U.S. Open R1 previews and predictions: Shelton vs. Thiem, Monfils vs. Schwartzman

The 2024 U.S. Open gets underway on Monday, when Ben Shelton kicks off his campaign in front of the home crowd against wild Dominic Thiem. Veterans Gael Monfils and Diego Schwartzman are also on the schedule.

(13) Ben Shelton vs. (WC) Dominic Thiem

The first match in Arthur Ashe Stadium at the 2024 U.S. Open will pit Shelton against Thiem on Monday afternoon. They are essentially finishing what they started last year, when a second-round showdown at Flushing Meadows ended in a Thiem retirement with Shelton leading 7-6(1), 1-0. Their only other encounter came last spring in Estoril, where Thiem had the advantage of playing on clay and cruised 6-2, 6-2.

Despite being just 30 years old, a struggling Thiem is wrapping up his career–unable to recover from 2021 wrist surgery. The Austrian, who won the 2020 U.S. Open and peaked as high as third in the rankings, is retiring this fall in Vienna. Relatively speaking, Shelton’s career is just taking off. The American is 21 years old, but he is already up to No. 13 in the world and has reached an Australian Open quarterfinal and a U.S. Open semifinal–both in 2023. This is a fun matchup on paper, but it will likely be lopsided on the court.

Pick: Shelton in 3

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Gael Monfils vs. (Q) Diego Schwartzman

Like Thiem, Schwartzman is also playing in his last U.S. Open. The 32-year-old Argentine will retire at home during the Golden Swing next February. Although Schwartzman is currently floundering at No. 246 in the rankings, he did extremely well to beat the odds and come through qualifying in New York. The former world No. 8 booked his spot in the main draw at the expense of Andrea Pellegrino, top qualifying seed Thiago Agustin Tirante, and rising Lithuanian Vilius Gaubas.

Up next for Schwartzman on Monday is a showdown against his fellow veteran, Monfils. This marks their sixth meeting, with Schwartzman leading the head-to-head series 3-2–including 2-1 on hard courts (all indoors). At 37 years old, Monfils is still ranked at a respectable 45th in the world. The Frenchman flashed his talent with an upset of a mentally and physically fatigued Carlos Alcaraz at the Cincinnati Masters, but he is still just 2-4 in his last six matches. Monfils is always a question mark from a physical standpoint, so if Schwartzman can simply hang around and turn this into a long match, an upset could be in the cards.

Pick: Schwartzman in 5

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