U.S. Open R2 previews and predictions: Fritz vs. Berrettini, Ruud vs. Monfils

The marquee matchup of the U.S. Open second round pits Taylor Fritz against Matteo Berrettini on Wednesday. Another blockbuster battle features former runner-up Casper Ruud and veteran Frenchman Gael Monfils.

Matteo Berrettini vs. (12) Taylor Fritz

Nobody wanted to see Berrettini’s name next to his in the U.S. Open draw. Unfortunately for Fritz, that is the case in round two. Because of physical problems (including an ankle injury last summer in New York that forced him to miss the remainder of 2023), Berrettini is down at No. 44 in the rankings and therefore unseeded for this Grand Slam. That makes him the most dangerous unseeded player in the field–especially following a recent 10-match winning streak that saw him capture back-to-back titles in Gstaad and Kitzbuhel. The Italian played just one hard-court warmup event and lost right away in Cincinnati to Holger Rune, but he is back in business with a straight-set rout of Albert Ramos-Vinolas on Monday.

Of course, this is also a very bad draw for Berrettini. Fritz is 3-0 lifetime in the head-to-head series, prevailing once on indoor hard courts (2019 Davis Cup) and twice outdoors (Indian Wells in 2021 and at the 2023 United Cup) while dropping just one set in the process. The 12th-ranked American continues to be in stellar form and he is 39-16 this year following a 7-5, 6-1, 6-2 victory over Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the opening round. Since struggling at slams early in his career, Fritz has been outstanding on the biggest stages in tennis dating back to 2022–with four quarterfinal appearances. That is another reason why he can be expected to scrape past an extremely dangerous opponent.

Pick: Fritz in 5

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(8) Casper Ruud vs. Gael Monfils

Ruud and Monfils will be squaring off for the third time in their careers on Wednesday. The head-to-head series stands at 1-1 and both matches have gone the distance. Monfils prevailed 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 on the red clay of Quito in 2018 before Ruud scored a 3-6, 7-6(3), 6-4 victory this spring at the Indian Wells Masters.

The latter result is actually an encouraging one for Monfils, since–as Daniil Medvedev infamously pointed out in 2023–Indian Wells is basically a clay-court tournament. On a relatively fast surface at Flushing Meadows, an in-form Monfils should have a great chance to pull off an upset. The 37-year-old Frenchman has played well at this event throughout his career and he stunned Carlos Alcaraz two weeks ago in Cincinnati. A mostly routine four-set win over Diego Schwartzman on Monday has provided Monfils with additional momentum. Moreover, Ruud has cooled off since a hot start to his 2024 campaign. Don’t be surprised if Monfils lays the foundation to make a relatively deep U.S. Open run by taking out Ruud on Wednesday.

Pick: Monfils in 4

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