Wimbledon R1 previews and predictions: Mannarino vs. Monfils, Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi

The first day of the Wimbledon Championships kicks off on Monday with crowd favorite Gael Monfils battling fellow Frenchman Adrian Mannarino and Frances Tiafoe taking on talented Italian Matteo Arnaldi.

(22) Adrian Mannarino vs. Gael Monfils

It’s an all-French battle as one of the few “grass-court specialists,” Adrian Mannarino, faces veteran countryman Gael Monfil in one of the more intriguing first-round matches on the Wimbledon docket. The two men have met on seven previous occasions and their playing history full of interesting trends. Monfils has won their last four meetings and holds a 5-2 edge. But it’s Mannarino who won their only two encounters on grass.

The problem for Mannarino is that he is playing absolutely horrific tennis these days. The lefty has only won one match since March (on the grass courts of s’Hertogenbosch). Otherwise it has been diabolical for the No. 22 seed; even grass0court season hasn’t reversed his fortunes. Monfils hasn’t fared much better, although he did reach the Mallorca semifinals this past week. It’s doubtful this one is going to be over in straight sets. And while ordinarily the surface would be an obvious advantage for Mannarino, that hasn’t proven to be the case this season.

Cheryl pick: Monfils in 4

Ricky pick: Monfils in 5

(29) Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi

Frances Tiafoe has seen his playing form careen off a cliff this season. The No. 29 seed hasn’t even managed to post a winning record so far in 2024; he currently sits at 13-14 coming into this fortnight. He played Queen’s Club to prepare for the Championships but lost in the first round to world No. 98 Rinky Hijikata. Admittedly, Tiafoe’s best tennis comes on hard courts–but his game should translate well to grass. It’s just that he isn’t playing well right now.

Matteo Arnaldi is ranked 35th in the world, just off his career high of No. 34 that he earned at the beginning of June. He is, in short, having the season of his career. The 23-year-old is almost entirely untested playing grass-court tennis, however. He is 1-2 lifetime on the surface, with his single win coming at Queen’s Club over France’s Ugo Humbert.

Current form would suggest that Arnaldi has the edge in this match, but as the Italian is almost a complete novice playing lawn tennis, I’m actually giving Tiafoe the nod. The best-of-five format should allow time for the American to find a rhythm on his serve and to get his legs under him following his disastrous clay-court season.

Cheryl pick: Tiafoe in 5

Ricky pick: Arnaldi in 5