U.S. Open QF preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Rublev

It will be an all-Russian affair when Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev battle for a spot in the U.S. Open semifinals on Wednesday afternoon.

Medvedev is sweeping the head-to-head series 3-0 (2-0 at the ATP level) and 6-0 in total sets. He prevailed 6-3, 6-2 on the indoor hard courts of the 2016 Budapest Challenger, 6-2, 6-3 at the 2019 Cincinnati Masters, and 6-4, 7-5 a few months later in St. Petersburg.

That is not the only reason why Medvedev is a massive favorite in this one. The world No. 5 finished runner-up at last year’s U.S. Open, stopped only to Rafael Nadal in a five-set thriller. He is once again thriving at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, winning his first four matches of this event without dropping a set or even playing a set more competitive than 6-4.

Rublev surrendered a set at this U.S. Open for the first time on Monday, but he promptly recovered to erase 2019 semifinalist Matteo Berrettini 4-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3. The world No. 14 has been one of the best players on tour in 2020, boasting a 19-4 record and two titles.

Although Medvedev is just two years older (24 to 22), he has considerable edge in big-stage experience not only because of his 2019 U.S. Open run but also because he is a two-time Masters 1000 champion and a runner-up at another.

Rublev’s forehand is huge, but his serve is not yet good enough to overcome his countryman’s incredible defensive, counter-punching game. Plus, Medvedev is wielding plenty of firepower himself these days. The No. 3 seed is looking all-around too solid to donate a set, even to someone as formidable as Rublev.

Pick: Medvedev in 3