U.S. Open R4 previews and predictions: Rublev vs. Dimitrov, Tiafoe vs. Popyrin

The bottom section of the U.S. Open draw has suddenly become wide open now that Novak Djokovic is out of the tournament. Andrey Rublev, Grigor Dimitrov, Frances Tiafoe, and Alexei Popyrin will be looking to capitalize on Sunday.

(6) Andrey Rublev vs. (9) Grigor Dimitrov

Rublev and Dimitrov will set aside their bromance and continue their rivalry when they battle for a quarterfinal place at the U.S. Open on Sunday. They have faced each other on seven previous occasions, with Rublev holding a 4-3 record. Their first-ever encounter came at this same tournament back in 2017, when Rublev–then just 19 years old–pulled off a 7-5, 7-6(3), 6-3 upset. Dimitrov once lead the head-to-head series 2-1, but the Russian has won three of their last four meetings–most recently via a 7-6(7), 6-3 decision in the Shanghai semifinals this past fall.

So far this fortnight Rublev has defeated Thiago Seyboth Wild, Arthur Rinderknech (from two sets down), and Jiri Lehecka. The 26-year-old has now won 11 matches during the hard-court summer, which includes a runner-up performance in Montreal. Dimitrov won just a single match combined in Montreal and Cincinnati but has been on top of his game at Flushing Meadowns, beating Kyrian Jacquet, Rinky Hijikata, and Tallon Griekspoor all in straight sets. Rublev has never had any trouble advancing to Grand Slam quarterfinals; he has done it 10 times. It’s there where he starts to struggle–especially from a mental standpoint. Look for the world No. 6 to once again put himself in position for a semifinal spot.

Pick: Rublev in 4

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(20) Frances Tiafoe vs. (28) Alexei Popyrin

Tiafoe probably figured he had set up a showdown against four-time U.S. Open champion Novak Djokovic when he outlasted fellow American Ben Shelton in five sets on Friday. Instead, it will be Popyrin on the other side of the net in round four after the Australian stunned Djokovic 6-4, 6-4, 2-6, 6-4. Thus the first-ever meeting between Tiafoe and Popyrin will come on one of the biggest stages in tennis–the second week of a Grand Slam.

Popyrin’s improbable result against Djokovic continues what his been the best stretch of his career. The 25-year-old reached the Wimbledon third round (lost to Djokovic in a fourth-set tiebreaker), advanced to the Paris Olympics third round, and captured a Masters 1000 title in Montreal. In the same timeframe Tiafoe has turned around what had been a dismal season. The 20th-ranked American pushed Carlos Alcaraz to five sets in the Wimbledon third round, posted a semifinal showing in Washington, D.C., and finished runner-up to Jannik Sinner in Cincinnati. This is a high-stakes matchup between two red-hot players–one that could go either way. A very slight edge goes to Tiafoe since he has home-court advantage and may mentally recover just a little bit better following his battle with Shelton than Popyrin on the heels of a monumental win over Djokovic.

Pick: Tiafoe in 5

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