First-round action in Vienna will resume on Tuesday, when fan favorite Dominic Thiem will kick off his week against Tommy Paul. Another American has a tough opener on his hands, as Frances Tiafoe is facing Hubert Hurkacz.
Dominic Thiem vs. Tommy Paul
Paul and Thiem will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers when they clash in round one of the Erste Bank Open on Tuesday. Their only previous meeting came three years ago at the French Open, where Thiem prevailed 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-2. The current situation gives Paul a much more realistic chance, with favorable conditions and a less dominant Thiem. Right now the 28-year-old Austrian is somewhere between his peak (2019 and 2020) and rock bottom (summer of 2021 until summer of 2022). He is back from a wrist injury and has rounded into form with back-to-back semifinal showings in Gijon and Antwerp preceded by another semifinal in Gstaad and a pair of quarterfinal performances.
The entire 2022 campaign has been a consistent one for Paul, who registers two spots off his career-high ranking at No. 30. Although the 25-year-old American has cooled off just a bit of late, he has not lost in the opening round of a tournament since ‘s-Hertogenbosch in June. It probably won’t be easy, but look for that streak to continue.
Pick: Paul in 3
(5) Hubert Hurkacz vs. Frances Tiafoe
Hurkacz is in serious Nitto ATP Finals contention, but he needs a big result in either Vienna or Paris next week in order to steal a spot from Daniil Medvedev, Andrey Rublev, or Felix Auger-Aliassime. The 25-year-old Pole is 10th in the race to Turin, but a recent inability to make it past the semifinals in either Metz, Astana, or Antwerp has prevented him from going higher. Outside of slams, Hurkacz has been consistent; he simply needs something spectacular to happen in the next two weeks.
Up first for the No. 5 seed on Tuesday is a fifth career encounter with Tiafoe. The head-to-head series stands at 2-2; Tiafoe won their only previous indoor contest at the 2018 NextGen ATP Finals, but Hurkacz has won two in a row overall (Winston-Salem in 2019 and Indian Wells in 2021). Tiafoe was a surprise semifinalist at the U.S. Open this summer and finished runner-up in Tokyo, but he got blown out by Emil Ruusuvuori 6-1, 6-2 in last week’s Stockholm quarters. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Tiafoe is running out of gas down the stretch, whereas Hurkacz has to be motivated to boost his year-end championship chances.
Pick: Hurkacz in 2
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