Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Alcaraz vs. Medvedev

Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev will be squaring off for the seventh time in their careers and already for the third time at Wimbledon when clash in the semifinals on Friday afternoon.

Alcaraz leads the head-to-head series 4-2 and has won four of their last five meetings dating back to the spring of 2023 since getting blown out by Medvedev 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 at the All-England Club in 2021. The trend of this rivalry is no surprise, as the 21-year-old Spaniard is obviously an entirely different player now than he was in ’21. Medvedev found that out the hard way last summer at Wimbledon, going down in swift 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 fashion. The Russian got revenge in the U.S. Open semis, but Alcaraz has answered with a pair of straight-set victories (at the Nitto ATP Finals and this season in Indian Wells).

Alcaraz certainly heads into this next chapter of their rivalry as a sizable favorite. After all, he is the defending Wimbledon champion and also the reigning French Open champ. The world No. 3 was unspectacular through the first four rounds of this fortnight, beating Mark Lajal, Aleksandar Vukic, Frances Tiafoe (in five sets), and Ugo Humbert (7-5 in the fourth). He also started slow against Tommy Paul in the quarters but recovered from a set and a break down to dominate 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-2.

Medvedev arrived in London a bit under the radar. There seems to be somewhat of a Big 3 again on tour right now, featuring Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Novak Djokovic–with Medvedev being left out of the party. The 28-year-old has not yet won a title this season and he was 0-3 combined against Alcaraz and Sinner in 2024 heading into this fortnight. Suddenly, though, Medvedev is back on track and back in the semis. The world No. 5 advanced to the last eight with wins over Aleksandar Kovacevic, Alexandre Muller, Jan-Lennard Struff, and Grigor Dimitrov (via first-set retirement). He then upset Sinner 6-7(7), 6-4, 7-6(4), 2-6, 6-3 on Tuesday.

Now Medvedev gets another shot at Alcaraz, again on semifinal Friday. Last summer the underdog was doomed by 59 percent serving, an especially crippling number because he won only 30 percent of his second serve points.

Medvedev reflected, “Did I serve not well enough or [was] Carlos amazing on the return this day last year? I have to serve better. That’s still the most important thing on grass. You serve aces, you serve on the line, you’re less in trouble, and you feel better. That’s where you can put pressure on his serve.”

“The most difficult thing about facing Daniil, or the most special thing about him, is he can reach every ball,” Alcaraz commented. “Well, he is like a wall. Every ball [comes] back. I feel like I can hit an unbelievable shot, the ball is going to [come] back. It’s difficult to play thinking about that.”

This matchup has not been too difficult for Alcaraz in recent seasons, which makes sense. Medvedev playing miles behind the baseline and just getting balls back isn’t enough, because it allows Alcaraz play ultra aggressive and gives him plenty of space to implement the drop-shot that he loves so much. The fifth seed has to step up his own aggressiveness and play more outside his comfort zone against Alcaraz, and that can lead to mistakes. Medvedev needs to play big, but he also can’t afford 11 double-faults like he tossed in against Sinner on Tuesday.

Although Medvedev is playing too well to get crushed in the manner he did last year, this is another match Alcaraz should win.

Pick: Alcaraz in 4

[yop_poll id=”1311″]