Wimbledon QF preview and prediction: Alcaraz vs. Paul

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul has been one of the sneaky good rivalries in tennis over the past couple of seasons.

The head-to-head series is all tied up at 2-2, with three of their four encounters requiring a decisive set. Paul won back-to-back Canada Masters matchups in 2022 and 2023; 6-7(4), 7-6(7), 6-3 at the former and 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 at the latter. Each time Alcaraz bounced back to take their next showdown–in straight sets at the 2023 Miami Open and 7-6(6), 6-7(0), 6-3 last summer in Cincinnati.

They will add another chapter in the Wimbledon quarterfinals on Tuesday.

Paul is through to this stage at the All-England Club for the first time in his career; he came close in 2022 but lost to Cameron Norrie in the fourth round. Even though this is something new for Paul in SW19, it comes as no surprise whatsoever. The 13th-ranked American has been awesome this season, boasting a 31-10 record that includes a 10-1 mark on grass. He won Queen’s Club a few weeks ago and has advanced this fortnight with victories over Pedro Martinez, Otto Virtanen (five sets), Alexander Bublik, and Roberto Bautista Agut.

If Alcaraz is in for a tough day at the office, he is certainly battle tested and therefore prepared for it. Following straight-set defeats of Mark Lajal and Aleksandar Vukic (neither of which was entirely straightforward), the defending champion outlasted Frances Tiafoe 5-7, 6-2, 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-2 in the third round and scraped past Ugo Humbert 6-3, 6-4, 1-6, 7-5 in the fourth. Alcaraz is 12-1 in his last 13 matches, a stretch that also includes a French Open title and a loss to Jack Draper at Queen’s Club.

“We both play a pretty aggressive style of tennis,” Paul assessed. “He’s been playing pretty well and ultra aggressive. I mean, it’s fun for people to watch. Honestly, it’s fun to play against. I’m really excited for the matchup.”

Who wouldn’t be? The previous matches between two of the best athletes on tour have generally been amazing and they are both playing at an incredibly high level at the moment. Paul is obviously the underdog, but he has been more dominant–except against Virtanen–and overall more impressive so far at Wimbledon. Alcaraz has been winning without his ‘A’ game, just as he did en route to his recent Roland Garros triumph. There is something to be said when you are winning without your best stuff, but the 21-year-old Spaniard will need it on Tuesday against a red-hot opponent.

This could be the best match of the tournament up to this point, and it’s one Paul can win.

Pick: Paul in 5