With Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev left as the two heavy favorites following Novak Djokovic’s exit, their semifinal showdown on Friday night was considered by many to be the de facto final.
If Thiem played like he had been in a Grand Slam final before, well, it’s because he has.
Now the Austrian will play in a fourth slam final–first at the U.S. Open–after defeating Medvedev 6-2, 7-6(7), 7-6(5). Thiem had never previously advanced past the quarterfinals at Flushing Meadows, but he is a two-time French Open runner-up and he lost to Djokovic in a five-set final at this year’s Australian Open.
There is no Big 3 opponent standing in the 27-year-old’s way at the last hurdle this time around. Djokovic was defaulted out of the tournament, while Rafael Nadal (clay-court preparation) and Roger Federer (injury) did not make the trip to New York City. Instead, Thiem and Alexander Zverev will be facing each other for the 10th time in their careers on Sunday afternoon.
Thiem is dominating the head-to-head series 7-2, although it is a closer 3-2 on hard courts because four of the world No. 3’s victories have come on clay. They most recently squared off in the semis of the 2020 Australian Open, with Thiem getting through a competitive 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(3), 7-6(4) contest. He is 3-0 lifetime at Zverev’s expense in majors, having prevailed in four sets at the 2016 French Open and via a 6-4, 6-2, 6-1 rout again at Roland Garros during 2018 quarterfinal action.
A similar scoreline in New York would not be surprising even on a surface less conducive to Thiem’s game than clay. After all, not only does he boast a huge edge in experience but also current form is massively in his favor. Thiem has been utterly dominant at this U.S. Open, losing only one set to Marin Cilic in the third round before thrashing Felix Auger-Aliassime and Alex de Minaur. From the second set against Auger-Aliassime through the first against Medvedev, the No. 2 seed won by scores of 6-1, 6-1, 6-1, 6-2, 6-4, and 6-2.
And it’s safe to say that Zverev is playing a lot more like Auger-Aliassime and de Minaur than he is like Medvedev. Although the seventh-ranked German displayed impressive mental strength to reach his first major final, his actual game has been mediocre at best. He survived a terrible quarterfinal against Borna Coric and then came close to getting blown out of the semis in straight sets by Pablo Carreno Busta before mounting a comeback to win in five.
Zverev has reached double-figures in the double-fault department three times already this fortnight. Either he will have to be more conservative on serve–which would allow Thiem to bludgeon returns–or he is going to blast more than few second serves at upwards of 130 MPH like he did against Carreno Busta and take the good (some extra free points) with the bad (more double-faults).
Neither option is a good one. Zverev is not consistent enough when he plays aggressively and a red-hot, confident Thiem will hit him off the court from the baseline if he goes back into borderline pushing mode.
Thiem has more game–by a lot–and more experience in this situation–also by a lot. It is hard to see this being anything other than a beatdown.
Pick: Thiem in 3
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Thiems time 64 62 75
Thiem deserves this one.. But, Zverev had won many masters and year end final as under dog, it works for him somehow.
“… and he lost to Djokovic in a five-set final at this year’s U.S. Open.”
oz open
Djoker in 5.
This could go to either. The one positioned closer to the baseline will win … https://www.138mph.com/dominic-thiem-vs-alexander-zverev-in-2020-us-open/
I can’t imagine a scenario where Zverev wins…wait – what if Thiem breaks a leg? H’mm, well, maybe if Thiem breaks both legs! As for Zverev’s comment that this match involves the “two best players in the world”…Spit take!
Zv looked great in that 5th set against PCB….but alas, that’s the only time he looked great….Thiem in 3.
Thiem leads 3-1 on hardcourt, 4-1 on clay. He should do it in 3. maybe 4 if the ankle slows him down and Zverev has an unreal serving day.
Thiem in 4.
Zverev takes the 1st set 6-2.
Thiem in 3 Lol
Thiem’s kamikaze tennis isn’t working today. Zverev is keeping the points very short denying Thiem the opportunity to control the rallies.
well losing 4 slam finals would be a lot. How do you recover from there?
WHAT is happening? Who are you and what have you done with Dominic Thiem? Thiem’s down 2 sets but he can still win IF he starts looking like Thiem again! Just what this tournament needs, another come from 2 sets down win. Asterisks anyone?
Thiems performance is a tragedy for a slam final.
Zverev is some beast when it comes to finals.. defeats roger on hard, djokovic on clay, thiem on clay, djokovic on hard at wtf and now this.. manages to lose isner in the miami final . Lol!
Hope thiem produces some medvedev like magic from last year
Took Thiem 2 and a half set to wake up. Thiem can easy win this in 5 if he just starts playing.
Vamos thiem! Not another us open heartbreaker for you!! Come on
Zverev had a brain snap, the slow ball was working for him and then he decided to come into the net. Crazy match. In the end, one of them had to lose for the other to win it.
Don’t think Thiem will take too much confidence from that victory. Who wouldve thought Zverev would lose leading 2:0 in the his next match.
Yasssss!!!!!!
Congrats to thiem!😃😃😃😃 looks like it will be a djoko rafa show at the french.. no way thiem is recovering from that
Vamos thiem. How he won that match with cramps and limping on the court is a mystery. So happy for him.
Yes, finally Thiem is a slam winner now! Congrats! I thought he’s going to be disappointed again, but…. Zverev is still young and his time will come but today, it’s Thiem’s moment. I’m happy for Thiem, he’s so happy, finally no disappointment this time.
Yeah sascha had a brain freeze in the tb.. could have thrown a few drop shots to test thiems legs.. life comes a full circle for zverev in two nights.. winning from two sets down to losing from two sets up
Literally last man standing…Zverev’s double fault woes really did him in when things got tight at the end.
Grats to Thiem! Asterisk and all.
Thiem did it the hard way. They both look totally exhausted. I don’t know how Thiem won the tiebreak! It was looking so curiously lopsided for the first two sets. But Thiem finally got going.
Congratulations to Thiem on his first slam win!
Vika was set down in semi to make a come back and won.. In final, she was set up and break up.. and lost
Zverev was 2 set down in semi and won.. and 2 set up and break up in final and lost
Considering this was a slam played during a pandemic without fans or the big 3, it wasn’t bad. Both finals produced some drama, at the very least. And congrats to Dominic Thiem for toughing out his first slam title! I’m sure it won’t be the last.
Congrats Theim! Very well deserved. To win nit playing ure best is something special! Enjoy ure win and wishing you the best for the upcoming season!!!