Will the King of Clay Rafael Nadal reign supreme at Roland Garros?

Although the ever-popular French Open was suspended due to the unpredictable global coronavirus pandemic, it was eventually announced that the clay-court Grand Slam would get underway in November. The Stade Roland Garros finally re-opened its doors on Sept. 21(for qualifying), having been pushed back from the original date of May 24.

But, regardless, we’re sure it will be worth the wait!

Tennis fans everywhere have waited with bated breath to see 12-time champion Rafael Nadal take the court this year. In 2019, Nadal claimed his showstopping 12th French Open title, further maintaining his near flawless record when playing at Roland Garros. The final score stood at 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1 against Dominic Thiem, playing out over three hours. We’re sure that many had placed their bets on the King of Clay—perhaps online with Betdaq—and you might want to know the chances of Nadal puling it out again this year.

Read on as we discuss Nadal’s playing history, and make your predictions for the 2020 tournament!

Nadal is known to be the best clay-court player in the history of tennis, and his stats undoubtedly support this. So far, the Spaniard has won a total of 85 titles in his singles career, complimented nicely by 11 titles from his less-frequent doubles events. Not only that, but the his total of 12 French Open titles is an even more impressive feat when you consider that he has played it only 15 times to date.

The 2019 victory came as the third French Open win for Nadal in as many years, following nine consecutive wins between 2005 and 2014. So in terms of following one year’s win with another, that is definitely a firm possibility for this well-rounded player.

Another noteworthy tennis event was the US Open, which took place from the end of August to the second week of this month. Many fans would have expected to see the impressive Spaniard bouncing across the hard courts of New York, but they would have been unfortunately disappointed as Nadal ended up withdrawing from the competition—deciding not to defend the most recent of his four titles. It’s thought that one of the reasons behind this choice was merely down to the proximity between the US and French Open, taking place a week apart and also 6,000km apart.

Nadal has a chance to tie the all-time Grand Slam singles record because 20-time winner Roger Federer won’t be competing at Roland Garros this year. Unluckily for Federer, this is mostly due to an arthroscopic operation on his knee following an injury, which is set to keep him off the courts for the rest of the year.

However, world No. 1 Novak Djokovic has confirmed that he will be arriving on the clay courts, ready and willing to take on the tournament’s reigning champion. Djokovic definitely poses a potential threat for Nadal, having beaten Britain’s Andy Murray in the 2016 French Open final. Nevertheless, Nadal has seen off the Serb on numerous occasions—including in the final in both 2012 and 2014. With this in mind, it doesn’t seem out of the question that Nadal vs. Djokovic could see the former coming out on top once more.

Another contender and possible obstacle for both Nadal and Djokovic is world No. 3 Dominic Thiem, who stands as the joint-second favourite to win alongside Djokovic. Having already beaten Nadal once this year in reaching the Australian Open final, Thiem has also made the latter stages of the French Open in his last four attempts—although he ended up losing to Djokovic and Nadal in the 2016 and 2017 semifinals, respectively. He fell short to Nadal yet again in both the 2018 and 2019 finals—the former finishing 6-4, 6-3, 6-2, and the latter being a slightly closer 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1. With Thiem now edging closer to Nadal’s prowess, perhaps his next run-in with the star could end in a victory.

With everything to play for, it seems fairly likely that Nadal could bag himself that fourth consecutive French Open title, as well as matching Federer at 20 career Grand Slam victories.

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Who will win the French Open?

33 Comments on Will the King of Clay Rafael Nadal reign supreme at Roland Garros?

  1. No. He may have, if he had won Rome. But Novak conquered Rome and he will be unstoppable at the French. He might as well be handed the trophy before his first round, and the rest of them then made to compete for the Runner’s Up. That’s how grim men’s tennis is nowadays. Nadal’s fans can, however, pray for another reckless endangerment incident from Novak to have any hope at the French. It’s Novak all the way. Back in the early 2000s, the crowd wished for slower courts, and they have had them across all types of surfaces since the late 2000s. There are no grass specialists, or dirt rats any more, and hardly any all-court players. You get a super counter-puncher and retriever rule across all surfaces. Be careful of what you wish … https://www.138mph.com/simona-halep-and-novak-djokovic-conquer-rome/

    • ‘Novak all the way’? Haha

      It’s 1 french open vs 12, and for good reason. The conditions at RG aren’t the same as Rome, and Nadal will have a few early rounds to get his FH working properly. I think the gap between him and Thiem has closed a little due to improvements in the latter’s game, but Djokovic is still comfortably the third best player on clay. He’s probably just as dangerous to Nadal as Thiem, but not quite as solid against the field.

      The fact that these three are a level above everybody else (Shapo, Zverev, Tsitsipas, Wawrinka…) makes the draw interesting. Thiem will likely be a major obstacle, you obviously don’t want him on your side of the draw. The only question mark on him will be his recovery so soon after the USO. That major title should’ve boosted his confidence, but he may be carrying an ankle issue and lacking clay-court practice. However, given there’s no suggestion of a major injury and he’ll have a few rounds to warm-up, I like his chances as the 2nd favourite. Progress isn’t always linear, but I strongly favour him in the Djokovic match-up. He has a great opportunity to push Nadal one step further this year.

  2. Of course Rafa is still the favourite. Don’t expect him to play like crap at the FO the way he played at the Rome QF. When it comes to a slam, Rafa rarely, in fact never, play like crap.

  3. I think it very much comes down to the draw and who has to play Thiem in semis. I dont think Djoko can get through both Thiem and Nadal on clay. But if Nadal and Thiem have a long battle in the semis, Djoko could win it. Should be a fun french open.

    • Djoko may not reach the final! He hadnt in 2017, 2018 and 2019, so it’s not a sure thing that he’ll reach the final.

      I’ve doubts about Thiem on clay this year as he has no warm ups, and the FO is only two weeks after the USO, so he’ll have a hard time recovering (Zverev too).

      I don’t know about the rest of the players, none of them seem impressive enough to suggest any major upset(s) at the FO.

  4. Nadal is still the favourite but not by much this time.Conditions won’t help him this time of year.Thiems already got his Slam,I’d like to see Tsitsi or Zverev win. I don’t mind,just looking forward to watching it .

  5. If stan is in djokos round of 16…there can be a big upset..both djoko n rafa won’t want thiem in semis …

    I don’t think rafa will win it due to conditions ,roof , lack of match play..I’m just hoping Djokovic does not either

  6. Yeah Djoko playing the mental game as well. Similar to the roof at wimby 2018 where he knew fully well it will be a disadvantage for rafa. Yeah and agree Thiem is even more an unknown considering he has been playing on the hard courts and will be returning to clay after a while and thiem unlike the big 4 has not proven yet that he can string two decent tournaments on a trot. And Rafa has earned the right to be favorite on clay no matter what the circumstances. 😀 he has won it with rain, wind, sun. Perhaps this time under lights. All said and done, even novak has not beaten rafa on clay since 2016.

  7. Regardless of the conditions, Nadal is the favourite. Djokovic can play his mental games all he wants, it’s useless against rafa at the french. Even though I’m very disappointed with rafa with how he has handled this season especially withdrawing from the US open and coming into the french undercooked and his exasperating inferiority complex and too much respect towards some players, I believe he will win the french open.

    Rafa just has to get his groove back and he can do that in the early rounds. He was atrocious in rome quarters against diego but I believe his coach can see what we all saw in the horrid match and snap him back to reality by letting him know that on any given day his best tennis is better than djoko’s, thiem’s, diego’s and everybody else by a country mile on clay especially at the french. His forehand and the crazy spin it generates especially his FHDTL is a deadly weapon that can pulverise anybody on clay at the french eg french open final 2014 vs djoko. His backhand was an offensive weapon and a revelation at french open final 2017, he was hitting it CC and DTL at will and attacking it was a terrible mistake bc he was able to generate such power from it that it rivalled his forehand. And for heaven’s sake he can get back his serve which was really rock solid before on this surface especially his second serve. This is the rafa I know and admire so much and I believe will return at the french after finding his groove at the early rounds.

    He has done this before several times when he was a mess coming into the french but fine tuned his game by the early rounds to get to the later stages and deliver the knock out punch. Example: French open 2011 where isner of all people took rafa to five sets at the first round but at the quarters when rafa saw soderling he was like “Hell will freeze over before I lose to this guy again at the french open” and like that the king of clay was back to his best and the rest is history. Did the same at 2014 french when he met ferrer at the quarters.

    Rafa is the king of clay for a reason and I have the utmost respect for him at the french. His too good not to turn this around. Lest we forget as Vmk rightly said the so-called “invincible” djoko hasn’t beaten rafa on clay since 2016. It bears repeating bc people always trot out that rafa hasn’t beaten djoko on hard courts since 2013.

    If Rafa does find his groove at the french, He will win it regardless of djoko, mind games, thiem, diego, rain, weather, roof, lighting and whatever. I am optimistic that he will win maybe bc I am a diehard rafa fan but also because he has done it several times when I was really doubtful. Optimism aside, Rafa remains the prohibitive favourite until proven otherwise. Why? Because 12 french opens says so.

    Vamos Rafa

    • Why are you upset about Rafa not going for the USO? If he went, he would have problem defending his FO title, given his age and that the FO is only two weeks away from the end of the USO, unless you expect him to lose early there, like Djoko.

      I think Rafa has/had made the right choice, he was sharp vs Busta in the first match, was OK against Lajovic next.

      Against Schwarzman, he was a bit waried as he knew what Schwarzman was capable of. To me, he’s still lacking the match sharpness, esp the mental aspect of it. He wasn’t confident and so he preferred going CC all the time with his FH.

      Under normal circumstances, when Rafa lost the first set, he would make adjustments in the second (like the way he did against Thiem in the FO final last year – won the first, lost the second and then in the third he immediately changed his game plan and rushed to the net more often).

      In this Rome QF, Rafa wasn’t able to make any changes and, even so, he had his chances to win the second set but he lost serve after breaking serve, so often hence he lost the match.

      Rafa was playing from so far back, his shots landed so often in the service box of Schwarzman and his serve was atrocious. Imo, that’s because he’s lacking in confidence (we have seen all these before when he wasn’t confident with his own game, like during 2015).

      He won’t make the same mistakes again at the FO, because he knows the FO is very important to him, he’s not that young anymore.

      • I agree with lucky. Rafa did the right thing in not playing the USO. I think playing on hard court and then transitioning right away to clay, would not be good for him.

        I also agree with Lucky’s take on the loss to Diego in Rome. Rafa was not ready mentally. He is brilliant at adjusting mid match and changing tactics. It’s also worth remembering that Diego has pushed Rafa in matches. He may never have won in the past, but he made Rsfa work hard for the win. It’s physically demanding to play him. Rafa’s serve was atrocious and that’s why he could not come back in the second set. Every time he broke back he then lost his serve. His timing was off on his DTL forehand. He was going for that shot to no avail. We know his important it is for Rafa to have the DTL forehand working.

        As for this nonsense about Novak being the favorite this time, that is just rubbish. Rafa is the favorite at RG. Period. Twelve RG titles gives him status as the favorite, even under these conditions. Rafa can play himself into form.

        Personally, I think that they should have cancelled tennis until next year. I think it’s been tough with the virus still raging and no fans in the stands and not having played for so much of the year.

        One final point. Novak was not robbed of anything at the USO. If he feels that way then he did not learn his lesson. Hitting a lineswoman in the throat was unfortunate. But there are better ways to manage frustration in a match. Novak was rightfully defaulted. Nobody robbed him of anything. I also do not agree that the USO was his for the taking.

  8. Rafa’s the favorite, of course! Unlike Djokovic Rafa speaks softly but carries a very big stick! 🙂 Djoko’s not all talk but the fact that he feels the need to list reasons he should win RG this year is…questionable. I’m more worried about Thiem, frankly. Clay is still Thiem’s best surface and I don’t think we can count on him panicking and playing like a shadow of himself at RG.

  9. Well no one thought Thiem was going to win the USO after he lost at cincy to someone I have never heard of getting around 3 games, did they?!
    If one sees this abject failure( ie bombing in the lead up tournament to a slam) as a marker for future greatness then Rafa is doing fine. Although not as well as Dom since Dom lost to a nonentity while Diego is dangerous for anyone to play on clay.
    Not withstanding these favourable auspices I really hope Rafa gets a great draw ie no Diego in his half and no Dom. I also hope Nole has to play Stanimal. If all these circumstances come true I will definitely relax a bit.

  10. I think Djokovic is the favorite. Clay court tennis when it’s hot and dry in May is different than cooler and humid in October. The ball won’t fly off the court as much and that’s when Nadal is vulnerable (like in the Schwartzman match). Also, I fully expect Djokovic to be out for blood after he was (in his mind) robbed of an easy Slam win at the US Open.

    I’m a Nadal fan but really think this is Novak’s slam to lose. Combine that with Nadal only playing 6 sets on clay as a warmup as opposed to Madrid, Monte Carlo, Barcelona, and Rome like in every other year and I think it’s the perfect storm.

  11. I read today that RG is down to 1000 fans per day and on Chatrier only. I really think it should be cancelled. Would be a pity but covid 19 is ruling this year and Australia seems to think it’ll still be with us next year. 🙁

      • Ricky I agree with you. The French open will not be cancelled. There’s no point hoping it will be. There should not be any fans at all bc of the pandemic. They should do it exactly like US open. US is the worst hit country by Covid and yet they held the US open and managed to pull it off somewhat successfully. The French can do the same by having no fans at all and taking the precautionary measures that the US open took.

        Hoping that it will be cancelled or that tennis should have been cancelled all year till next year is pointless. It won’t be cancelled and tennis has been going on since August. Since that is the case and going to be the case, they should ensure the utmost safety of the players by ensuring no fans at all at the stadium for starters.

        To be frank, if I was any of the players, I’d be very worried having to play at Rolland Garros with 1000 spectators. That’s dangerous with regards to the pandemic. Let’s hope they change that.

        • Definitely should be without fans if they do play. Still potentially dangerous for the players in the locker room, though. And don’t forget about all the ball kids.

  12. Nadal did not win RG nine consecutive times between 2005 and 2014; Ricky is forgetting someone.
    If they do play RG this year, Rafa is still the favorite -as he will remain until someone beats him again here.
    I agree with Ramara: I think they should cancel the tournament this year. Covid is getting worse in France by the day and could be leading to a spike just around the time the tournament starts.

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