Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal may have produced more instant classics throughout their historic rivalry, but the “Big 4” matchup that delivers competitive and entertaining matches on the most consistent basis is Federer vs. Novak Djokovic.
There is also no matchup this sport has seen more often.
Federer and Djokovic will be facing each other for the 48th time when they meet again in the Wimbledon final on Sunday afternoon. Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 25-22, with an 8-2 record in their last 10 encounters dating back to the spring of 2015. The Serb is 2-1 against Federer at the All-England Club, with triumphs in the 2014 and 2015 finals following a loss in the 2012 semis.
They most recently collided this past fall on the indoor hard courts of Paris, and it did not disappoint. Djokovic survived a 7-6(6), 5-7, 7-6(3) semifinal thriller.
Based on current form in addition to the head-to-head history, another fun one should be in the cards. Federer has followed up an encouraging clay-court campaign with an 11-0 record on grass. On the heels of a 10th title in Halle, the 37-year old punched his ticket to a 12th Wimbledon final with victories over Lloyd Harris, Jay Clarke, Lucas Pouille, Matteo Berrettini, Kei Nishikori, and Rafael Nadal. Although the 40th showdown between Federer and Nadal featured high-quality tennis, the Swiss finished it four and he has not yet played a five-setter.
“Federer, we all know how good he is anywhere–but especially here,” Djokovic praised. “This surface complements his game very much. He loves to play very fast; takes away the time from his opponent. (He) just doesn’t give you any same looks; he just rushes you to everything. So for players maybe like Nadal or myself that like to have a little more time, it’s a constant pressure that you have to deal with.
“I’ve played with Roger in some epic finals here a couple years in a row, so I know what to expect.”
Djokovic has dropped two sets along the way to Federer’s three, defeating Philipp Kohlschreiber, Denis Kudla, Hubert Hurkacz (four), Ugo Humbert, David Goffin, and Roberto Bautista Agut (four).
As well as Nadal played in London, this is arguably the most fitting final in terms of both seeding and overall Wimbledon success. Federer is 101-12 lifetime at this event with eight titles; Djokovic is 71-10 and has won it four times.
Following his win over Nadal, Federer said that the “stars are aligned right now” and that “from that standpoint I can go into (this) match very confident.” For many reasons, the stars are most definitely aligned for a great one on Sunday. But for Federer? The second seed admitted after the semifinals that he was “exhausted,” whereas a well-rested Djokovic has been coasting past people for the most part. Federer can take this to five if he serves as well as he usually does at Wimbledon, but an edge goes to the world No. 1.
Pick: Djokovic in 5
[polldaddy poll=10362490]
WWW?
Djoker in 4 unfortunately. He is too good at the moment.
Federer has been playing better tennis since the last time he lost to Djokovic and even then it was very close. Federer has the momentum after beating Nadal. Federer in 3
Djoko in 4. Hope I am wrong.
whoops, hope you are right, Mr. Happy!
Nole in 4 or 5.
That will indeed be a happy ending
Ah vmk1, always happy to hear from you. You usually make me laugh and at the same time I know you to be sincere in your respect for Nole.
Djoko’s movement is superb on any surface, he’s like a spiderman, so quick and so flexible. Those balls that Rafa couldn’t get to, Djoko most likely could. It’s tough to hit past him.
Fed has to be at the top of his game to have a chance against Djoko. Djoko usually goes four or five sets in a slam final, he will probably outlast Fed to win.
Lucky, you do say nice things about Nole’s tennis, which I appreciate because you are not one to say stuff you don’t mean.
Fed has some mojo….in 4🇬🇧🎾💪
It’s all about recovery for 38 y.o. Fed to beat best returner Novak since his last one in 2012.
Lack of full recovery was definitely a major factor in Federer’s loss to Nova at Wimbledon.
Going to have to go with Djokovic here. Despite some mediocre play against Agut, he really gets up for matches against Federer and Nadal. I think Rafa showed last year that he IS still beatable on faster surfaces, but the Fed/Nadal dynamic is quite different to Fed/Djokovic, especially at this point in their respective careers.
Djokovic will likely get way more balls back and he can make this grueling. Fed stifled Rafa’s aggressive game so he won, because let’s face it, Rafa isn’t the same defender he once was. Djokovic is still close to his ‘peak defender’ best, and he will return better. He may serve better as well. The mental aspect is big, as I (and many others) have said – aside from Rafa on clay, Fedal have struggled against Djokovic. I would say Fed had/has a ‘mental block’ against Djokovic. It isn’t just that though, I think he has the potential to outlast Fed if necessary – get him on the run to his FH side. That’s what he’s managed to do in the past, even with Fed serving a super high %.
Excellent ! Always love your analysis . Spot on
Thanks fedexal
I should have also mentioned that fatigue could come into it for Federer. He did overcome three consecutive five setters in ’17, but that was two years ago and he’d had more of a break beforehand. It may not be an issue, but it’s a likely factor if the match goes deep. Even more so if there are a lot of long rallies, Fed did well to avoid getting pinned by Rafa to his BH corner, he has to do the same here as Djokovic usually has such good depth. This has previously been a problem, and it’s where Fed is then forced to hit FH’s on the run time and again. I think he would have to use an aggressive BH to avoid the sorts of rally patterns of 2014/15, so I guess we’ll see how successful he can be trying to hit over the BH against Djokovic.
Fed in 4. I think Djokovic is carrying a niggle or something
Well, if that is the case, of course Fed more likely in 3 and it will be a wet blanket of a final. Have you heard – do you have a source that Nole is carrying a niggle? He did slip and fall down A LOT this fortnight.
Fed in 4. Stars have aligned for him n he beat Nishi 🙂 anyone who beats Nishi wins the slam
Enough reading TG for me until this final is over. It is feeling like Federer will win on the power sentiment. If the crowd is full of Fed Fans, as it will be, that could be enough to sway it. I don’t know how much negative energy Nole can withstand without losing it. Rafa was able for years to win at RG when he was mistreated by the Parisian crowd. I have not heard Rafa fan complaints in some time. But I remember it was hard on his fans and Uncle Toni complained about it years ago. Nothing stopped Rafa from winning! I’m not sure Nole is that strong emotionally.
Nole has to remain focused, not get put off, and fight with a gladiator heart. That’s always tough for him to do because he is so sensitive to his surroundings.
Elizabeth- the ultra pro-Fed crowd should make you feel BETTER about Novak’s chances! When has 90% of the crowd going against him ever done anything except for spur him to victory against Fed? The answer is never, and it’s one of the things that worries me for Fed. The “Novak-feeling-disrespected-by-the-world” thing is very real. And I really believe that it only fuels him more every time it happens.
I agree with this, it tends to motivate him. Practically all the Wimbledon crowd wanted a Fed win in 14/15, but if anything it helped rather than hindered Djokovic.
As Kyrgios pointed out in a rare moment of accuracy, the guy just really wants to be admired like Fedal and it kills him that he isn’t. Personally I do feel bad for him as he’s rarely got the crowd on his side despite being a champion, but I think it can fire him up. It seems counter-intuitive, but I don’t think a highly pro-Fed crowd will be to Fed’s advantage.
I am not anti Nole rc! But I kind of feel that after that amazing performance Fed deserves it more. If the crowd is very anti Nole I will get mad though and may switch to supporting him. I can’t stand it when the crowd gets on his case. We will see no?
this one should be entertaining, two best grass court players: one of all time and the other one as of late. it is a coin flip.
Djokovic in 5. I haven’t wanted to be wrong this much in quite some time. Please, Fed- end your career with a bang! Winning a major beating Rafa AND Novak en route would have been extraordinary for Fed had it happened ANY time since 2011. But when he’s about to be 38 years old? It would just…. I just…. I wouldn’t even know what to say anymore. I truly can’t fathom it, despite the fact that it’s quite possible. I’ve said this countless times, but there’s very good reason why every male player since wooden racquets has been either retired or no longer a title-contender by their mid-30’s. Fed is in his late 30’s now, and is still contending for majors just as much as always. Connors has his one dream run to the USO SF when he was 38 or 39, but he was not even remotely considered a title contender since his early-to-mid 30’s. Agassi was the best player in the world at 33, and was definitely a true contender at 34. But after that, even in his dream USO Final run at 35, nobody really believed he would be able to get all the way to the trophy. (Although it would have been maybe the greatest day of my life had he won, as Agassi is my all-time favorite).
It’s so hard to imagine things being done that no one has ever come close to doing. I’ve been weary of setting high expectations of a guy who will likely retire from old age in 1 year. What I’m struggling to figure out is whether Fed is a total anomaly, or if he is simply the very first of a new trend, where guys will be playing close to their best tennis as they near age 40. Are Rafa and Novak going to be in the same boat? After Fed retires next year, are Rafa and Novak going to continue winning every single
Major for the following 5 or 6 years? Are guys like Tsitsipas going to still be contending in, like, 2040? The answer is that we won’t know until Rafa and Novak get to Fed’s current age in 5 to 6 years.
At this moment, however, the only thing that matters is that Roger Federer is doing something that hasn’t been done is nearly 50 years. And back then, it was just a different sport than it is now. It wasn’t even in the same stratosphere in terms of athleticism, power, and speed. Had Fed been born 50 years earlier, he probably would have contended for majors past age 50!
It would really be an incredible finale to Fed’s career if he managed to pull this off tomorrow. I refuse to have any expectations of him, though. He deserves so much praise no matter what happens. Everything right now is gravy. However amazing he’s playing at 38, he is still a human like everyone else, and we must keep that in perspective.
#HerbertWillWin
Also, what thin white duke said above is another reason why I have to pick Novak. How many times have we seen him go through a major playing at a “B”, or maybe even a “C” level, only to up his game and intensity exponentially once he faces Fed or Rafa in the Final or SF? That’s pretty much been the story for the majority of his title runs, and he’s had more title runs than anyone in recent years.
Overall, I just fear Novak Djokovic. For the last 5 years, if he is fully healthy and not facing Wawrinka, the guy has been NEARLY unbeatable. You can call it a safe bet, but it’s VERY safe! At least for me, Novak has shut me up too many times to count. At a certain point, I just became forced to accept that he is always going to be the most likely to win if he’s healthy and it’s not RG. No one is actually unbeatable. Unbeatable doesn’t exist. Fed can win tomorrow. But a combination of Novak dominating the slams and dominating Federer has left me with doubt that is absolutely reasonable.
Kevin, you said Nadal would beat Fed at the start of the tournament and this Fed can’t beat the top 2 on any surface anymore due to a decline in his physical and congintive abilities. This prediction feels awfully similar to that one for some reason. Based predominately on history and assumptions. Good luck.
Federer is the better tennis ‘authentic’ tennis player, Djokovic is no doubt the better human backboard and hussler. With everything else remaining constant, on grass the superior authentic player usually wins. I dont think we’ve seen Fed in this kind of form for a long time.
One other factor that may be relevant: against RBA, it was pretty clear that Djokovic’s FH was his markedly weaker side. He kept most of the rallies BH to BH, away from RBA’s potent FH, but Roberto isn’t adept or confident enough to consistently take his BH down the line. Fed has that ability to a greater degree, and I expect to see more balls hit to the Novak forehand during this match.
I think that the crowd plays an important role. Actually I believe they don’t do Fed a favour by cheering for him 90% of the time. He will never admit it. It would be rude.
If they cheered for Novak, he may feel uncomfortable about it. They just help Djoko, by going with Fed every time. I’m sorry for Fed. Too much love is not what he needs right now. He needs to find his top game.
Honestly, I thought if Rafa was able to beat Fed he would have been able to beat Nole this time as Novak did not look that good against Agut…. However, now that Fed once again shows his supremacy on grass he seems better than Nole and unless he is too tired he should win another Wimby title on Sunday! He will have to do it in four though, as if it goes to five I think Nole is the favorite…
I think you could be right.
That’s encouraging Natashao.
The brothers McEnroe have made their picks. Both are picking Djokovic. John says in 4, and Patrick says in straight sets!
Federer 3-2
Rod Laver: ‘Roger Federer can beat Djokovic, he is the GOAT’
https://www.tennisworldusa.org/tennis/news/Roger_Federer/73906/rod-laver-roger-federer-can-beat-djokovic-he-is-the-goat-/
Laver said: “I have not seen much Djokovic but Nadal and Federer played unbelievable tennis. I do not think Roger has played much better than this. <<< Take Note!
What he says the reverse happens haha…he said rafa will beat djoko at ao, he said djoko will win french
Ok then; https://www.tennisworldusa.org/tennis/news/Roger_Federer/73623/rod-laver-i-d-like-roger-federer-to-win-wimbledon-but-novak-djokovic-will-/
this match was a pure madness. congrats Ricky, you nailed it!.
When you’re on a losing streak, eventually luck has to come your way…and what an incredible amount of luck did come your way.
haha, it was very hard to predict this one, i didn’t know which way to go. i said ‘coin flip’ myself. indeed, it was a coin toss.
Pick: Serena Williams 2-0 (completely wrong)
Pick: Nadal 3-1 (completely wrong)
Pick: Djokovic 3-2 (pure luck)