U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Fritz vs. Tiafoe

For the first time since 2009, an American man will play in a singles Grand Slam final. The question is: who will it be–either Taylor Fritz or Frances Tiafoe?

Fritz and Tiafoe will be facing each other for the eighth time in their careers when they meet again in the U.S. Open semis on Friday. It is the first all-American men’s singles semifinal in New York since Andre Agassi defeated Robby Ginepri in 2005. The winner will become the first American man to play in the championship match of a slam since Andy Roddick lost to Roger Federer at Wimbledon 15 years ago.

Tiafoe won their first-ever encounter 6-3, 2-6, 6-3 at the 2016 Indian Wells Masters, but since then it has been all Fritz. The current world No. 12 has reeled off six victories in a row and has won six consecutive sets at his compatriot’s expense; he also dominated their only major matchup 6-4, 6-3, 7-6(5) at the 2022 Australian Open. They most recently collided early last season in Acapulco, where Fritz prevailed 6-3, 6-4. All eight of seven of their previous matchups have come on hard courts (one indoors).

Of course, a confident Tiafoe will never go into any match with a defeatist attitude–especially on his Arthur Ashe Stadium stomping rounds. This is by far the world No. 20’s favorite tournament, as this is his second semifinal appearance and he also reached the quarterfinals last summer. Tiafoe’s latest run in New York has come at the expense of Aleksandar Kovacevic, Alexander Shevchenko, Ben Shelton, Alexei Popyrin, and Grigor Dimitrov.

Whereas Tiafoe started to turn around a disappointing season with a third-round performance at Wimbledon, Fritz has been in awesome form basically the entire year. The 26-year-old boasts a 43-16 record for his 2024 campaign with titles in Delray Beach and Eastbourne plus quarterfinal performances at the Aussie Open and Wimbledon. Now he is into the semis of a slam for the first time following wins over Camilo Ugo Carabelli, Matteo Berrettini, Joao Comesana, Casper Ruud, and Alexander Zverev. Despite a difficult draw, Fritz has dropped a grand total of two sets.

Now either Fritz or Tiafoe will end a 15-year drought on Friday.

“That’s going to be a lot of fun; that’s going to be just electric,” Fritz said of the upcoming battle. “Yeah, I think [it will] be awesome for the fans, as well, to be guaranteed that one of us is going to be going to the finals.”

“I think we have kind of always pushed each other,” Tiafoe noted. “Now I think it’s great that we get to compete against each other in such a big match. I’m happy for him; I know he’s happy for me.

“Let the best man win come Friday. It’s going to be epic.”

Tiafoe needs this to be epic, because the only way he can win it is if he keeps it close and gets the crowd fired up and on his side–even against a fellow American. In terms of actual tennis, Fritz is playing better than his countryman and has absolutely dominated the head-to-head series. It is the biggest all-American men’s match in more than a decade, but it’s one that may not be as competitive as the fans would like.

Pick: Fritz in 4

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