Wimbledon R1 previews and predictions: Bublik vs. Mensik, Jarry vs. Shapovalov

Wimbledon gets underway on Monday, when seeds Alexander Bublik and Nicolas Jarry are taking the court. They have tough first-round matchups on their hands against Jakub Mensik and Denis Shapovalov, respectively.

Jakub Mensik vs. (23) Alexander Bublik

Bublik and Mensik will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers when they clash in round one of Wimbledon on Monday afternoon. Having reached the last 16 in 2023 (lost to Andrey Rublev in five sets), Bublik has 180 ranking points to defend at the All-England Club. He might not defend any of them given his current form and the difficulty of of his opening-round matchup. Since reaching the Dubai final in early March the 23rd-ranked Kazakh is just 8-11 in his last 19 matches. Bublik did not win more than a single match at any of three grass-court warmup tournaments.

Although Mensik is much less experienced on grass, he heated up on the surface with a quarterfinal showing in Mallorca–where he knocked off Chris Eubanks and Fabio Fognini before losing to eventual champion Alejandro Tabilo. The 18-year-old Czech has earned 13 of his career 16 main-tour match victories this season and is ranked 78th going into Wimbledon. With Bublik struggling and serving erratically (58 double-faults in his last eight matches), this is a good opportunity for Mensik–even on grass.

Pick: Mensik in 5

(19) Nicolas Jarry vs. Denis Shapovalov

Will a return to the All-England Club be just what the doctor ordered for Shapovalov? It’s possible, because the 25-year-old Canadian made a run to the semifinals in 2021 and advanced to the fourth round last summer. The bad news for him, of course, is that he is 10-15 at the ATP level and slumping down at No. 120 in the world.

Up first for Shapovalov on Monday is a first-ever meeting with Jarry. It is basically the opposite story for the 28-year-old Chilean, who does not particularly like grass but is in stellar form this season. He has posted runner-up finishes in Buenos Aires and Rome while reaching the quarterfinals in Miami. Unfortunately for Jarry, he is 11-14 lifetime on grass and has not yet played on it in 2024. Don’t be surprised if the surface makes the difference in Shapovalov’s favor.

Pick: Shapovalov in 5