Wimbledon Day 4 picks, including Karlovic vs. Dolgopolov and Fognini vs. Pospisil

Ricky Dimon of The Grandstand and Chris de Waard of Tennis Atlantic preview and pick the four best men’s singles matches on Thursday at Wimbledon. Ivo Karlovic vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov and Fabio Fognini vs. Vasek Pospisil are two of the highlights.

Alexandr Dolgopolov vs. (23) Ivo Karlovic

Ricky: Dolgopolov is 2-0 lifetime against Karlovic and 5-1 in total sets, with four of his five set victories not even requiring a tiebreaker. But the Ukrainian has never seen the Karlovic serve on grass. Does it make that much of a difference? No; Dr. Ivo’s serve is titanic at any time and on any surface. But he will have an easier time holding against Dolgopolov on the slick stuff. Beyond that, there is not much to analyze. If the Croat serves huge, he should win. If he doesn’t, Dolgopolov will outclass with groundstrokes and passing shots. With Karlovic in stellar form at 36 years, the thinking here is that he will turn in an overwhelming performance on serve. Karlovic 6-7(6), 7-6(3), 7-6(5), 6-4.

Chris: Karlovic’s game doesn’t translate well to the best-of-five format, which is evidenced by him only going past the third round of a Grand Slam three times in 43 attempts. Dolgopolov is very streaky, but he has displayed good grass form this year and should be able to see off Karlovic. However, Dolgopolov should be wary of not losing his concentration, which happened last week in the Nottingham semifinals against Sam Querrey–when he was up a set and a break before suddenly losing his focus and handing the momentum to the American, who went on to win the match. He can’t afford that against an even bigger server in Karlovic. Dolgopolov in 4.

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Vasek Pospisil vs. (30) Fabio Fognini

Ricky: Fognini should win this match. For perhaps no player to a greater extent than Fognini, though, is there a bigger difference between should be winning matches and actually winning them. The Italian enjoyed an entirely straightforward affair against Tim Smyczek in his opener, but Smyczek positively despises anything other than hard courts. Pospisil is an accomplished all-court player who will get into the net at times and push Fognini out of his comfort zone (does the Fog have a comfort zone?). Going five sets with Vincent Millot in round one is very disturbing, but at least the Canadian did well to battle back from a 2-1 deficit. Pospisil will hang around long enough for Fognini to hand this to him. Pospisil 6-1, 5-7, 3-6, 6-1, 6-3.

Chris: It’s almost as if Fognini has finally found his true calling in tennis: beating Rafael Nadal. After two earlier victories this year on clay, he is projected to meet him again in the fourth round here. And what do you know? He immediately handled his first round against Tim Smyczek in a very uncharacteristic manner: an uneventful straight-set victory. Ferrer’s withdrawal made Fognini the favorite to reach the fourth round (he must get past Pospisil and then a match against Jiri Vesely or James Ward awaits). Pospisil hasn’t displayed good form this year and retired from his first-round match in Nottingham last week due to a back injury. In the first round at Wimbledon he needed five sets to get past Millot, who is ranked outside the top 200. If Fognini can keep his cool once more, it should result in a victory for the Italian. Fognini in 4.

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(25) Andreas Seppi vs. Borna Coric

Ricky: Seppi is underrated on grass because he does not have any serious offensive weapons. But he loves using opponents’ pace against them and he has no problem taking the ball early. The Italian played all three weeks on grass in between the French Open and Wimbledon and he finished runner-up to Roger Federer in Halle. Seppi, who reached round four of this event in 2013, actually has a better record at Wimbledon (just barely) than at any other major. Coric, meanwhile, outlasted Sergiy Stakhovsky 9-7 in the fifth set despite major cramping after three hours and 55 minutes on Tuesday. That is a huge result for the youngster on grass, but it will not help his efforts to progress deeper into the tournament. Seppi 7-5, 6-3, 2-6, 6-2.

Chris: Coric posted a heroic and unexpected victory over Stakhovsky in the first round, beating the man who ousted Roger Federer in 2013. The Croat doesn’t appear to have a natural feel for grass-court tennis, but his all-around game and never-say-die attitude count for a lot. In Seppi he faces a completely different player than Stakhovsky, against whom he could play very reactive. In contrast to Stakhovsky, Seppi prefers long baseline exchanges and relying on his solid strokes, instead of charging the net and attacking at every opportunity. This leaves Coric facing a similar opponent to himself, and one that is currently is a better grass-court player on every front, making it unlikely that the teenager will be able to post another upset. Seppi in 3.

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(WC) James Ward vs. Jiri Vesely

Ricky: Ward clearly benefited massively from the late withdrawal of David Ferrer. The British wild card got to play Luca Vanni instead, and he promptly disposed of the lucky loser in four sets. But Vesely could be an even bigger beneficiary of Ferrer’s misfortune. Although Ward is decent on grass and playing at home, he is still a dream draw for anyone in the second round of a Grand Slam. Vesely has superior firepower in just about every department and his ability to win free points at key moments will be the difference in a competitive contest. Vesely 7-6(4), 3-6, 6-3, 6-4.

Chris: Ward must be loving life at the moment. He came into the tournament with four straight losses and got drawn against Ferrer, but the Spaniard had to withdraw due to an elbow injury. Ward was then able to post a four-set win over Vanni, a lucky loser. It also means he will soon have spot inside of the top 100 for the first time in his career. Vesely is also a favorable second-round opponent to face,as  the Czech hasn’t looked comfortable on grass and had a lot of trouble in the first round against Paolo Lorenzi, against whom he won 7-6(7), 7-6(6), 6-4. This is bound to be a very tight encounter that could go either way, but eventually Vesely may prove to be a little bit too solid when it matters. Vesely in 5.

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