Wimbledon R3 previews and predictions: Paul vs. Bublik, Medvedev vs. Struff

The pressure is on Tommy Paul and Alexander Bublik, as a quarterfinal spot is ultimately up for grabs in a wide-open section of the Wimbledon draw. Daniil Medvedev and Jan-Lennard Struff are also in third-round action on Thursday.

(12) Tommy Paul vs. (23) Alexander Bublik

Paul and Bublik will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers when they clash in round three at Wimbledon on Friday. The head-to-head series stands at 3-1 (1-0 on the main tour) in favor of Paul, who most recently prevailed 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-1 on the indoor hard courts of Rotterdam in 2021. Paul also got the job done in three sets at the 2019 Playford Challenger before they split a pair of qualifying matchups in 2019 and 2020.

The 13th-ranked American is in the midst of his best season on tour. His 28-10 record includes a recent title on the grass courts of Queen’s Club and so far this fortnight he has ousted Pedro Martinez (four sets) and Otto Virtanen (five). Bublik also survived a five-setter on his way to the last 32, overcoming Jakub Mensik from two sets down before making much quicker work of Arthur Cazaux. Still, dating back to the Dubai final in early March the 23rd-ranked Kazakh is just 10-11 in his last 21 matches and he did not win more than a single match at any of three grass-court warmup events. Even on grass, Paul will likely be too solid for Bublik’s high-risk, high-reward game.

Pick: Paul in 4

Jan-Lennard Struff vs. (5) Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev has semifinal points to defend after making his best-ever run at the All-England Club last summer–and he came somewhat close to defending none of them. The fifth-ranked Russian was down a set and a break to Alexandre Muller on Wednesday but recovered to win 6-7(3), 7-6(4), 6-4, 7-5. He preceded that result by beating Aleksandar Kovacevic 6-3, 6-4, 6-2, giving him a 3-1 record on grass this summer following a Halle second-round loss to Zhizhen Zhang.

Up next for Medvedev is a ninth encounter with Struff, who trails the head-to-head series 6-2 (5-1 at the ATP level). On the bright side for the 41st-ranked German, he is 1-1 against Medvedev on grass with a 7-6(6), 6-3 victory three years ago in Halle and a setback in a fourth-set tiebreaker at Wimbledon a couple of weeks later. At 34 years old, Struff has been playing the best tennis of his life dating back to last spring. He is effective on every surface, and although his most notable results have come on clay his serve makes him extremely dangerous on grass. With Medvedev in unspectacular form, this is a good upset opportunity for Struff.

Pick: Struff in 5