Novak Djokovic is making his return to the U.S. Open and Carlos Alcaraz has climbed to No. 1 in the world with two Grand Slam titles in tow, but the title in New York is still more up for grabs than it was during the Big 3 era. Gone are the days when only Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer had a realistic chance of lifting any and every major title. Although Djokovic and Alcaraz are obviously the two favorites, guys like Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner cannot be discounted.
With main-draw action beginning on Monday, it’s time to break down the 2023 men’s singles draw.
Alcaraz’s quarter
This isn’t any way to treat your No. 1 seed (and the defending champion, for that matter)! Alcaraz’s section—and entire half—of the U.S. Open bracket is absolutely loaded. The 20-year-old Spaniard finds himself in a quarter with Sinner, Alexander Zverev, Andy Murray, and Stan Wawrinka. Fortunately for Alcaraz, it probably won’t get tough for him until the quarterfinals. That’s because Sinner, Zverev, Murray, and Wawrinka are all in the other half of this quarter. Murray could face Grigor Dimitrov in round two, while possible third-round showdowns are Zverev vs. Murray and Sinner vs. Wawrinka.
Best first-round matchup — (24) Tallon Griekspoor vs. Arthur Fils
Fils has been one of the tour’s breakout stars in 2023 and Griekspoor is also enjoying his best season as a professional (by far). The result should be an extremely competitive and high-quality contest. Both guys are first-time ATP title winners this year—Griekspoor in Pune and ‘s-Hertogenbosch, Fils in front of the French crowd on the red clay of Lyon.
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Best potential second-round matchup – Andy Murray vs. (19) Grigor Dimitrov
Best potential third-round matchup – Stan Wawrinka vs. (6) Jannik Sinner
Possible surprises – Tennis fans can only hope that we finally get another Alcaraz-Sinner matchup in the quarterfinals. However, there is one man who can prevent it: Zverev. More than a year removed from his ankle injury at the French Open, the 12th-ranked German is once again playing his best tennis. Moreover, he is 3-1 lifetime against Sinner and upset Alcaraz at Roland Garros last spring one round prior to getting hurt against Nadal. The possibility of Zverev emerging from this quarter cannot be entirely dismissed. Also keep an eye on the Griekspoor-Cameron Norrie section, where an unseeded player like Fils, Thanasi Kokkinakis, or Alexander Shevchenko could make it to round four.
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Medvedev’s quarter
Although Medvedev is in the more difficult top half, his draw is actually decent—much better than last year, for example, when he had to face Nick Kyrgios in the fourth round (Kyrgios won in four sets). Prior to that result, Medvedev’s three most recent U.S. Open finishes were runner-up, semifinals, and champion. The third-ranked Russian could run into a red-hot Max Purcell in round two, Alex de Minaur (who beat him in Toronto) in the last 16, and Hubert Hurkacz in the quarters. That isn’t a cakewalk, but Medvedev should take care of business.
Best first-round matchup — (29) Ugo Humbert vs. Matteo Berrettini
Which Berrettini will show up in New York—the one who has been injured for basically a year now, or the one who has reached the quarters at all four majors, the semis at three of the four, and the final of one (Wimbledon in 2021)? The Italian’s four most recent U.S. Open results are semifinals, fourth round, quarterfinals, and quarterfinals. Berrettini may be the unseeded player in this matchup, but he probably has to be considered the favorite. But the good version of himself will need to be on display, because Humbert has a ton of talent and is finally putting it together this season.
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Best potential second-round matchup – Gael Monfils vs. (8) Andrey Rublev
Best potential third-round matchup – (11) Karen Khachanov vs. (17) Hubert Hurkacz
Possible surprises — John Isner is playing the final tournament of his career and is obviously no longer a real threat at Grand Slams. Still, he has a chance to reach at least the third round at Flushing Meadows—which at this point in time would be a great result for him. Khachanov is a possible second-round opponent, but the Russian has been injured and may not even end up playing the U.S. Open. Additionally, an unseeded fourth-round entrant in the Humbert-Andrey Rublev section is very possible, most likely either Berrettini, Emil Ruusuvuori, or Gael Monfils.
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Rune’s quarter
Rune’s quarter was always the place everyone else wanted to be (compared to that of Alcaraz, Djokovic, or Medvedev), and that became the case to an even greater extent when Casper Ruud landed in it. With neither Rune nor Ruud in good form, this section is totally up for grabs. Frances Tiafoe and Tommy Paul are the next highest-ranked players and they both have a great chance to capitalize. Tiafoe reached the semis in New York last summer, while Paul advanced to the last four in Melbourne at the beginning of this season and continues to play awesome tennis. You also can’t discount Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Alexander Bublik, Sebastian Korda, Jiri Lehecka, and Ben Shelton. This quarter isn’t top heavy, but its depth makes it very interesting.
Best first-round matchup — (25) Alexander Bublik vs. Dominic Thiem
Their only previous meeting came in round two of a Grand Slam—at the 2019 French Open. As a massive favorite on clay, Thiem survived 6-3, 6-7(7), 6-3, 7-5. Now it is Bublik who has the advantage based on both current form and quicker hard-court conditions. Of course, Thiem is a former world No. 3 and U.S. Open champion (2020). Even in his suboptimal state right now, the Austrian cannot be written off.
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Best potential second-round matchup – Jiri Lehecka vs. (4) Holger Rune
Best potential third-round matchup – (14) Tommy Paul vs. (21) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Possible surprises — Korda withdrew prior to the Winston-Salem semifinals, but if it was just a precautionary move and his ankle is 100 percent then I think American men have a decent chance to sweep the four fourth-round spots in this section (Korda, Tiafoe, Paul, and Shelton). Tiafoe and Paul are playing the best tennis of that bunch and already have Grand Slam semifinal experience, so they would have the edge if those matchups become a reality.
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Djokovic’s quarter
Djokovic fans were moaning and groaning about no live stream to watch for the draw ceremony, already conspiring about the draw their man would receive. Well, it’s safe to say he got an absolutely dream draw with Medvedev, Sinner, and many others on the opposite side. Djokovic will almost certainly coast into the quarterfinals before meeting either Stefanos Tsitsipas or Taylor Fritz. Tsitsipas is the other top-eight seed in this quarter and has lots of successful Grand Slam experience (albeit no titles), but Fritz has mostly been on fire in 2023. That potential fourth-round battle could go either way.
Best first-round matchup — (15) Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Mackenzie McDonald
This could, of course, end up being a clunker. You pretty much always know what McDonald is going to bring to the table, but that certainly isn’t the case with Auger-Alliasime. The world No. 15 has been a complete disaster dating back to March, but somewhere in there is talent capable of being No. 1 in the world a future major champion. If Auger-Aliassime comes to play, this will be fun contrast in styles between McDonald’s counter-punching and the Canadian’s offense.
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Best potential second-round matchup – Miomir Kecmanovic vs. (9) Taylor Fritz
Best potential third-round matchup – (7) Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. (28) Chris Eubanks
Possible surprises — In this section, Fritz is the only seeded player other than Djokovic who is playing great tennis at the moment and the ninth-ranked American has consistently underwhelmed at majors. That means outside of Djokovic, a whole host of upsets could take place. There are tons of qualifiers in this quarter (eight of the 16, to be exact), so it would be no surprise to see one in the fouth round if not even all the way in the quarterfinals. McDonald could also make a deep run if he gets past Auger-Aliassime on Monday.
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who ya got?