What is the hardest possible draw for Alcaraz and Djokovic at the U.S. Open?

Following their epic final at the Western & Southern Open, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic now turn their attention to the U.S. Open.

As the top two players in the rankings, respectively, Alcaraz and Djokovic will be seeded No. 1 and No. 2 for the season’s fourth and final Grand Slam when the draw is revealed on Thursday. However, that never guarantees an easy draw at any tournament and the 2023 U.S. Open is no exception.

Let’s take a look at the toughest possible path to the final for the world No. 1 and No. 2.

First and second round: Matteo Berrettini and Andy Murray

Even if he isn’t at his absolute best right now, Berrettini has to be considered the most dangerous unseeded floater in the field. He is a former Grand Slam finalist (Wimbledon 2021) and has been to the U.S. Open semifinals (2019). In fact, the Italian has reached at least the quarterfinals of every slam (French Open QFs in 2021 and Australian Open SFs in 2022). Berrettini advanced to round four at the All-England Club earlier this summer, so his game appears to be coming around.

Murray’s upside may not be as high, but as a three-time major winner (including the U.S. Open in 2012) he isn’t someone you want to see as a seeded player in the early rounds. The 36-year-old Scot has been playing well (when healthy) and has played some absolute thrillers against marquee opponents at Grand Slams over the past few seasons.

Other possibilities: Stan Wawrinka, Jiri Lehecka, Ben Shelton, Jack Draper, Dominic Thiem, Gael Monfils, Kei Nishikori

Third round: Sebastian Korda

The 25-32 contingent is strong but at the same time not overly dangerous. Although there aren’t any super easy outs, there also aren’t guys who are going to strike fear into the top eight seeds. Arguably the one with the most potential is Korda, who already this season has accomplished the feat of upsetting a top-eight seed in the third round of a major. The 29th-seeded Korda beat seventh-seeded Daniil Medvedev in straight sets on the American’s eventual way to the Australian Open quarterfinals. Korda has been plagued by a wrist injury ever since, but he is starting to show some signs of life just in time for his home slam.

Other possibilities: Alexander Bublik, Borna Coric

Fourth round: Tommy Paul

We know who definitely doesn’t want to see Tommy Paul: Carlos Alcaraz! Their head-to-head series is tied at 2-2, with Paul having prevailed each of the last two seasons in Canada. They also faced each other in Cincinnati and Alcaraz just barely survived a three-set struggle. The other three 13-16 seeds are Alex de Minaur, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Cameron Norrie. De Minaur and Norrie don’t have enough firepower to seriously threaten the best players in the world, while Auger-Aliassime has been in a huge slump dating back to March.

Quarterfinals: Jannik Sinner

Sinner is up to No. 6 in the world and based on current form has to be considered either the third or fourth favorite (possibly also behind Medvedev) to win the U.S. Open. The 21-year-old Italian has reached at least the quarterfinals of every major and has pushed both Alcaraz (2022 U.S. Open) and Djokovic (2022 Wimbledon) to five sets. The other 5-8 seeds are Casper Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Andrey Rublev. Ruud reached the U.S. Open final last summer, Tsitsipas’ accolades speak for themselves, and Rublev’s forehand alone makes him dangerous, but none can compete with Sinner right now. No top-four seed wants Sinner in his quarter of the bracket.

Semifinals: Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev or Holger Rune in the semis?!?! Hmmm…that doesn’t take much thought. Rune just barely managed to get the all-important No. 4 seed ahead of Ruud, Sinner, Tsitsipas, and Rublev–giving him his own quarter in the U.S. Open draw. The 20-year-old is surely a slam title contender in the future, but he has been dealing with injury issues and hasn’t won a match since Wimbledon. Medvedev, on the other hand, has reached the U.S. Open final twice in the last four years and won it in 2021. Yeah, it’s safe to say Alcaraz and Djokovic want Rune in their half.

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