The women’s singles event at Wimbledon all comes down to Jasmine Paolini and Barbora Krejcikova–just like everyone had in their brackets, right? This Paolini’s second consecutive Grand Slam final appearance, but the fact that she has made it this far at the All-England Club is far more surprising than her Roland Garros performance. Similarly, Krejcikova is a former French Open champion who had never done much of anything on grass prior to 2024.
Here are my picks for the championship match.
Jasmine Paolini to win (+125)
Paolini has been awesome this season. What’s most impressive is that she has been racking up results on all three surfaces. The world No. 7 was runner-up on the red clay of Roland Garros last month, is now into another major final–this time on grass–and won the biggest title of her career at the WTA 1000 in Dubai (hard courts) in February. Her current fortnight includes straight-set defeats of 2019 U.S. Open champion Bianca Andreescu and a previously scorching-hot Emma Navarro (the American had crushed both Naomi Osaka and Coco Gauff earlier in Wimbledon). Krejcikova has won just 19 matches in her career on grass compared to 230 on clay. It’s not like the Czech has a huge advantage on this surface.
Over 22.5 games (-110)
A long, competitive contest can be expected. Krejcikova is slight favorite, but as mentioned above there is no reason to think she will win with ease–if it all. Both of these women have been in impressive form this fortnight, but neither one has been anywhere close to dominant. Paolini has survived two marathon matches up to this point (against Madison Keys in the round of 16 and against Donna Vekic in the semifinals) and two others required a tiebreaker. Krejcikova has also been to three sets twice and two other times she prevailed in a second-set tiebreaker. Moreover, amidst the pressure of a major final it’s unlikely that either woman closes out the match in convincing fashion.
Paolini Over 3.5 service breaks (-120)
Paolini leads the women’s tournament with 31 service breaks (Krejcikova is second with 27), averaging 5.17 breaks per match and 2.21 breaks per set. Yes, the 5’4” Italian is breaking serve an average of more than four times even in two-set matches. Krejcikova is dropping her serve just 1.21 times per set so far at these Championships, but that number doesn’t offset Paolini’s returning numbers. And it’s worth noting that the Czech has not yet faced a returner of Paolini’s caliber.
Over 0.5 tiebreakers played (+200)
Everyone loves a tiebreaker–especially in major final. The the intensity, the drama…it’s what a match of this magnitude deserves. Nobody should be surprised if at least one tiebreaker is necessary on Saturday. Paolini has played a tiebreaker in four of her past five rounds. Krejcikova has been pushed to a tiebreaker five times even though just two of her matches have required three sets.
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who ya got?
Would love Paulini to take it–Krejcikova has busted me twice this tourney lol
Pick it.
Will say Jasmine, in a long 3
I actually don’t know. Barbora has a slightly superior skill set, but Jasmine has such a daring attitude.
I’m going with Jasmine in 3, but could go either way.
Really hoping Barbora wins. One of my faves. Wonder if playing doubles will take its toll on her energy levels.
Barbora unstoppable at the moment. Playing immaculate grass court tennis. Lovely to see.
What a turn around! 1 set each!
She did it!! Fh returned in 3rd set!
So happy for Barbora after all the injuries.
Wish they’d got Martina to present the trophy. Would’ve been so appropriate.
Wimbledon stuffy to the end.
Amazing how well the Czechs do at wimby. Marketa last year Barbora this year. And of course Petra.
Big pity Muchova couldn’t play. Her game is ideal for grass.
Just so many Czechs with mad variety and skillZ…
Rosol
I take it that’s a joke?!
Well done Barbora. Superior skills on grass paid off in the end.
Well fought Jasmine. Perhaps she can get RG next year. Amazing how well she’s done on the grass, coming from nowhere.
Very very hard to see her beating Iga. Been great tournament for her.
Hello, amy, Margot, bracket players, and friends of the bracket group!
Happy to announce that Margot is the ATP group winner! She picked Paolini to the Final, gosh sakes! Also had Rybakina to the right SF spot!
The rest of us were shooting in the dark again. Happy to see Mirra Andy join for the Wimbledon bracket and to all, thanks for playing!
Seeing Barbora Krejikova with the Wimbledon Trophy at the winner’s ceremony was the sweetest surprise. Congratulations, Barbora, and well done, Champ!
And to Jasmine Paolini, Woot! You are a dynamo on the court, making both Roland Garros and Wimbledon Finals! Congratulations also on moving up to #5 in the WTA live Rankings.
With the Wimbledon win, Barbora Krejcikova returns to the top ten 😀
I see the WTA has a couple of WTA brackets up for the coming week, four tournament brackets for ATP, three on clay, and one on grass in Newport, Rhode Island.
Oops, edit needed!
Margot won the WTA bracket, not the ATP one, quite yet 🤔
Thanks Elizabeth. In fact that’s the WTA channel slam AND I’m 9th on the main board!
#humblebrag
Margot, I had not checked the main TDC draw that is not connected to any group, public or private for years!
I checked it this morning, and you are in an elite grouping of 2 at #8. Fantastic! 🎯💖💖
A group that I’m in and do check is “Moo’s Group,” and I recognize some names from that group, plus my cherished comrades Big Al, Farah Diba, and geegee.
For perspective, I see where I am in the main group and where they likely finished late yesterday or today. When you checked early, you were ranked #7. Later, they added a host of Bracketeers, and I finally found myself in a large group ranked #144. 😀
Yes, I love doing the brackets, no matter where I am ranked. And there’s no way I can spend enough time watching tennis to win anything, even if it was on offer.
Moo’s tennis blog is far large enough to disappear in, but it gives me a measure of how hard I tried that week or didn’t try. The point is: With your earned points, you would be alone at #1 in Moo’s as you are #1 in the Jalep_Wild_guess group.
I love this game.
Am I right in saying she had hardly won a match all year ? Injured?
Have to say , theres been so many injuries this year affecting matches , it would be ironic if Djoko was now to win .Alcaraz is the better player now, but Strange things happen !
Am I right in saying she had hardly won a match all year ? Injured?
Have to say , theres been so many injuries this year affecting matches , it would be ironic if Djoko was now to win .Alcaraz is the better player now, but Strange things happen !
Krejcikova did have a back problem, but I kept picking her and losing. Wimbledon came along, and I finally picked her to lose in the first round to Veronica Kudermetova!
I left no time at all for the ATP.