A much more intriguing bottom half of the Wimbledon draw gets underway on Tuesday, when Dominic Thiem joins Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in action. Ricky Dimon of The Grandstand and Tennis Acumen‘s Pete Ziebron make their predictions for four of the best matchups.
(5) Dominic Thiem vs. Sam Querrey
Ricky: Either Querrey will pull off an upset in a thriller or Thiem will absolutely cruise. No in between. I wouldn’t be completely shocked by the former, but I would be less surprised by the latter. It is true that Querrey is a borderline Wimbledon specialist who finally has some momentum with his runner-up performance in Eastbourne, while grass is Thiem’s worst surface. But the American got manhandled by Taylor Fritz on Saturday and he isn’t the same player he was in 2016 and 2017. There is also no doubt in my mind that Thiem can be among the world’s best on all surfaces. Thiem in 3: 6-4, 7-6(6), 6-3.
Pete: Since April, Thiem has wins over Nadal, Federer, and Novak Djokovic. Querrey has served well on grass this year, as he did not face a break point in back-to-back matches in Eastbourne and was not broken in three consecutive matches heading into the final. Concurrently, it is hard to believe that just two years ago the American marched to the Wimbledon semifinals a year after halting Djokovic’s run of four consecutive majors and 30-match winning streak at majors in 2016. Despite just a 5-5 career record at Wimbledon, Thiem will be able to solve Querrey’s serve just enough to advance. Thiem in 5: 4-6, 6-4, 6-7(4), 7-5, 6-4.
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Frances Tiafoe vs. (12) Fabio Fognini
Ricky: This is one of those matchups in which basically everyone in the world is going to predict the same outcome. In this case, Fognini in four sets. It’s not going to be a rout; Tiafoe is too talented and Fognini won’t stay focused the entire way. But there is also little chance of an upset. The Italian is even more talented, is far more experienced, and is in the midst of an outstanding year. Fognini won their only previous meeting 6-4, 6-3, 3-6, 1-6, 6-0 at the 2017 French Open. I don’t think this one will be quite as wild. Fognini in 4: 6-3, 3-6, 6-2, 6-4.
Pete: Fognini enters Wimbledon as a top 10 player but has managed to reach the third round at the All-England Club just three times in 10 appearances. Tiafoe played two events on grass leading into Wimbledon and was only able to win just one match. The overall experience of the Italian will be the difference in this one. Both players have third-round points to defend and Fognini also has a pair of July titles to defend. As a result, the urgency to win is more apparent for Fognini and he will prevail. Fognini in 4: 6-3, 7-5, 2-6, 6-4.
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(13) Marin Cilic vs. Adrian Mannarino
Ricky: As if Cilic didn’t have it bad enough already, the draw ceremony pit him against probably the chief unseeded floater that nobody wanted to face in the first round. Not on grass, at least. The under-appreciated Frenchman is an absolute savant on on the green stuff but has never made tons of noise at Wimbledon due to bad draws. But he captured his first career title in ‘s-Hertogenbosch earlier this month. Cilic, on the other hand, is a dreadful 10-9 in 2019 and has plunged to 18th in the rankings. Sound the upset alert! Mannarino in 5: 6-7(3), 6-3, 7-6(6), 4-6, 7-5.
Pete: Following Cilic’s run to the Wimbledon final in 2017, his two most recent losses on grass have inexplicably come against Argentines and neither is named Juan Martin Del Potro (Guido Pella last summer at Wimbledon and Diego Schwartzman two weeks ago at Queen’s Club). Mannarino just won his first career title in ‘s-Hertogenbosch and his last three losses at Wimbledon have been to Federer and to Djokovic twice. Cilic is aware of the fact that less serious threats would await in the next rounds should he take care of business in his opening match. The former finalist wills his way to victory. Cilic in 4: 7-6(5), 6-4, 3-6, 6-4.
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Bernard Tomic vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Ricky: Tomic is basically the right-handed version of Mannarino but with a much bigger serve and a much smaller brain. His game–when he is actually motivated–works extremely well on grass. However, the Aussie’s 2019 results were terrible (even on grass) until he reached the Antalya quarterfinals. But he didn’t beat anyone nearly as good as Tsonga. Even this downgraded version of Tsonga is still a steep step up in competition for Tomic. This will be competitive for a while before Tomic inevitably disappears. Tsonga in 3: 6-4, 7-6(11), 6-0.
Pete: World No. 70 Tsonga vs. world No. 101 Tomic. The rankings are low, yet this matchup holds plenty of intrigue for what may happen. Tsonga is 30-10 all time at Wimbledon and took a set from Federer in Halle a couple of weeks ago. Tomic hit 35 aces with just seven double-faults during a two-match stretch in Antalya last week and enjoys direct entry into the main draw after having to qualify at Wimbledon last year. The Frenchman will take full advantage each and every time the level of Tomic’s play begins to dip. Tsonga in 4: 4-6, 7-5, 6-4, 6-3.
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Thiem in 4; Fog in 4; Song in 3; Mrino in 4
I’ve got Mannarino in 4, Thiem in a tight 3 sets, Tsonga in 3, Foggy in 5
Querrey is to good on grass and has a dominant serve to not be able to win a set. Plus he competes better at slam level over 5 sets. I would be shocked if he didn’t win at least a set even in current form. His is by far Theims weakest surface Historically, Querrey Judy doesn’t lose 3-0 on this surface against almost anyone and Theim doesn’t best most 3-0 in this surface, especially not someone like Querrey that made the semi finals in 2017. He made the final of Eastbourne and ran into a hot opponent. That will prepare him well against an opponent that hasn’t played a match on grass yet and should fair better over 5 sets.
Theim in 4 (maybe 5)
Fog in 4
Mannarino in 5
Tsonga in 3
Thiem in 4 or 5. Querrey is too confident on grass not to win a set.
Also agree with Fognini pick but he is not reliable here Tiafoe will have a chance.
Tsonga over Tomic – probably 3 sets, I’d guess
Mannarino vs Cilic could be a long match. I pick Mannarino in 5 – because I’ve lost faith in poor Cilic.
Very bad idea, underestimating Cilic. My brackets are not doing too well due to me picking Mannarino, Thiem, Sascha, and Stefanos.
Respect to Querrey. He is better on grass than Thiem. And in general, he can be dangerous when he has a mind to win. (remembering Acapulco) This might set Querrey off to at least make the QF’s! (maybe)
Querrey in 5, Tsonga in 3, Cilic in 4, Fognini in 5. Also just on a side note…can we talk about how bad Dimitrov is?
Strange how he played so well at RG, his worst surface.
Thiem to outlast Querrey in five, Querrey might win the first two sets though .
Tsonga in three, Cilic in five, Fognini in four (Tiafoe is better on grass, but hasn’t done much lately)
I saw an interview with Cilic , he sounded really confident going into this.
Great pick!
Looks like Thiem is about to lose in four sets!
The transition from clay to grass is really not easy, Sasha, Tsitsipas and now Thiem, three top ten players who made at least R4 at RG, they lost or are about to lose in R2 at Wimbledon grass.
Fed loses his serve to a 22 yo Harris who is playing his first match at Wimbledon. Oh dear!
*I mean R1 at Wimbledon grass.
Rubbish play by Fed!! What’s up with him!
Has Fed come out too complacent??
Whatever is wrong with Fed at the moment, I stick to my assertion that we have underlooked the fact that he is no less human than every other all-time great who was either retired or nearly irrelevant by his age. It’s easy to be fooled by the fact that his once-in-generation serving and aggressive play has covered up his serious decline in the other facets of the game. It’s easy to forget that he will likely be retired from the game a year from now. Hes been very lucky that his strengths happen to be the couple of aspects of the game that are required to have any success in your mid-to-late 30’s. To me, his decline has been plain to see. He’s just been able to adjust to older tennis age really well. The guy is in his last year of his career- no outcome would be surprising to me now.
Kevin,
I enjoy reading your posts. I like your analysis. I hope you keep on saying what you think even if you get criticized by Fed fans. You back up your thoughts with reason and knowledge.
It looks like Fed has righted the ship here.
Kevin, I didn’t see the match against Harris, in which Fed apparently didn’t play very well in the first set. But please tell me: in 2019, where is the evidence of Fed’s decline? He has played 8 tournaments, 5 off clay and 3 clay, a surface he hasn’t played on in years.
In the former category, he has three titles, one final, and one 4R (AO). On clay, he has a 4R, QF (retired) and SF at RG. Apart from the AO, his results this year are clearly better than last. It took nothing short of amazing tennis to beat him at the AO (Tsitsipas), Madrid (Thiem), and RG (Nadal). You might add the IW loss to Coric to that list as well.
I just don’t think Fed’s results back up your narrative at all. He may retire within a year, but there’s no basis at present for saying that it will be based on his declining play.
Not exactly a surprise that Querrey won, but he bagelled Dom in the fourth set which is pretty shocking unless Dom was injured.
I am surprised that Thiem was bageled. I remember when Querrey took out Novak. He can cause upsets on the grass.
But color me surprised to see three young top ten players all out in the first round.
Martina making an interesting point that it’s not just a technical question when transitioning from clay to grass but an emotional one, ie especially for Rafa who always wins and has to use up a lot of emotional energy.
Meh. Rafa usually has emotional energy to spare!
All his recent injuries did sap both physical and emotional injury. He gave a detailed interview to L’Equipe after RG, describing vividly the awful way he felt after losing in MC and then struggling in Barcelona v L. Mayer. He said he considered shutting down play until sometime after Wimbledon, maybe for the whole year so he could regenerate body and mind. One of the things that kept him going was thinking about Madrid, how much he loves the support from his people there. So he decided to change his mindset, his attitude, be positive, not complain when things weren’t going well – in short being “Rafa” again (my words, not his) and woke up the next morning full of energy, determined to keep going.
Rafa didn’t mention Toni as one of the people he spoke to, but the whole thing made me think of a bit in his book where Toni says when Rafa’s in too much pain that Toni tells him he has two roads to choose from: “tell yourself you’ve had enough and we go home or stay and endure”.
Horrible start!😢
8 points in a row for Sugita! Rafa completely mistiming the ball
So now Tiafoe is also out, after battling against Foggy for five sets.
I’m surprised to see both Foggy and Schwartz playing well to win on grass. And, I’m surprised that Shapo lost easily to Berankis, couldn’t even get a set; Sasha, Tsitsi, Tiafoe fought hard to at least get a set or two before losing.
Yeah my picks have not been the smartest. I did pick both Fognini and Schwartzman to win a couple rounds tho. Nice to see Andrey Rublev get a win today too. He’s not been able to play well for a long time! Too bad he has Querrey next.
I watched Federer and I was impressed with Harris tennis and amazing head of hair.
Sincerely though, I didn’t feel Federer would lose. He was just checking out the new guy for a set. Fed should make it past Jay Clarke too – again he’s never played Jay Clarke. I suppose Fed could lost a set to him too. But bigger tests for Fed are coming. Fed would be doing well to make it to Rafa as respectfully have him going. If he goes any deeper than the SF”s it will be fairly shocking to me. But it wouldn’t be the first time I’ve been shocked by Roger Federer. Respect for the Fed.