Wimbledon final preview and prediction: Alcaraz vs. Djokovic

It will be hard to beat last season’s Wimbledon final, but the same two players have will have a chance to put on a similarly breathtaking show.

For a second straight year at the All-England Club, it’s Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic in the championship match.

Alcaraz triumphed 1-6, 7-6(6), 6-1, 3-6, 6-4 last summer for his second of three Grand Slam titles. That gave the Spaniard a brief 2-1 advantage in the head-to-head series, but Djokovic now leads it 3-2. The Serb won an epic 5-7, 7-6(7), 7-6(5) encounter in the Cincinnati final a month later and at the end of the season rolled to a 6-3, 6-2 victory at the Nitto ATP Finals.

Twelve months removed from their thriller in London, Djokovic is showing few–but some–signs of slowing down at 37 years old. He remains one of the three best players in the world by a wide margin but has not yet won a single tournament in 2024. Djokovic is one victory away from changing that following defeats of Vit Kopriva, Jake Fearnley, Alexei Popyrin, Holger Rune, and Lorenzo Musetti (he also got a quarterfinal walkover from Alex de Minaur).

For Alcaraz it has been full steam ahead since last summer–even though he trails Djokovic in the rankings mainly due to some injury issues this spring. Now back at his very best, the 21-year-old triumphed at Roland Garros in June and is on the brink of back-to-back major titles (in addition to going back-to-back at Wimbledon). He has advanced this fortnight by taking out Mark Lajal, Aleksandar Vukic, Frances Tiafoe (in five sets), Ugo Humbert (7-5 in the fourth), Tommy Paul, and Daniil Medvedev.

“He surprised I think all of us last year the way he played in Queen’s and Wimbledon, which he won back-to-back,” Djokovic reflected. “You would think that for someone growing up in Spain, as he did, the way he’s playing, clay court, Grand Slam win, which happened this year in Roland Garros, and U.S. Open a few years ago was maybe not as surprising as Wimbledon–but the way he has moved, played the last couple of years on grass has been terrific to watch, to be honest.

“I see a lot of similarities between me and him in terms of ability to adapt and adjust to the surface. I think that’s probably his biggest trait, is that he’s got skills to play equally well on any surface and to adapt to a given opponent that particular day.”

That’s exactly what Alcaraz did on championship Sunday in 2023. Of course, it wasn’t easy.

“Last year it was a really difficult match,” the third seed reflected. “He put me in [real] trouble. But, yeah, I know how it’s going to feel playing against Djokovic. I’ve played (him a) few times in Grand Slams, final of (a) Masters 1000, multiple times against him. I know what I have to do. I’m sure he knows what he has to do to beat me. It’s going to be a really interesting one.”

It’s also one that Alcaraz should win. He toppled Djokovic last year and that was when the 24-time major winner was near the height of his powers. The 2024 version of Djokovic has been unhealthy at times and underwhelming even when 100 percent. His Wimbledon run has been solid but at the same time leaving a bit to be desired in the competition level. Alcaraz changes that in a hurry.

The defending champ needs to serve well, but–aside from a few hiccups in rounds three and four–he has been the best all-court player at these Championships by a wide margin. If the serve improves even a little bit, Alcaraz will be on his way to another title.

Pick: Alcaraz in 4

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