Vienna SF previews and predictions: Medvedev vs. Tsitsipas, Sinner vs. Rublev

A blockbuster semifinal lineup at the ATP 500 in Vienna features the top four seeds: Daniil Medvedev, Jannik Sinner, Andrey Rublev, and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Three of the four have already clinched spots in Turin.

(1) Daniil Medvedev vs. (4) Stefanos Tsitsipas

Medvedev and Tsitsipas will be squaring off for the 13th time in their careers when they battle for a place in the final of the Erste Bank Open on Saturday. The head-to-head series stands at 8-4 in favor Medvedev, who won their only previous meeting this season via a 7-5, 7-5 decision in the semis of the Rome Masters. Tsitsipas has won two of their three previous indoor hard-court encounters, but their last one required a third-set tiebreaker–which the Greek won at the 2022 Nitto ATP Finals.

At present, a sizable edge in form goes to Medvedev. The third-ranked Russian is 63-14 this season and as usual is ending the year in style. He finished runner-up at the U.S. Open (lost to Novak Djokovic) and also reached the Beijing title match (lost to Jannik Sinner). This week Medvedev has advanced with victories over Arthur Fils, Grigor Dimitrov, and Karen Khachanov. Tsitsipas earned his place in the semis by taking out Dominic Thiem, Tomas Machac, and Borna Gojo, but the seventh-ranked Greek had been just 6-7 in his last 13 matches heading into Vienna. Indoor hard courts really aren’t a great surface for Tsitsipas, so Medvedev should take care of business as a considerable favorite on Saturday.

Pick: Medvedev in 2

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(3) Andrey Rublev vs. (2) Jannik Sinner

Sinner vs. Rublev doesn’t have the rivalry factor of Medvedev vs. Tsitsipas, but this could end up being the best match of the entire tournament in terms of competitiveness and quality. Although Sinner is an obvious favorite, Rublev cannot be discounted. The fifth-ranked Russian is wrapping up perhaps his most consistent year ever, one that saw him clinch a spot in the Nitto ATP Finals on Thursday. The reigning Monte-Carlo champion was runner-up at the recent Shanghai Masters and he has picked up Vienna wins at the expense of Alexei Popyrin, Matteo Arnaldi, and Alexander Zverev.

Of course, basically no one is hotter than Sinner these days. The fourth-ranked Italian is 54-14 in 2023 and his fall swing includes defeats of Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz en route to the Beijing title. So far in Vienna he has ousted Ben Shelton, Lorenzo Sonego, and Frances Tiafoe without dropping a single set. Rublev may be able to change that statistic, but Sinner is looking like the best player this week at what might as well be a home tournament for him.

Pick: Sinner in 3

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