First-round action at the ATP 500 in Vienna continues on Tuesday, when Austria’s own Dominic Thiem goes up against Luciano Darderi. The winner of that match will face either Jack Draper or Kei Nishikori in the last 16.
(WC) Dominic Thiem vs. Luciano Darderi
Thiem will be playing in the final tournament of his career when he takes the court in round one of the Erste Bank Open on Tuesday night. The 31-year-old Austrian was never able to completely heal from 2021 wrist surgery, which is the reason why he announced during the summer that this season would be his last on tour. Thiem, who captured the 2020 U.S. Open title and peaked at No. 3 in the world, has won just a single main-draw match at the ATP level in 2024 (defeated Maximilian Marterer 6-1, 6-7(3), 6-4 in Estoril).
Up first for the world No. 318 is Darderi, whom Thiem has never faced. Darderi has arrived in 2024, with 23 of his 24 main-tour match victories coming this year. That has propelled the Italian to No. 42 in the world, putting him in distant contention for a seed at the 2025 Australian Open. Even though Darderi has basically zero experience on indoor hard courts, he is simply a much better player than Thiem at this point. It feels like Thiem will be saying goodbye in front of the home crowd on Tuesday.
Pick: Darderi in 2
(WC) Kei Nishikori vs. (7) Jack Draper
From a physical standpoint, Draper and Nishikori are two of the least reliable players on tour. As such, absolutely anything could happen in this one. All things being equal, though, Draper is the superior player–and it’s really not that close given that the injury-plagued Nishikori is past his prime. The 34-year-old did well to reach the Tokyo quarterfinals in front of his Japanese fans last month, but he is just 8-8 at the ATP level in 2024 and down at No. 141 in the rankings.
Draper has actually been somewhat healthy this season, at least relative to his previous standards. The result is 32 match wins and a career-high ranking of 18th in the world. Highlights include his first ATP title on the grass courts of Stuttgart and a semifinal run at the U.S. Open. Draper has not done anything since leaving New York and he retired from his last match in Tokyo due to an abdominal issue, so he is a major question mark heading into Vienna. If the 22-year-old Brit is close to 100 percent, though, he should be too good for Nishikori.
Pick: Draper in 2
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