U.S. Open final preview and prediction: Sabalenka vs. Pegula

The two most in-form players on the WTA Tour will battle for the U.S. Open title when Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula square off on Saturday afternoon in New York.

Sabalenka leads the head-to-head series 5-2 after most recently defeating Pegula 6-3, 7-5 in last month’s Cincinnati final. However, it is all tied up at two wins apiece on hard courts (three of the Belarusian’s victories have come on clay). Pegula’s latest defeat of Sabalenka came this past fall at the WTA Finals in Cancun via a 6-4, 6-3 decision.

Although the American is a significant underdog, she has to like her chances of at least being competitive. Pegula kept their Cincinnati match close enough even though she was fatigued following a Toronto title right beforehand and the court in Cincy was playing lightning fast. The world No. 6 will have a better shot at withstanding Sabalenka’s power in slightly slower conditions at Flushing Meadows. Coming off back-to-back WTA 1000 finals (one title, one runner-up), Pegula has remained hot with a U.S. Open run that features wins over Iga Swiatek and Karolina Muchova.

Sabalenka lost early in Toronto but rolled to the Cincinnati trophy with victories not only over Pegula but also Elina Svitolina and Swiatek (6-3, 6-3 in the semifinals). The world No. 2, who was runner-up to Coco Gauff at the U.S. Open last year, is back in the title match and coming off defeats of Qinwen Zheng and Emma Navarro. She has dropped just one set this fortnight, to Ekaterina Alexandrova in the third round.

There is no question that Sabalenka is the best hard-court player on tour right now. She should have the edge on Saturday, but it won’t be easy to close it out mentally and a confident Pegula will likely provide a serious test.

Pick: Sabalenka in 3

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