U.S. Open semifinal expert picks: Djokovic vs. Zverev, Medvedev vs. Auger-Aliassime

Expert picks are back for a blockbuster U.S. Open semifinal lineup, which will play out on Friday. Felix Auger-Aliassime is the lone surprise of the quartet, and he will go up against Daniil Medvedev. Novak Djokovic’s bid for the calendar-year Grand Slam continues against Alexander Zverev.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (4) Alexander Zverev

Ricky: After watching the last two Australian Open finals and more recent Grand Slam finals at the French Open and Olympics, I’m not picking anyone from the younger generation to beat Djokovic at a slam–especially not when it gets down to the business end of the tournament. It’s as simple as that. Yes, the world No. 1 lost to Zverev at the Tokyo Olympics, but that’s not the same as a major–and it’s not a best-of-five situation. Djokovic simply goes into a different gear on this stage, and he is doing it to an even greater extent than usual with the calendar-year Grand Slam on the line. It’s obvious from his previous performances this fortnight that he will give opponents a chance for a while, but he will shut the door when the going gets tough. Zverev, who is on a 16-match winning streak, is playing well enough to test the top seed longer and harder than anyone else. But the German won’t be able to do it for four-plus hours in a slam semi. Djokovic in 4: 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-4, 6-3.

Cheryl: For the first time this tournament, Djokovic is playing someone who has a legitimate chance to beat him. Zverev snagged the gold medal out from under Djokovic at the Tokyo Olympics a couple months ago, a surprise to all and sundry since the Serb was the heavy favorite. So the question here isn’t whether Zverev CAN beat him, but whether he actually WILL. And the answer to that question is…probably not. Zverev doesn’t have service yips anymore and he can legitimately stake a claim as one of the top three in-form players in the world right now, but unfortunately for him both guys ahead of him are still in the tournament (Djokovic and Medvedev). Moreover, Djokovic is perhaps the greatest best-of-five player of all time thanks to his superior conditioning and his ability to lose sets but not losing his focus. Expect Zverev to come out serving big and attempt to keep points relatively short, as it’s a well-known occupational hazard to trade groundstrokes with Djokovic. Still, the Serb knows how to win, and history is on the line. He WANTS that calendar slam, and it’s hard to imagine that Zverev is going to stop him. Djokovic in 5: 4-6, 7-5, 7-6, 3-6, 6-2.

Pete: Suddenly, the Djokovic-Zverev rivalry is front and center on the ATP Tour as they will play now for the fifth time in the last 10 months and 10th time overall. Djokovic appeared to have a sixth consecutive win in the series at the Tokyo Olympics but suddenly hit the wall, and the German continued his fine play to win that semifinal and later the gold medal. In fact, Djokovic had won 14 of their last 15 sets until dropping two in a row at the Olympics. A pair of impressive streaks are on the line this time with Djokovic riding a 26-match winning streak at the majors and Zverev winning his last 16 matches overall. While Zverev has been efficient on court, including winning his second-round match in just 74 minutes, Djokovic has had sluggish starts to matches–dropping the opening set in each of his last three encounters. Zverev nearly won the U.S. Open last year and is certainly in form in New York again this time. However, this is the 12th time that Djokovic has reached the semifinals. He is completely dialed in especially at this stage of slams and will refuse to let anything get in the way of the historical accomplishment he is determined to achieve with winning the title. Djokovic in 4: 5-7, 6-3, 6-4, 7-6(4).

(12) Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. (2) Daniil Medvedev

Ricky: Is this going to be competitive? Yes. Auger-Aliassime has been in outstanding form throughout the U.S. Open and he is serving well enough to keep any opponent on his heels. The Canadian has struck the fourth-most aces so far at this tournament (85) and is winning 81 percent of his first-serve points. But is an upset going to happen? It’s doubtful. Similar to playing against Djokovic, it is brutally difficult to outlast Medvedev in a best-of-five situation. The second-ranked Russian often plays a Rafael Nadal-like distance behind the baseline and will put ball after ball back in the court. He has dropped just one set this fortnight, to Botic van de Zandschulp in the quarters. Auger-Aliassime can power his way to a set just like van de Zandschulp did, but the 21-year-old doesn’t yet have the consistency to hang with Medvedev in a best-of-five. Medvedev in 4: 5-7, 6-2, 6-4, 6-4.

Cheryl: Auger-Aliassime has finally fulfilled the expectations that have surrounded him since he turned pro. The 21-year-old Canadian has been spectacular this fortnight, his form improving a bit each round. He has really hit his stride this summer, as he kicked things off with a quarterfinal showing at Wimbledon. That he runs into a brutally efficient Medvedev in the semis probably means his tournament ends on Friday, however. Medvedev has only dropped a single set in New York to inspired newcomer BVZ in the quarters. Other than that, the Russian has been laser-focused. Medvedev had his slam breakthrough at the 2019 U.S. Open, where he lost an epic five-set final to Nadal. The quick courts suit both players’ games, but Medvedev has more experience handling the big moments and he has been in slightly better form than Auger-Aliassime. The world No. 2 may look awkward with his lanky limbs and unconventional playing style, but he’s absolutely deadly on a hard court when he’s playing well–which he is. Medvedev in 4: 6-4, 6-4, 5-7, 6-2.

Pete: Medvedev is in familiar territory again in New York, having reached at least the semifinals for the third consecutive year. He is looking to reach his third major final in the last eight that have been played. Across the net this time is Auger-Aliassime, who after having difficulty with Russian Evgeny Donskoy in the opening round has steadied his game. With his run to the quarters at Wimbledon, Auger-Aliassime has won nine of his last 10 matches at majors. Medvedev has exceeded the two-hour mark just once in five matches and has only dropped one set in the tournament thus far. Both players have faced just one seed en route to the semifinals. This fact favors the Russian, as Auger-Aliassime will soon realize that the caliber of opposition has been ratcheted up considerably as he takes on the world No. 2. The well-earned place in the semifinals will be a positive going forward for the Canadian, but Medvedev’s firepower will simply be too much on this day. Medvedev in 3: 6-3, 7-5, 6-4.