Wimbledon. The H2H between him and Murray is close. But I do think that Berdy lacks the mental strength and toughness to beat Murray at this time.

    • I was thinking exactly the same thing while watching the match yesterday. He will be match sharp now to face Berdych. and, what most people are looking forward to – a Fedray final.

  4. The pasting from Goffin clearly was a wake-up call for Berdych. He has played well so far at Wimby but like Tsonga he relies on his power to win points. Andy will be ready for him but can’t afford the lapses in concentration we saw against the pumped up Tsonga.

    Murray in 4

    • I agree about not having the lapses in concentration against Berdy. Murray let Tsonga back in the match when he was two games from winning in the fourth set. Tsonga took full advantage of Murray’s lapse and started playing some brilliant power tennis.

      Berdy also has a big serve and a power game. He has give deep at Wimbledon in the past. He is comfortable on the grass.

      This is the semifinals and I expect Andy to be ready. I am hoping we do get to have a Fed/Murray final!

  5. Andy in 3 or 4…. Whatever the outcome, I want to say well done Tomas Berdych!

    He has hit back so nicely after that double bagel by Goffin in Rome…. he is back on track.

  6. Murray’s in career best form right now and on his favourite surface with Lendl in his corner. Even Djokovic at his best would have his hands full.

    • Yeah, we all saw what happened in RG!

      Muzz should really thank his stars (or maybe Raonic & Querrey). Credit to him for keeping his end of the bargain though!

        • I assume he means that Raonic took Fed out. But I think that Murray would have beaten Fed. The assumption seems to be that Raonic will be the easier opponent for Murray.

          When it comes right down to it, Querrey taking out Novak was the real favor that Murray got.

          • @nny,
            Yes, Roger’s game was not upto his usual mark, but on grass, Fed was always going to have more trouble against the likes of Milos & Cilic more than Muzz.

            The likes of Cilic & Raonic were able to easily overpower Fed! Muzz doesn’t really play anything like that. He believes more in the cat & mouse stuff, which Roger himself is a master at.

            Plus the crowd support would have been much subdued for Muzz against Fed. 0-4 against Fed in the finals.
            He will definitely be thanking his stars!

        • Are you sure Ricky?

          The major advantage Muzz derives at Wimbledon is the crowd support!
          Had it been Roger against him in the final, the support would have been neutral at best.

  7. Berdych kept it competitive for a set. My only concern was Murray might lose his concentration when Berdych virtually hoisted the white flag after dropping the first set.

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