U.S. Open R3 previews and predictions: Thiem vs. Cilic, Bautista Agut vs. Pospisil

An all-seeded showdown at the U.S. Open on Saturday pits Dominic Thiem against Marin Cilic. Roberto Bautista Agut and Vasek Pospisil are also aiming for a place in the second week.

(31) Marin Cilic vs. (2) Dominic Thiem

Thiem and Cilic will be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers when they clash in round three of the U.S. Open on Saturday. Both of their previous encounters have gone Thiem’s way; 2-6, 7-6(4), 6-4 at the 2016 Brisbane event and 7-6(7), 6-4 at last summer’s Montreal Masters. This should be another good one, as a hard court is basically an even playing field for these two competitors. Thiem probably wouldn’t come close to losing even a set on clay, while Cilic would have to be considered the favorite on grass.

After losing right away at the Cincinnati Masters and struggling in his opening set against Jaume Munar on Tuesday, Thiem may be off to the races now. The second-seeded Austrian got a retirement from Munar after taking a two-set lead and then erased Sumit Nagal 6-3, 6-3, 6-2 in round two. Cilic came back from two sets to love down against Denis Kudla before scraping past Norbert Gombos 6-3, 1-6, 7-6(2), 7-5 on Thursday. Neither one of those results is particularly encouraging, so the veteran Croat is a clear underdog in this one. Still, he is a former U.S. Open champion (2014) who remains effective on relatively quick hard courts. This won’t be entirely straightforward for Thiem.

Pick: Thiem in 4

(8) Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Vasek Pospisil

This section of the draw was thought to produce a third-round showdown between Bautista Agut (a Cincinnati semifinalist) and Milos Raonic (the Cincinnati runner-up). Instead, Raonic was stunned by Pospisil–his fellow Canadian–6-7(1), 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-3 during second-round action. Thus it will be Bautista Agut vs. Pospisil for the fourth time in their careers. The Spaniard is sweeping the head-to-head series 3-0 (6-1 in total sets), but they have not faced each other since 2015.

A resurgent Pospisil is playing the best tennis of his career, and he will have to again on Saturday because Bautista Agut is doing the same. The No. 8 seed is 14-4 in 2020, with victories this week over Tennys Sandgren and Miomor Kecmanovic. Bautista Agut’s returning ability and the fact that he can get ball after ball back in play will likely get the best of Pospisil’s big serving and net-charging tactics. The world No. 94’s serve can keep him competitive for a while, but Bautista Agut will have a clear edge as the match progress and Pospisil’s injury timeout for a side issue against Raonic is a minor cause for concern.

Pick: Bautista Agut in 4