Wimbledon final best bets: Djokovic vs. Federer

Rivalries between the “Big 3” just don’t get old. Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal played against each other for the 40th time on Friday, and it did not disappoint. Federer and Djokovic will now square off in Sunday’s Wimbledon final following 47 previous head-to-head showdowns.

Here are some of the best bets for this finale at the All-England Club:

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (2) Roger Federer

Federer vs. Nadal was predictably entertaining in the semis. What will Federer and Djokovic do for an encore? In all likelihood, they will also live up the hype; after all, no “Big 3” or even “Big 4” rivalry consistently delivers the goods quite like Djokovic vs. Federer. Despite such competitiveness, an edge goes to Djokovic. The world No. 1 the head-to-head series 25-22–a margin that hardly means anything, it must be said. More telling numbers are as follows: Djokovic is 2-0 against Federer in Wimbledon finals and 8-2 in their last 10 matches overall dating back to the spring of 2015.

The 37-year-old Federer may an ageless wonder, but at this point in his career he is prone to occasional “off” days, or at least off sets. Even during his recent defeat Nadal, the Swiss went off the rails briefly during set two—which he surrendered 6-1—despite eventually prevailing in four sets. He also lost his opening set of the tournament to Lloyd Harris of all opponents. Djokovic, as has always been the case the last 13 months, has not been messing around. The top-seeded Serb, who is bidding for his fourth title in the span of five Grand Slams dating back to Wimbledon in 2018, dropped just two sets en route to championship Sunday. He is more rested than Federer, too, after playing an easier semifinal against Roberto Bautista Agut (even though it also went four sets).

Top pick: Djokovic -3 games (-110)

Other picks

Over 40.5 games (Even) – Djokovic and Federer battled through 58 games in the 2014 final and 45 games in the 2015 title tilt. Another five-setter would hardly be surprising, as they have clearly established themselves as the best and most consistent grass-court players over the past five years (in Federer’s much longer than that) and they have been the best along with Nadal this whole fortnight. Expect more than a few sets to be played on Sunday and perhaps a couple of tiebreakers, as well.

Djokovic to win in five sets (+500) – Based on respective current form and past head-to-head history, there are reasons to anticipate a five-set blockbuster between Djokovic and Federer to wrap up Wimbledon in style. Eighteen installments of their rivalry have required deciding sets and they have played 14 total sets out of 15 maximum in their three Wimbledon rumbles. Their most recent encounter at last fall’s Paris Masters ended 7-6(6), 5-7, 7-6(3) in Djokovic’s favor. If this one goes five, and there is a decent chance it does, the Serb would have a clear edge being five years Federer’s junior and having more left in the tank following the semifinal proceedings. Djokovic is also 3-0 lifetime against thee Swiss in fifth sets.

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