Wimbledon QF preview and prediction: Sinner vs. Medvedev

It’s the first of two blockbuster Wimbledon quarterfinals on Tuesday with world No. 1 Jannik Sinner taking on No. 5 Daniil Medvedev for a spot in the final four.

The matchup between Sinner and Medvedev has been prolific since their first meeting in 2020. It is also as comically lopsided as a 6-5 head-to-head has any right to be. First, every meeting has come on hard courts–perhaps less surprising than it would otherwise be considering the fact that Medvedev is notoriously inconsistent on other surfaces. But more interesting still is that Medevdev won their first six encounters and Sinner the last five. In short, Sinner has won since he “became Sinner.”

There can be little doubt that Sinner is the pre-match favorite. Form trend, surface, movement, and ball-striking are all checks in Sinner’s advantages column. It could be argued that he (perhaps as a co-favorite with Carlos Alcaraz) was the pre-tournament pick to win the whole event. The Italian even had the opportunity to work up a lather in the second round against countryman Matteo Berrettini, who pushed him to play some of his best tennis to advance.

Medvedev, who has had inconsistent results on grass courts, was a semifinalist last year. He has quietly made his way through the draw in this 2024 edition. Medvedev earned his spot in the quarters with the retirement of Grigor Dimitrov in the round of 16.

Most notable in their extensive head-to-head history is that the Russian lost an absolute heartbreaker to Sinner in the final of Australian Open at the start of this season. Medvedev was up two sets to love and Sinner managed to claw his way back to snag his first major crown.

Look for Medvedev to play well enough to push Sinner a bit, but this looks like the world No 1’s match to lose.

Cheryl pick: Sinner in 4

Ricky pick: Sinner in 4