U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Sinner vs. Draper

Jannik Sinner is trying to equal Carlos Alcaraz with a pair of Grand Slam titles in 2024. Heading into semifinal action at the U.S. Open, nobody in the top 10 stands in Sinner’s way.

Jack Draper gets the next shot at Sinner on Friday before the winner of that contest battles either Taylor Fritz or Frances Tiafoe for the title. This marks a second-ever meeting between good friends who recently played doubles with each other at the Montreal Masters. Their only previous encounter came more than three years ago, when Draper prevailed 7-6(6), 7-6(2) on the grass courts of Queen’s Club in 2021.

Now, of course, Sinner is a whole different beast. The 23-year-old has climbed all the way to No. 1 in the world and is a major champion (2024 Australian Open) to go along with three Masters 1000 titles and a Davis Cup triumph for Italy last fall. Sinner boasts an amazing 53-5 record this season following wins in New York over Mackenzie McDonald, Alex Michelsen, Christopher O’Connell, Tommy Paul, and Daniil Medvedev.

Draper has also made massive improvements–albeit not to the extent of his opponent. The 22-year-old comes in at a career-high ranking of 25th and will break into the top 20 even if he loses on Friday. Draper has been in ruthless form this fortnight, ousting Zhizhen Zhang, Facundo Diaz Acosta, Botic van de Zandschulp, Tomas Machac, and Alex de Minaur without dropping a single set.

It’s good news for Draper that he is well rested, but at the same that kind of preparation for a showdown against Sinner may not be ideal. The left-hander’s first four opponents were ranked No. 41, No. 64, No. 74, and No. 39 before the 10th-ranked De Minaur was a shadow of his real self on Wednesday because of a hip injury.

In this one Draper will be running into an entirely different opponent on a stage he has never seen. He had never previously advanced past the fourth round of a major and he had gone further than the second round only twice. The Brit’s physicality has always been a question mark (it’s also worth noting that he had his right thigh wrapped against De Minaur) and Sinner will be the first opponent so far at Flushing Meadows to really test that aspect of Draper’s game.

Count on the Sinner train continuing to roll.

Pick: Sinner in 3

[yop_poll id=”1507″]