Jannik Sinner is the No. 1 seed at a Grand Slam for the first time in his career, but the Wimbledon draw did not do him any favors. Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz landed in Sinner’s half of the bracket and 2021 runner-up Matteo Berrettini is a potential second-round opponent in what would be an all-Italian showdown. The other side of the draw is relatively wide open given Novak Djokovic’s questionable status. Alexander Zverev, Hubert Hurkacz, and Jack Draper are among those looking to take advantage.
With main-draw action beginning on Monday, it’s time to break down the field of 128.
Sinner’s quarter
The top section of this draw is loaded. In addition to Sinner and Berrettini, it is home to 2023 semifinalist Daniil Medvedev, 2014 semifinalist Grigor Dimitrov, and big-serving Ben Shelton. Those guys don’t have easy paths, either. Medvedev could meet Jan-Lennard Struff in the third round; Dimitrov will likely face either Gael Monfils or Stan Wawrinka in the third round; Shelton’s projected third-round opponent is either Nicolas Jarry or Denis Shapovalov.
Best first-round matchup — Gael Monfils vs. (22) Adrian Mannarino
Mannarino is mired in a dreadful slump, even struggling to win matches on his beloved grass. Still, he can never be discounted on this surface. These two veteran Frenchmen split Wimbledon matchups in 2015 and 2017, with Mannarino most recently winning a five-set thriller.
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Best potential second-round matchup – (1) Jannik Sinner vs. Matteo Berrettini
Best potential third-round matchup – Jan-Lennard Struff vs. (5) Daniil Medvedev
Possible surprises – Although Berrettini is no easy out on this surface, he probably isn’t going to beat Sinner. If you are looking for an unseeded floater to make a run in this quarter, it is more likely Stuff. The in-form German would have a great chance against No. 32 seed Zhizhen Zhang in round two and against the fifth-seeded Medvedev in round three. Additionally, the Shelton-Jarry section is there for the taking; Shapovalov, a semifinalist in 2021, or Alex Michelsen could be the beneficiary.
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Alcaraz’s quarter
Aside from being in Sinner’s half, Alcaraz could not have asked for a much better draw in his Wimbledon title defense. The third-ranked Spaniard is on a collision course for the quarterfinals with Tommy Paul, who recently triumphed at Queen’s Club. Casper Ruud is the No. 8 seed, but the Norwegian pretty much despises grass (except when he is playing golf) and therefore Paul is much more likely to reach the quarters than Ruud. Other than Alexander Bublik, it’s hard to see anyone preventing an Alcaraz-Paul showdown.
Best first-round matchup — Matteo Arnaldi vs. (29) Frances Tiafoe
One man (Arnaldi) is playing by far the best tennis of his life in 2024; the other (Tiafoe) is enduring his worst year since 2019. The question is if the surface will be a mitigating factor. Tiafoe is 29-21 lifetime on grass with a title last summer in Stuttgart. Arnaldi, on the other hand, is a grass-court novice. The Italian still has a great shot for an “upset,” but at the All-England Club it won’t be easy.
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Best potential second-round matchup – Lorenzo Sonego vs. Roberto Bautista Agut
Best potential third-round matchup – (12) Tommy Paul vs. (23) Alexander Bublik
Possible surprises — Alcaraz and Paul are the only reliable seeds in this section. Bublik is dangerous on grass, but you never what you are going to get from him on any given day regardless of the surface. Jakub Mensik could very well oust Bublik in round one and then face Paul in the last 32. In Ruud’s section, the winner of a likely second-round battle between Lorenzo Sonego and Roberto Bautista Agut would have a good chance to make the second week.
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Zverev’s quarter
The third section of the bracket is not top heavy but it is deep, making the semifinal spot entirely up for grabs among a whole host of contenders. They include Zverev, Draper, Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Taylor Fritz, Sebastian Korda, and Lorenzo Musetti. Things could get especially interesting in the third round, where possible matchups are Zverev vs. Draper, Tsitsipas vs. Korda, and Rublev vs. Musetti. Fritz vs. Alejandro Tabilo would also be a tilt between two in-form players.
Best first-round matchup — (20) Sebastian Korda vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Korda and Davidovich Fokina have faced each other twice before and both meetings were beatdowns in the American’s favor, including 6-1, 6-2 a couple of month ago in Monte-Carlo. Still, Davidovich Fokina is known to play thrillers in London. In 2022 he upset Hurkacz in a fifth-set tiebreaker and then lost to Jiri Vesely in a fifth-set ‘breaker. He went the distance again last year in the third round, falling to Holger Rune. Another marathon could be in the cards.
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Best potential second-round matchup – Flavio Cobolli vs. (24) Alejandro Tabilo
Best potential third-round matchup – (28) Jack Draper vs. (4) Alexander Zverev
Possible surprises — Zverev may be playing great, but the French Open runner-up has never done well at Wimbledon. He has not been past the fourth round, making it by far his worst Grand Slam. With Rublev struggling, both of the top-eight seeds in this second are vulnerable. At the same time Andy Murray is likely bidding farewell to Wimbledon, another British star could truly emerge. Draper, who upset Alcaraz at Queen’s Club, could capitalize on a favorable draw and make a semifinal run in front of the home crowd.
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Djokovic’s quarter
By all accounts Djokovic is practicing well and will be ready to go despite suffering a torn medial meniscus at Roland Garros. Even if that’s the case, though, the 37-year-old may not have an easy time of things. He could go up against either Rune or Karen Khachanov in the fourth round and Hurkacz in the quarters. Djokovic just barely got past the Pole 12 months ago in London and that was when he was in peak form. Now the Serb is slumping and Hurkacz is sky high on confidence–especially on grass.
Best first-round matchup — (17) Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis
Just about anything could happen in this one. Both Auger-Aliassime and Kokkinakis have been dealing with physical problems, so the match may end up being a dud. Kokkinakis has also never done well on grass, but he is too naturally talented to be discounted on any surface. If each man brings his best to the table, it will at least produce wildly entertaining tennis.
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Best potential second-round matchup – Andy Murray vs. (26) Francisco Cerundolo
Best potential third-round matchup – (15) Holger Rune vs. (21) Karen Khachanov
Possible surprises — Even if Djokovic is somehow 100 percent, it should not be forgotten that he has been pretty terrible in 2024 by his lofty standards. There is no reason to think he will suddenly become the Djokovic of old one month after getting injured. As such, whoever wins the projected fourth-round contest between Hurkacz and Alex de Minaur may be on his way to the semifinals. And if Djokovic is less than 100 percent, also look for either Rune, Khachanov, or 2023 quarterfinalist Chris Eubanks to make some noise.
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who ya got?
Fantastic write up.