Tommy Paul draws red-hot Lorenzo Sonego (the recent Winston-Salem champion) in a U.S. Open first-round barnburner on Tuesday, while Sebastian Korda faces left-handed Frenchman Corentin Moutet.
(14) Tommy Paul vs. Lorenzo Sonego
Sonego comes into New York directly on the heels of his fourth career title, which he picked up in Winston-Salem on Saturday. The 48th-ranked is riding a wave of confidence into the first round. He completely shellacked Alex Michelsen in the final of Winston-Salem and will have two full days to rest (and really three), as he won’t play Paul until Tuesday night.
Paul has suffered a dip in form since he lost in the quarterfinals of the Olympics to Carlos Alcaraz. Early losses in both Montreal and Cincinnati mean that Paul comes into the U.S. Open with next to no summer hard-court matchplay. As Paul is a seasoned professional with a preference for hard courts, this would ordinarily not be cause for concern for the American, but as he runs into the in-form Sonego right away, this is one to watch for a potential upset.
Paul should still find his way through, but don’t be surprised if Sonego puts up a fight.
Cheryl pick: Paul in 4
Ricky pick: Paul in 3
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(16) Sebastian Korda vs. Corentin Moutet
Korda tore up the U.S. Open tuneup season. The American won the second title of his career at the 500-level event in Washington D.C. and followed that up with a run to the semifinals of Montreal. He will even come in plenty rested, as he lost early in Cincinnati. The problem for Korda is that he continues to underperform at the majors. He has not advanced past the third round in his last six slams and he ominously crashed out of Wimbledon in the first round after performing well in two warmup events.
Moutet has had difficulty with consistency. The world No. 69 is 11-11 on the season, with a single main-draw match victory in two events on summer hard courts. He elected to stay in Europe to compete for France in the Olympics and thus extended his clay season rather than travel to North America for the Montreal Masters.
On paper Korda should package this first round up without much difficulty, but his performance at Wimbledon after playing well on grass in the lead-in events gives me pause. And there’s the fact that the U.S. Open has strangely proven to be Korda’s worst major (he’s never made it past the second round in four attempts). The American should manage his way through, but a Moutet win wouldn’t be very much of an upset.
Cheryl pick: Korda in 5
Ricky pick: Korda in 3
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Paul in 4 or 5
Korda in 3
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