Will it be an all-Russian quarterfinal in the top half of the U.S. Open draw? Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev hope that’s the case, but very tough respective matchups await in the form of Alex de Minaur and Jack Draper.
(3) Daniil Medvedev vs. (13) Alex de Minaur
Medvedev will get another shot at De Minaur when they meet again in the U.S. Open fourth round on Monday. They just faced each other in the Toronto quarterfinals, where De Minaur pulled off a 7-6(7), 7-5 upset. Medvedev still leads the head-to-head series 4-2, with all four of his victories coming on hard courts (one indoors).
De Minaur, who ended up reaching the Toronto final (lost to Jannik Sinner), opened in New York with a four-set win over Timofey Skatov and then destroyed both Yibing Wu (6-1, 6-2, 6-1) and Nicolas Jarry (6-1, 6-3, 6-2). Medvedev has played 10 sets this fortnight (lost one to Christopher O’Connell) and has dominated a whopping eight of them by 6-2 scorelines or worse. Both of these guys are absolutely on fire right now, so something has to give on Monday. In a Grand Slam setting, Medvedev will likely get revenge for his Toronto loss. The world No. 3 is a former U.S. Open champion (2021) and also finished runner-up in 2019 to go along with a runner-up performance at the 2022 Australian Open. De Minaur has been past the fourth round of a slam only once in his entire career (2020 U.S. Open). Their Toronto result notwithstanding, this really isn’t a great stylistic matchup for the 13th-ranked Aussie. Look for Medvedev to advance.
Pick: Medvedev in 4
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Jack Draper vs. (8) Andrey Rublev
Rublev has gotten plenty of good breaks so far at this tournament, which is exactly what the doctor ordered following immediate losses in both Toronto and Cincinnati. The eighth-ranked Russian was supposed to face Emil Ruusuvuori (who beat him in Cincinnati) in round one, but the Finn withdrew due to illness. Rublev was also on course to meet Matteo Berrettini in the third round, but the Italian retired against Arthur Rinderknech after rolling his ankle. Thus Rublev has advanced with wins over Arthur Cazaux, Gael Monfils, and Rinderknech.
The No. 8 seed’s favorable path may end against Draper, even though the British left-hander is ranked No. 123. Draper’s talent level is obviously much, much higher than that; he has simply been plagued by injuries. Healthy now, he is putting it all together in New York. Draper dropped only one set while beating Radu Albot, Hubert Hurkacz, and Michael Mmoh during week one. The 21-year-old was especially impressive against Hurkacz, whom he crushed 6-2, 6-4, 7-5. This is a great opportunity for Draper, who should be able to dictate much of the play with his power game and pick on Rublev’s backhand with his lefty serve and forehand.
Pick: Draper in 4
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WWW?
Med in 3; the new and improved Draper in 3
Not saying your prediction will be wrong but de Minaur has won their last 2 matches, so clearly this is a difficult match up for Medvedev.
Draper isn’t plagued by injuries, he just develops a limp when faced with adversity, and couldn’t back up his “upset” against Murray. Demon is a dolt that wins when he isn’t expected to, n loses when supposed to win. Both matches lie solely on the racquet of the Russians and whether or not they want it bad enough.